伊犁河谷人居环境质量时空演变及影响机制研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.473

干旱区地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (7): 1430-1444.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.473 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2025473

伊犁河谷人居环境质量时空演变及影响机制研究

党玲芝¹^,²(), 王宏卫¹^,²(), 王灿¹^,², 吴晋华¹^,², 郭瑞杰³, 张馨元¹^,²

¹ 新疆大学地理与遥感科学学院，新疆乌鲁木齐 830017
² 新疆绿洲生态自治区重点实验室，新疆乌鲁木齐 830017
³ 新疆维吾尔自治区教育科学研究院，新疆乌鲁木齐 830046

收稿日期:2025-08-07 修回日期:2025-09-07 出版日期:2026-07-25 发布日期:2026-07-07
通讯作者: 王宏卫（1967-），男，博士，教授，主要从事国土空间生态保护等方面的研究. E-mail: wanghw_777@xju.edu.cn
作者简介:党玲芝（2000-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事干旱区人居环境等方面的研究. E-mail: 107552301157@stu.xju.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金（地区科学基金）项目(42461036)

Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing mechanism of human settlements quality in the Ili River Valley

DANG Lingzhi¹^,²(), WANG Hongwei¹^,²(), WANG Can¹^,², WU Jinhua¹^,², GUO Ruijie³, ZHANG Xinyuan¹^,²

¹ College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, Xinjiang, China
² Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Urumqi 830017, Xinjiang, China
³ Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Educational Science Research Institute, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China

Received:2025-08-07 Revised:2025-09-07 Published:2026-07-25 Online:2026-07-07

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

人居环境是人类生存和进步的基本空间，改善人居环境质量有助于促进人地关系协调，进而推动伊犁河谷高质量发展。基于生产功能、生活功能和生态功能视角，构建伊犁河谷人居环境质量评价指标体系，运用CRITIC赋权法、耦合协调度模型和综合影响因素分析模型，分析2013—2023年伊犁河谷人居环境质量的时空演变特征及影响机制。结果表明：（1）伊犁河谷各县（市）人居环境质量整体稳步提升，呈多核心、非对称的分布特征，区域差异逐渐缩小，空间均衡性不断增强。（2）人居环境子系统质量协同提升，其中生态维度质量指数始终居高；各子系统空间重心均呈西北向迁移趋势；各子系统耦合水平显著提升，由磨合期迈向高水平耦合阶段，但协调度仍处于失调状态，系统间协同机制亟待完善。（3）购物服务、工业经济、通信服务、生态植被与空气质量是人居环境质量的主要影响因子，生产功能、生活功能与生态功能分别在人居环境系统中起着保障、主导与本底作用。研究结果可为干旱半干旱地区绿洲人居环境优化提供科学依据。

关键词: “三生”功能, 人居环境质量, 随机森林模型, XGBoost模型, 伊犁河谷

Abstract:

Human settlements constitute the fundamental space for human survival and development. Enhancing the quality of human settlements will promote the coordination of human-land relations, thereby facilitating high-quality development in the Ili River Valley of Xinjiang, China. This study constructs an evaluation index system for human settlement quality in the Ili River Valley from the perspectives of production, living, and ecological functions. Using the criteria importance through intercriteria correlation weighting method, the coupling coordination degree model, and the comprehensive influencing factor analysis model, this study examines the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing mechanisms of human settlement quality in the Ili River Valley over an 11-year period from 2013 to 2023. The results indicate the following: (1) The overall quality of human settlements across all counties (cities) in the Ili River Valley has steadily improved, exhibiting multicore and asymmetric distribution patterns. Regional differences have gradually narrowed, and spatial balance has increased. (2) The subsystems of human settlement quality have improved in a coordinated manner, with the ecological dimension consistently maintaining a relatively high-quality index. The spatial centers of gravity of all subsystems have shown a northwestward migration trend. The coupling level among subsystems has significantly improved, transitioning from a running-in period to a high-level coupling stage. However, the degree of coordination remains imbalanced, indicating an urgent need to enhance coordination mechanism among systems. (3) Shopping services, industrial economy, telecommunications services, ecological vegetation, and air quality are the primary factors influencing human settlement quality. Production, living, and ecological functions play supporting, leading, and foundational roles, respectively, within the human settlement system. These findings provide a scientific basis for optimizing human settlements in oasis regions of arid and semiarid environments.

Key words: “production-living-ecological” functions, human settlements quality, random forest model, XGBoost model, Ili River Valley

党玲芝, 王宏卫, 王灿, 吴晋华, 郭瑞杰, 张馨元. 伊犁河谷人居环境质量时空演变及影响机制研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(7): 1430-1444.

DANG Lingzhi, WANG Hongwei, WANG Can, WU Jinhua, GUO Ruijie, ZHANG Xinyuan. Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing mechanism of human settlements quality in the Ili River Valley[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(7): 1430-1444.

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数据名称	年份	来源
CO₂年排放量	2013—2023	全球大气研究排放数据库（https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset_ghg80/）
逐日平均气温	2013—2023	美国国家环境信息中心（https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/global-summary-of-the-day/archive/）
逐日日照时长	2013—2023	2013—2019年源自中国国家气象信息中心（https://data.cma.cn/）；2020—2023年源自科学数据银行（https://www.scidb.cn/en/）
逐年年降水量、蒸发量	2013—2023	中国国家气象信息中心（https://data.cma.cn/）
SO₂、NO₂、PM_2.5年排放量、植被覆盖度	2013—2023	国家青藏高原科学数据中心（https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/）
逐年数字金融普惠指数	2013—2023	北京大学数字金融研究中心（https://idf.pku.edu.cn/）
逐年路网、河流水系面积	2013—2023	开放街道地图（https://www.openstreetmap.org/）
逐年公司企业数量	2013—2023	企查查（https://www.qcc.com/）
逐年兴趣点（POI）数量	2013—2023	高德开放平台（https://lbs.amap.com/）
地质灾害点数量	2019	中国科学院资源环境科学与数据平台（https://www.resdc.cn/）
归一化植被指数（NDVI）	2023	美国国家航空航天局（https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/）
统计数据	2013—2023	《中国城市建设统计年鉴》《中国县域统计年鉴》《中国县城建设统计年鉴》《新疆统计年鉴》《伊犁哈萨克自治州统计年鉴》以及各县（市）国民经济和社会发展统计公报、政府财政决算报告

目标层	准则层	指标层	指标权重	指标属性	参考依据
生产宜业	经济发展水平	人均居民储蓄存款余额/元·人^-1	0.0238	正向	[9]
		人均农业机械总动力/kW·人^-1	0.0464	正向	[9]
		公司企业密度/个·(10⁴人)^-1	0.0236	正向	[11]
		人均GDP/元·人^-1	0.0406	正向	[25]
	市场消费活力	人均社会消费品零售总额/元·人^-1	0.0238	正向	[11]
		数字普惠金融指数	0.0450	正向	[21]
		第三产业比重/%	0.0299	正向	[25]
生活宜居	民生保障能力	中小学每生教育财政支出/元·人^-1	0.0433	正向	[5]
		社会保障和就业支出比重/%	0.0482	正向	[17]
		每万人床位数/张·(10⁴人)^-1	0.0406	正向	[26]
	公共服务水平	路网密度/km·km^-2	0.0421	正向	[10]
		每万人科教文化机构数/个·(10⁴人)^-1	0.0364	正向	[13]
		每万人体育休闲机构数/个·(10⁴人)^-1	0.0491	正向	[13]
		每万人餐饮机构数/个·(10⁴人)^-1	0.0453	正向	[13]
生态和美	生态本底健康度	人均CO₂排放量/t·人^-1	0.0565	负向	[5]
		PM_2.5年平均浓度/μg·m^-3	0.0574	负向	[11]
		SO₂年平均浓度/μg·m^-3	0.0250	负向	[17]
	人居生态舒适度	植被覆盖面积比重/%	0.0591	正向	[8]
		人均公园绿地面积/m²·人^-1	0.0384	正向	[17]
		温度（15~25 ℃）适宜日占全年比/%	0.0578	正向	[25]
		日照（8~16 h）适宜日占全年比/%	0.0704	正向	[27]
		风景名胜数量/个	0.0357	正向	[28]
		湿润系数	0.0514	正向	[28]

准则层	表征层	指标层	指标属性	参考依据
生产功能	旅游经济	人均旅游收入/10⁴元·人^-1	正向	[8]
	农业设施化	设施农业种植比/%	正向	[9]
	畜牧业发展	人均牲畜出栏量/头·人^-1	正向	[9]
	农业生产	人均粮食产量/t·人^-1	正向	[17]
	工业经济	规模以上工业企业密度/个·(10⁴人)^-1	正向	[29]
生活功能	医疗服务	各类医疗卫生机构密度/个·(10⁴人)^-1	正向	[13]
	购物服务	购物服务机构密度/个·(10⁴人)^-1	正向	[13]
	社会保障	城乡居民基本养老保险参保率/%	正向	[17]
	通信服务	通信工具（固定电话）使用率/个·(10⁴人)^-1	正向	[30]
生态功能	空气质量	NO₂年平均排放量/μg·m^-3	负向	[9]
	生态植被	NDVI	正向	[13]
	气候水文	年降水量/mm	正向	[18]
	水资源	水域面积比/%	正向	[18]
	地质稳定性	地质灾害发生次数/次	负向	[31]

耦合度（C）	发展阶段	耦合协调度（D）	等级
0.0<C≤0.3	低水平耦合阶段	0.0<D≤0.1	极度失调
		0.1<D≤0.2	严重失调
		0.2<D≤0.3	中度失调
0.3<C≤0.5	拮抗阶段	0.3<D≤0.4	轻度失调
0.3<C≤0.5	拮抗阶段	0.4<D≤0.5	濒临失调
0.5<C≤0.8	磨合阶段	0.5<D≤0.6	勉强协调
		0.6<D≤0.7	初级协调
		0.7<D≤0.8	中级协调
0.8<C≤1.0	高水平耦合阶段	0.8<D≤0.9	良好协调
0.8<C≤1.0	高水平耦合阶段	0.9<D≤1.0	优质协调

模型	均方误差	均方误差根	平均绝对误差值	平均绝对百分误差	中位数绝对误差	可解释方差分	决定系数
XGBoost模型	0.000	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
随机森林模型	0.000	0.014	0.012	0.002	0.012	0.795	0.792

伊犁河谷人居环境质量时空演变及影响机制研究

Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing mechanism of human settlements quality in the Ili River Valley

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