中国旅游新质生产力发展时空演化特征与驱动因素

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2025.291

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

加快发展旅游新质生产力是实现旅游业高质量发展的有效路径。基于2011—2023年中国30个省（自治区、直辖市）（除西藏和港澳台以外）的面板数据，从旅游高科技、旅游高效能、旅游高质量和旅游绿色化4个维度构建旅游新质生产力发展水平测度指标，运用综合评价法、Dagum基尼系数法及动态定性比较分析（QCA）法分析其时空特征与驱动机制。结果显示：（1）2011—2023年全国各省（自治区、直辖市）旅游新质生产力发展水平呈增长趋势，但区域间不均衡显著，东部地区领先，中部地区次之，西部和东北地区滞后。（2）“十二五”到“十四五”前期，东部、中部、西部及东北地区的旅游新质生产力发展差距不断缩小，但区域内差异仍显著。（3）经济发展水平、技术进步程度是旅游新质生产力发展水平的主要影响因素，形成经济-市场-政策驱动在内的多种驱动模式。研究结果为各区域提高旅游新质生产力发展水平、实现高质量发展提供实践指导。

关键词: 旅游新质生产力, 发展水平, 驱动因素, 动态QCA

Abstract:

Accelerating the development of tourism new quality productivity is an effective pathway to achieve high-quality growth in the tourism industry. Based on panel data from 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities)(excluding Xizang, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) in China from 2011 to 2023, this study constructs an evaluation index system for the development level of tourism new quality productivity from four dimensions: high technology, high efficiency, high-quality, and green sustainability, using a comprehensive evaluation method, the Dagum Gini coefficient, and dynamic qualitative comparative analysis to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms. The results reveal that (1) The development level of tourism new quality productivity exhibited an overall growing trend across provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China from 2011 to 2023, but with significant regional disparities, that is, the eastern region led, followed by the central region, whereas the western and northeastern regions lagged behind. (2) From the “12^th Five-Year Plan” to the early stage of the “14^th Five-Year Plan”, the development gap in tourism new quality productivity among the eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions narrowed continuously, although intra-regional differences remained pronounced. (3) Economic developmental level and technological advancement were identified as major influencing factors in the development of tourism new quality productivity, forming multiple driving patterns, including economic-market-and-policy drivers. The findings provide practical guidance for enhancing the development of tourism new quality productivity across regions and achieving high-quality development.

Key words: tourism new quality productivity, development level, driving factors, dynamic QCA

刘法建, 梁婉欣, 黄超群, 李松渊, 张博涵. 中国旅游新质生产力发展时空演化特征与驱动因素[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(3): 429-439.

LIU Fajian, LIANG Wanxin, HUANG Chaoqun, LI Songyuan, ZHANG Bohan. Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of tourism new quality productivity development in China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(3): 429-439.

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准则层	要素层	指标层	指标说明	属性
旅游高科技	创新投入	旅游业R&D经费	全社会R&D经费数额×旅游业产值占GDP比重	+
	创新投入	从事旅游R&D人员数	R&D人员数×旅游业产值占GDP比重	+
	创新产出	旅游产业劳动生产率	旅游总收入/旅游直接从业人员数	+
		旅游资本生产率	旅游总收入/旅游固定资产投资	+
		旅游专利授权数	专利授权数×旅游业产值占GDP比重	+
旅游高效能	产业结构	旅游产业结构合理化指数	泰尔指数	-
	产业结构	旅游产业结构高级化指数	第三产业产值/第二产业产值	+
	数字基础	光缆线路长度	光缆铺设总长度	+
		互联网宽带接入端口数	互联网普及情况	+
		移动电话普及率	电话普及情况	+
	生产效率	旅游全要素生产率	全要素生产率指数	+
旅游高质量	供给质量	旅行社供给	旅行社数量	+
		旅游景区供给	高级别景区数量	+
		四星级和五星级的饭店数量	四星级和五星级酒店之和	+
		交通供给	铁路网络密度+公路网络密度	+
	人才质量	人才培养机构	旅游院校数	+
	人才质量	人才培养规模	旅游院校在校学生数	+
	体验质量	游客满意度	网络关注度（百度指数）	+
旅游绿色化	环境污染	旅游产业废气排放量	废气排放量与旅游收入占GDP比重的乘积	-
		旅游产业废水排放量	废水排放量与旅游收入占GDP比重的乘积	-
		旅游产业固体废物排放量	废物排放量与旅游收入占GDP比重的乘积	-
	环境保护	人均公园绿地面积	公园绿地面积人均占有量	+
	环境保护	建成区绿地覆盖率	绿化覆盖面积占建成区的百分比	+
	环境治理	生活垃圾无害化处理率	生活垃圾无害化处理能力	+
		污水处理率	污水处理能力	+
		环保投资率	环保投资占地区GDP的比重	+

变量类型	衡量指标	指标释义
经济因素	人均生产总值（X₁）	地区生产总值/总人口
产业因素	第三产业占比（X₂）	第三产业增加值/地区生产总值
市场因素	樊纲指数（X₃）	通过政府与市场关系、非国有经济发展、产品市场的发育程度、要素市场的发育程度、市场中介组织的发育和法律制度环境计算得出
政府因素	社会固定资产投资额（X₄）	第三产业固定资产投资/地区生产总值
技术因素	信息化水平（X₅）	科研支出/地方财政支出
政策因素	对外开放水平（X₆）	外商直接投资额/地区生产总值