黄河流域粮食生产韧性与水资源承载力时空耦合、演变轨迹及驱动因素

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.643

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

探究黄河流域粮食生产韧性与水资源承载力的内在关联及驱动因素，对黄河流域高质量发展具有重要意义。以黄河流域9省区为研究对象，通过构建粮食生产韧性与水资源承载力评价指标体系，综合运用熵值法、耦合协调度模型、随机森林等方法，系统分析了2014—2023年2系统综合发展水平、耦合协调时空演变特征及驱动因素。结果表明：（1） 2014—2023年黄河流域粮食生产韧性水平呈稳步上升趋势，水资源承载力则表现出“上升-波动调整”态势。（2） 2系统耦合协调度从勉强协调（0.534）提升至初级协调（0.610），增速缓慢，且随时间推移呈现出“整体分化、个别领先、落后优化”的非均衡特征。（3）空间上，2系统耦合协调发展水平总体呈现“东高西低、下游高上游低”的梯度分布格局，上中下游分别形成了“低值集聚板块”“高值环山西C型格局”“高值集聚板块”的局部格局。（4）有效灌溉面积是首要驱动因素，与产水模数、万元GDP用水量、农业科研人员数、复种指数共同影响2系统的协同发展水平。

关键词: 粮食安全, 水资源承载力, 黄河流域, 韧性, 随机森林

Abstract:

Investigating the intrinsic relationship and driving factors between grain production resilience and water resource carrying capacity in the Yellow River Basin of China has significant implications for the basin’s high-quality development. This study examines nine provinces and autonomous regions in the Yellow River Basin, constructing a grain production resilience and water resource carrying capacity evaluation index system and comprehensively applying entropy value analysis, coupling coordination degree models, and random forest algorithms to systematically analyze these systems’ integrated development, spatiotemporal coupling evolution characteristics, and driving factors from 2014 to 2023. The relevant results are fourfold. (1) In the period under study, grain production resilience in the Yellow River Basin showed a steady upward trend, while water resource carrying capacity exhibited an increase-fluctuation-adjustment pattern. (2) The two systems’ coupling coordination degree improved from barely coordinated (0.534) to preliminarily coordinated (0.610), although at a slow pace. Over time, fluctuating characteristics of overall divergence, individual sectors leading, and lagging sectors undergoing optimization transpired. (3) Spatially, the coupling coordination level exhibited a gradient distribution pattern of higher in the east than in the west and higher in the lower reaches than in the upper reaches. The upper, middle, and lower reaches formed distinct local patterns, respectively encompassing a low-value cluster zone, a high-value C-shaped pattern encircling Shanxi, and another high-value cluster zone. (4) Effective irrigated area is the primary driver, jointly influencing both systems’ coordination alongside the water production modulus, water consumption per 10000 yuan of GDP, number of agricultural researchers, and cropping index.

Key words: food security, water resource carrying capacity, Yellow River Basin, resilience, random forest

徐庆迪, 杨清. 黄河流域粮食生产韧性与水资源承载力时空耦合、演变轨迹及驱动因素[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(9): 1940-1950.

XU Qingdi, YANG Qing. Spatiotemporal coupling, evolutionary trajectories, and driving factors of grain production resilience and water resources carrying capacity in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(9): 1940-1950.

图/表 11

图1

图2

表1

粮食生产韧性和水资源承载力指标体系"

目标层	一级指标	二级指标	单位	指标计算方法	指标性质
水资源承载力	资源环境系统	人均水资源量（X₁）	m³·人^-1	区域水资源总量/区域人口总量	+
		产水模数（X₂）	m³·hm^-2	区域水资源总量/区域总面积	+
		水资源开发利用率（X₃）	%	区域供水总量/区域水资源总量	-
		建成区绿化覆盖率（X₄）	%	统计数据	+
		森林覆盖率（X₅）	%	统计数据	+
		生态用水量（X₆）	m³	统计数据	+
	经济社会系统	人均GDP（X₇）	元·人^-1	地区生产总值/区域人口总量	+
		万元GDP用水量（X₈）	m³·(10⁴元)^-1	年用水总量/地区生产总值	-
		经济密度（X₉）	元·hm^-2	地区生产总值/区域总面积	+
		人口密度（X₁₀）	人·hm^-2	区域人口总量/区域总面积	-
		城镇化率（X₁₁）	%	区域城镇人口总量/区域人口总量	+
		人均用水量（X₁₂）	m³·人^-1	统计数据	-
粮食生产韧性	风险抵御能力	耕地总面积（X₁₃）	hm²	统计数据	+
		有效灌溉面积（X₁₄）	hm²	统计数据	+
		农村第一产业从业人员数（X₁₅）	人	统计数据	+
		粮食类居民消费价格指数（X₁₆）	%	当期粮食价格/基期粮食价格	-
		单位面积粮食产量（X₁₇）	kg·hm^-2	粮食总产量/粮食播种面积	+
		人均粮食占有量（X₁₈）	kg·人^-1	粮食总产量/全省总人数	+
	复原调适能力	复种指数（X₁₉）	%	农作物播种面积/耕地面积	+
		农业气象观测业务站点数（X₂₀）	个	统计数据	+
		成灾率（X₂₁）	%	成灾面积/受灾面积×100	-
		农村用电量（X₂₂）	kWh	统计数据	+
		农药施用强度（X₂₃）	kg·hm^-2	农药施用量/农作物播种面积	-
		化肥施用强度（X₂₄）	kg·hm^-2	化肥施用量/农作物播种面积	-
		农膜施用强度（X₂₅）	kg·hm^-2	农膜使用量/农作物播种面积	-
	创新变革能力	机械化水平（X₂₆）	kWh·hm^-2	农业机械总动力/农作物播种面积	+
		单位播种面积农林牧渔服务业产值（X₂₇）	10⁴元·hm^-2	农林牧渔专业及辅助性活动产值/农作物播种面积	+
		财政支农力度（X₂₈）	%	农林水事务支出/政府公共财政支出	+
		农业科研人员数（X₂₉）	人	科研人员数×（农业总产值/生产总值）	+

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表3

图8

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类型	等级	耦合协调度
失调衰退型	极度失调	0.0~0.1
	高度失调	0.1~0.2
	中度失调	0.2~0.3
	轻度失调	0.3~0.4
	濒临失调	0.4~0.5
协调发展型	勉强协调	0.5~0.6
	初级协调	0.6~0.7
	中级协调	0.7~0.8
	良好协调	0.8~0.9
	优质协调	0.9~1.0

模型类型	测试集R²	RMSE	MAE	交叉验证R²均值	交叉验证R²标准差
随机森林	0.9324	0.0228	0.0194	0.8934	0.0441
SVR	0.5672	0.0578	0.0500	0.4488	0.0732
LightGBM	0.8286	0.0364	0.0279	0.8163	0.0511