1961—2022年新疆南部降雨和极端降雨特征

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.349

干旱区地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (1): 13-22.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.349 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2024349

1961—2022年新疆南部降雨和极端降雨特征

阿力木·艾尔肯¹(), 李如琦²(), 努尔扎提·阿卜杜柯尤木¹, 玛依热·艾海提¹, 希热娜依·铁里瓦尔地¹

1 喀什地区气象局，新疆喀什 844000
2 新疆气象台，新疆乌鲁木齐 830002

收稿日期:2024-06-04 修回日期:2024-11-11 出版日期:2026-01-25 发布日期:2026-01-18
通讯作者: 李如琦（1974-），男，硕士，正高级工程师，主要从事天气预报和灾害性天气机理研究. E-mail: liruqi@sohu.com
作者简介:阿力木·艾尔肯（1990-），男，本科，工程师，主要从事短中期天气预报及研究. E-mail: alimu9079@sina.com
基金资助:
新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发计划项目(2023B03019-2);新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2022D01D086);新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2022D01A292);新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2022D01F96);新疆维吾尔自治区科技厅“天山英才”培养计划项目(2023TSYCJC0066)

Characteristics of rainfall and extreme rainfall in southern Xinjiang from 1961 to 2022

Alim ARKEN¹(), LI Ruqi²(), Nurzat ABDUKEYUM¹, Mayra AHAT¹, Xerinay TILIWALDI¹

1 Kashgar Meteorological Bureau, Kashgar 844000, Xinjiang, China
2 Xinjiang Meteorological Observatory, Urumqi 830002, Xinjiang, China

Received:2024-06-04 Revised:2024-11-11 Published:2026-01-25 Online:2026-01-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1961—2022年新疆南部45个国家气象观测站的逐日降雨资料，分析了降雨的时空分布和变化特征，确定了极端降雨阈值，并研究了极端降雨特征。结果表明：（1）62 a来，新疆南部年平均降雨量最大且增速最快的区域位于海拔1500~2500 m的中山带，增加速率为5.4 mm·(10a)^-1，主要表现为降雨日数尤其是大量级降雨日数的增加，大暴雨及以上量级降雨量的增加贡献更大。（2）通过百分位法结果对比分析，确定第99个百分位取值为新疆南部极端降雨阈值标准，阈值为14.1~35.4 mm，西部山区和沿山区的阈值高于东部盆地沙漠区，且极端降雨阈值以0.7 mm·(10a)^-1的速率增加，增速最大的站主要位于喀什地区、和田地区西部和巴音郭楞蒙古自治州北部山区。（3）62 a来，新疆南部极端降雨事件次数为10~20次，天山山区可达20次以上，极端降雨事件以0.9次·(10a)^-1的速率增加。

关键词: 降雨量, 极端降雨, 时空特征, 变化趋势, 新疆南部

Abstract:

Using daily rainfall data from 45 national meteorological observation stations in southern Xinjiang of China from 1961 to 2022, we analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution and variability of rainfall, identified extreme rainfall thresholds, and examined extreme rainfall characteristics. The results show that (1) Over the past 62 years, the region with the highest and most rapidly increasing annual average rainfall in southern Xinjiang has been located in the middle mountain belt at an altitude of 1500-2500 m, with a growth rate of 5.4 mm·(10a)^-1. This increase is mainly reflected in the greater number of rainfall days, particularly large-scale rainfall days, while the increase in heavy-rainstorm-level rainfall and above is especially pronounced. (2) Based on a comparative analysis using the percentile method, the 99^th percentile was identified as the threshold for extreme rainfall in southern Xinjiang, corresponding to 14.1-35.4 mm. Thresholds in the western and mountain-adjacent regions are higher than those in the eastern basin-desert areas, and the extreme rainfall threshold has increased at a rate of 0.7 mm·(10a)^-1. Stations with the most rapid increases are primarily located in the mountainous areas of Kashgar, western Hotan, and northern Bayingol Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture. (3) Over the past 62 years, the number of extreme rainfall events in southern Xinjiang has generally ranged from 10-20 times, while in the Tianshan Mountains, events can persist for more than 20 times. Extreme rainfall events have increased in frequency at a rate of 0.9 events per decade.

Key words: precipitation, extreme rainfall, spatiotemporal characteristics, changing trends, southern Xinjiang

阿力木·艾尔肯, 李如琦, 努尔扎提·阿卜杜柯尤木, 玛依热·艾海提, 希热娜依·铁里瓦尔地. 1961—2022年新疆南部降雨和极端降雨特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(1): 13-22.

Alim ARKEN, LI Ruqi, Nurzat ABDUKEYUM, Mayra AHAT, Xerinay TILIWALDI. Characteristics of rainfall and extreme rainfall in southern Xinjiang from 1961 to 2022[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(1): 13-22.

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站名	百分位取值/mm			对应的降雨日数/d
站名	90%	95%	99%	90%	95%	99%
巴仑台	11.7	18.7	35.4	256	127	26
库米什	5.8	8.3	16.2	140	69	15
巴音布鲁克	10.1	13.9	25.1	211	103	21
和静	6.6	11.1	19.9	136	68	14
焉耆	7.6	12.2	23.7	143	73	15
和硕	8.4	13.0	25.1	149	75	16
乌什	7.4	11.5	22.2	228	113	23
阿克苏	6.2	10.4	21.3	172	87	18
温宿	6.4	10.0	20.7	167	83	17
拜城	6.2	10.1	18.5	253	126	26
新和	5.7	9.1	21.3	166	84	17
沙雅	5.8	8.7	19.0	142	72	15
轮台	5.5	9.2	20.8	150	74	16
库车	5.8	9.6	18.0	178	88	18
尉犁	6.6	10.0	21.9	112	57	13
库尔勒	6.2	9.5	18.3	143	72	15
吐尔尕特	9.2	11.0	23.0	37	19	4
阿图什	7.7	12.3	22.6	160	78	16
乌恰	8.9	13.7	24.1	255	128	26
伽师	7.4	12.1	24.8	134	66	14
阿克陶	7.4	11.9	22.6	137	70	15
喀什	7.0	11.2	22.6	139	69	14
阿合奇	9.2	14.6	28.8	312	155	32
巴楚	7.4	11.0	21.6	133	68	14
岳普湖	7.8	11.6	26.4	124	62	13
柯坪	7.7	11.4	22.4	209	104	22
阿瓦提	6.2	10.5	20.3	149	72	16
阿拉尔	5.8	9.8	19.2	135	68	14
塔中	6.4	8.2	16.5	30	18	4
铁干里克	6.3	10.6	24.0	80	41	9
若羌	6.1	9.8	25.7	65	33	7
英吉沙	7.4	11.7	21.4	137	69	14
塔什库尔干	5.4	7.4	14.1	134	66	14
麦盖提	7.4	11.1	22.4	112	57	12
莎车	7.1	12.1	25.3	112	56	12
叶城	7.8	11.7	25.5	117	60	12
泽普	7.8	12.2	23.2	110	54	12
皮山	8.6	12.1	25.0	99	49	10
策勒	8.0	12.0	27.4	73	37	8
墨玉	7.8	10.8	18.5	82	41	9
和田	7.9	11.0	16.3	83	40	9
洛浦	7.6	11.1	23.9	73	38	8
民丰	7.7	11.5	23.0	82	41	9
且末	5.8	9.0	15.8	63	32	7
于田	9.3	15.0	30.8	85	43	9

1961—2022年新疆南部降雨和极端降雨特征

Characteristics of rainfall and extreme rainfall in southern Xinjiang from 1961 to 2022

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