1958—2023年内蒙古植被干旱时空特征与驱动因素分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.499

干旱区地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (7): 1323-1335.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.499 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2025499

1958—2023年内蒙古植被干旱时空特征与驱动因素分析

陈先林¹(), 闫志远¹^,²(), 刘全明¹^,²^,³, 张圣微¹^,²^,³^,⁴

¹ 内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院，内蒙古呼和浩特 010018
² 内蒙古农业大学旱区水工程生态环境全国重点实验室，内蒙古呼和浩特 010018
³ 黄河流域内蒙段水资源与水环境综合治理自治区协同创新中心，内蒙古呼和浩特 010018
⁴ 内蒙古自治区水资源保护与利用重点实验室，内蒙古呼和浩特 010018

收稿日期:2025-08-19 修回日期:2025-10-06 出版日期:2026-07-25 发布日期:2026-07-07
通讯作者: 闫志远（1983-），男，博士，讲师，主要从事GIS空间分析与遥感云计算等方面的研究. E-mail: yanzy@imau.edu.cn
作者简介:陈先林（2000-），男，硕士研究生，主要从事遥感旱情监测等方面的研究. E-mail: chenxl@emails.imau.edu.cn
基金资助:
内蒙古农业大学青年教师科研能力提升专项(BR230159);内蒙古自治区高等学校科学研究项目(NJZY21466);内蒙古自治区科技计划项目(2021GG0072);内蒙古自治区教育厅一流学科科研专项(YLXKZX-NND-010);内蒙古自治区高等学校创新团队发展计划(NMGIRT2313)

Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of vegetation drought in Inner Mongolia from 1958 to 2023

CHEN Xianlin¹(), YAN Zhiyuan¹^,²(), LIU Quanming¹^,²^,³, ZHANG Shengwei¹^,²^,³^,⁴

¹ College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, Inner Mongolia, China
² State Key Laboratory of Water Engineering Ecology and Environment in Arid Area, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, Inner Mongolia, China
³ Autonomous Region Collaborative Innovation Center for Integrated Management of Water Resources and Water Environment in the Inner Mongolia Reaches of the Yellow River, Hohhot 010018, Inner Mongolia, China
⁴ Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Key Laboratory of Water Resources Protection and Utilization, Hohhot 010018, Inner Mongolia, China

Received:2025-08-19 Revised:2025-10-06 Published:2026-07-25 Online:2026-07-07

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

干旱作为内蒙古常见的极端气候事件之一，不仅导致农作物减产，还会引发草场退化，严重威胁区域生态环境稳定和农业生产安全。为明晰干旱的时空演变特征及其驱动机制，基于作物缺水指数（CWSI），分析1958—2023年内蒙古植被干旱的时空分布特征、变化趋势及其驱动因素，并进一步探讨CWSI对主要驱动因子的时滞效应。结果表明：（1）内蒙古多年平均CWSI的分布特征存在明显的空间异质性，呈现西南高、东北低的特点；1958—2023年CWSI呈单调增加趋势的区域占比达70.5%；突变集中发生在2000年左右，其中1998年最为显著。（2）降水和气温是内蒙古植被干旱的主要驱动因素；多因子交互下，降水和气温交互作用q值几乎均在0.8以上。（3）内蒙古CWSI对降水的响应存在平均1.61个月的滞后，对气温响应的滞后时间更短，平均为1.33个月。研究结果可为内蒙古干旱监测提供理论基础与技术支撑。

关键词: 作物缺水指数（CWSI）, 地理探测器, 时空变化, 驱动因素, 时滞效应, 内蒙古

Abstract:

Drought is among the most prevalent extreme climate events in Inner Mongolia, China, resulting in diminished crop yields and the degradation of grasslands. This phenomenon poses a significant threat to the stability of the regional ecological environment and the safety of agricultural production. To better understand the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of drought, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics, changing trends, and driving factors of vegetation drought in Inner Mongolia from 1958 to 2023 based on the crop water stress index (CWSI). Additionally, the time-lag effect of CWSI on the main driving factors was further explored. The results indicate that: (1) The distribution characteristics of the multi-year average CWSI in Inner Mongolia exhibit evident spatial heterogeneity, with higher values observed in the southwest and lower values in the northeast. Furthermore, the proportion of areas demonstrating a monotonically increasing CWSI trend from 1958 to 2023 reached 70.5%, and the abrupt breakpoints primarily occurred around 2000, with 1998 being the most significant. (2) Precipitation and temperature are the primary driving factors of vegetation drought in Inner Mongolia. The q values of the interaction between precipitation and temperature are nearly all above 0.8, indicating a highly significant relationship between the two factor. (3) The precipitation response of the CWSI in the entire region exhibits an average lag of 1.61 months, whereas the response to temperature is weaker but with a shorter lag time, averaging 1.33 months. This study quantitatively analyzed the time-lag effect of vegetation drought on climatic factors, thereby providing a theoretical foundation and technical support for drought monitoring in Inner Mongolia.

Key words: crop water shortage index (CWSI), geographic detector, spatiotemporal changes, driving factors, time-delay effect, Inner Mongolia

陈先林, 闫志远, 刘全明, 张圣微. 1958—2023年内蒙古植被干旱时空特征与驱动因素分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(7): 1323-1335.

CHEN Xianlin, YAN Zhiyuan, LIU Quanming, ZHANG Shengwei. Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of vegetation drought in Inner Mongolia from 1958 to 2023[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(7): 1323-1335.

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等级	CWSI	类型
1	0.0~0.6	无旱
2	0.6~0.7	轻旱
3	0.7~0.8	中旱
4	0.8~0.9	重旱
5	0.9~1.0	特旱

趋势类型	含义
单调型增加	持续上升，突变次数≤1
单调型减少	持续下降，突变次数≤1
中断型增加	整体上升，期间出现1次显著下降突变
中断型减少	整体下降，期间出现1次显著上升突变
由增到减	趋势由上升转为下降，出现1次显著突变
由减到增	趋势由下降转为上升，出现1次显著突变
复杂多段突变	检测到2次及以上突变，表现为增减交替或阶段性调整

判断依据	类型
$q\left(X_{1} \cap X_{2}\right)＜\min \left[q\left(X_{1}\right), q\left(X_{2}\right)\right]$	非线性减弱
$\min \left[q\left(X_{1}\right), q\left(X_{2}\right)\right]＜q\left(X_{1} \cap X_{2}\right)＜\max \left[q\left(X_{1}\right), q\left(X_{2}\right)\right]$	单因子非线性减弱
$q\left(X_{1} \cap X_{2}\right)＜\max \left[q\left(X_{1}\right), q\left(X_{2}\right)\right]$	双因子增强
$q\left(X_{1} \cap X_{2}\right)=q\left(X_{1}\right)+q\left(X_{2}\right)$	独立
$q\left(X_{1} \cap X_{2}\right)＞q\left(X_{1}\right)+q\left(X_{2}\right)$	非线性增强

因子	分类方法	分类数量	因子	分类方法	分类数量
GDP	分位数	8	坡度（SL）	标准差	8
人口密度（POP）	分位数	8	降水（PRE）	分位数	8
放牧强度（LHGI）	分位数	8	气温（TEM）	分位数	8
土地利用类型（LUCC）	自然断点	8	粉土比例（Silt）	分位数	8
归一化植被指数（NDVI）	标准差	7	砂土比例（Sand）	标准差	6
海拔（DEM）	几何间断	6	黏土比例（Clay）	标准差	8
坡向（AS）	几何间断	5

1958—2023年内蒙古植被干旱时空特征与驱动因素分析

Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of vegetation drought in Inner Mongolia from 1958 to 2023

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