MSWEP降水产品在黄河流域气象干旱监测中的适用性评价

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.299

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用多个统计学指标和多个时间尺度的标准化降水指数（Standardized precipitation index, SPI）评估1981—2020年MSWEP（Multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation）降水产品在黄河流域干旱监测中的准确性，并利用游程理论识别干旱事件并定量化分析其时空特征。结果表明：（1）MSWEP降水产品的月降水与以中国降水分析产品（Chinese precipitation analysis product，CPAP）为代表的地面观测降水的相关性较高，决定系数达到0.9347。（2） MSWEP降水产品可以较好地捕捉多年降水的空间格局和时间演变。（3）基于MSWEP降水产品计算的SPI一般可以重现基于CPAP计算的SPI的格局，但是相关性因地区而异。在捕捉干湿状况方面，MSWEP降水产品在黄河流域中下游表现较好，但在黄河源区的效果较差，相关系数低于0.5。值得注意的是，MSWEP降水产品捕捉干湿变化的能力随SPI时间尺度的增加而降低。（4） MSWEP降水产品在黄河流域中下游的表现明显优于上游。（5） MSWEP降水产品能够有效捕捉持续时间、烈度和严重度等干旱事件特征。总体来讲，MSWEP降水产品适用于黄河流域中下游的干旱监测，但在黄河源区地形复杂地区的干旱监测应用时，需要进一步修正其降水高估误差。

关键词: 干旱监测, MSWEP降水产品, 标准化降水指数, 应用评价, 黄河流域

Abstract:

This study aims to evaluate the accuracy of the multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation (MS WEP) product for drought monitoring in the Yellow River Basin of China from 1981 to 2020 using several statistical indicators and the standardized precipitation index (SPI) with multiple time scales. The run theory was used to identify drought events and quantitatively analyze their spatial and temporal characteristics. The following results are presented. (1) The monthly precipitation from the MSWEP product is well correlated with that from the ground observation represented by the Chinese precipitation analysis product (CPAP), and the determination coefficient reaches 0.9347. (2) The MSWEP product could successfully capture the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of multiyear precipitation. (3) The SPI calculated on the basis of the MSWEP product could generally reproduce the SPI pattern calculated on the basis of CPAP. However, the correlations differ from region to region. MSWEP product has a satisfactory performance in the middle and lower reaches of the river basin despite its poor performance in capturing the wetness or dryness condition in the source area of the Yellow River Basin with correlation coefficients lower than 0.5. Notably, the capability of the MSWEP product for capturing drought decreases with the increase in the SPI time scales. (4) The performance of the MSWEP product in the middle and lower reaches of the watershed is significantly better than that in the upper reaches. (5) MSWEP product can effectively capture the characteristics of drought events, such as duration, intensity, and severity. Thus, the MSWEP product is generally suitable for drought monitoring in the middle and low reaches of the Yellow River Basin. However, further correcting the overestimation error of precipitation in the application of MSWEP in areas with complex terrain in the source region of the Yellow River Basin is necessary.

Key words: drought monitoring, multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation (MSWEP) product, standardized precipitation index, applicability evaluation, Yellow River Basin

许昕彤,朱丽,吕潇雨,郭浩. MSWEP降水产品在黄河流域气象干旱监测中的适用性评价[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(3): 371-384.

XU Xintong,ZHU Li,LYU Xiaoyu,GUO Hao. Applicability evaluation of MSWEP product for meteorological drought monitoring in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(3): 371-384.

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SPI值	干旱等级
SPI≤-2.0	特旱
-2.0<SPI≤-1.5	重旱
-1.5<SPI≤-1.0	中旱
-1.0<SPI≤-0.5	轻旱
SPI>-0.5	无旱

干旱事件	降水产品	起止时间	峰值时间	历时/个月	烈度	峰值	严重度
DE1	CPAP	1986年9—11月	1986年11月	3	1.17	1.24	3.51
DE1	MSWEP	1986年9—11月	1986年11月	3	1.31	1.36	3.93
DE2	CPAP	1997年6—12月	1997年10月	7	0.92	1.22	6.41
DE2	MSWEP	1997年6—12月	1997年10月	7	0.93	1.23	6.53
DE3	CPAP	1998年10月—1999年3月	1999年2月	6	1.35	2.27	8.09
DE3	MSWEP	1998年10月—1999年3月	1999年2月	6	1.13	1.90	6.79