2000—2022年庆阳市土地利用与植被覆盖时空变化及影响因素

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.369

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

干旱区土地/植被覆盖演变规律已成为科学领域十分重要的课题，基于土地利用数据、归一化植被指数（NDVI）等，利用像元二分模型、土地利用变化方法、Sen+Mann-Kendall趋势分析、多元残差分析等方法探究2000—2022年庆阳市土地利用与植被覆盖的时空演变特征及其影响因素。结果表明：（1）庆阳市土地类型以草地和耕地为主，近20 a来林地、草地、建设用地面积明显增加，耕地、灌木面积显著减少；地类转化较为频繁的是耕地、草地和林地，主要特征是耕地向草地、林地转移，耕地、草地转为建设用地，林地转为耕地和草地的面积逐渐增大。（2）庆阳市植被覆盖度（FVC）西北部低、东南高，整体处于中等偏低水平并呈现明显改善的趋势；趋势变化表现为增长面积（79.66%）明显超过下降面积（8.08%），FVC变化反映不同历史时期城市化进程与政策的综合影响。（3）庆阳市FVC改善主要受到气候变化和人类活动的共同影响，人类活动对FVC的影响更为剧烈；FVC改善与生态战略工程实施密切相关。研究结果可为庆阳市生态建设与可持续发展提供理论参考。

关键词: 植被覆盖度, 土地利用变化, 像元二分模型, 趋势分析, 影响因素, 庆阳市

Abstract:

The evolution law of land/vegetation cover in arid areas has become a very important topic in the field of science. Based on land use data and the normalized difference vegetation index, this paper explores the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of land use and vegetation cover in Qingyang City, Gansu, China, from 2000 to 2022 using a pixel dichotomy model, land use change methods, Sen+Mann-Kendall trend analysis, and multivariate residual analysis. The results showed the following: (1) Land types in Qingyang City were dominated by grassland and cultivated land. Over the past 20 years, the areas of forest land, grassland, and construction land increased considerably, whereas those of cultivated land and shrubland decreased considerably. The primary transitions involved the conversion of cultivated land to grassland and forest land, the conversion of cultivated land and grassland to construction land, and a gradual increase in the transfer of forest land area to cultivated land and grassland. (2) Fractional vegetation coverage (FVC) in Qingyang City was low in the northwest and high in the southeast; the overall level was moderately low but showed a pronounced improvement trend. Trend analysis indicated that the area exhibiting an increasing trend (79.66%) far exceeded the area with a decreasing trend (8.08%), and FVC changes reflected the combined effects of urbanization and policies across different historical periods. (3) FVC improvement in Qingyang City was primarily driven by climate change and human activities, with human activities exerting a stronger influence. FVC improvement is closely linked to the implementation of ecological restoration projects. The results of this study can provide a theoretical reference for ecological construction and sustainable development in Qingyang City.

Key words: vegetation coverage, land-use change, pixel dichotomous model, trend analysis, influencing factors, Qingyang City

张登科, 张彦洪, 张鹏举, 张万光. 2000—2022年庆阳市土地利用与植被覆盖时空变化及影响因素[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(7): 1395-1404.

ZHANG Dengke, ZHANG Yanhong, ZHANG Pengju, ZHANG Wanguang. Spatiotemporal changes and influencing factors of land use and vegetation cover in Qingyang City from 2000 to 2022[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(7): 1395-1404.

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Sen趋势值（β）	Z值	变化趋势
β>0.0005	Z>1.96	显著增长
β>0.0005	-1.65<Z≤1.65	轻度增长
-0.0005<β≤0.0005	-1.65<Z≤1.65	稳定不变
β<-0.0005	-1.65<Z≤1.65	轻度下降
β<-0.0005	Z≤-1.96	严重下降

土地利用类型	面积/km²			2000—2022年面积变化/km²	动态度/%
土地利用类型	2000年	2010年	2022年	2000—2022年面积变化/km²	2000—2010年	2010—2022年
耕地	7207.03	6375.58	5992.93	-1214.10	-1.15	-0.50
林地	2962.11	3160.16	3796.28	834.17	0.67	1.68
灌木	58.85	17.85	3.33	-55.53	-6.97	-6.78
草地	16834.87	17493.57	17221.91	387.04	0.39	-0.13
水域	2.22	2.90	3.79	1.58	3.08	2.56
裸地	0.78	1.08	7.29	6.51	3.89	47.76
建设用地	45.24	59.97	88.28	43.04	3.26	3.93