基于PLUS模型的黄河流域生态系统服务评价及多情景预测——以陕西段为例

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.651

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

生态系统服务长期供给与最大化是社会可持续发展的重要前提，应准确掌握生态系统服务变化趋势。基于多源数据，借助InVEST模型和生态系统服务评估体系构建等方法理论，综合分析了2000—2020年黄河流域陕西段各类型生态系统服务的时空演变特征，并利用PLUS模型对2035年其土地利用及生态系统服务变化情况进行模拟预测。结果表明：（1）2000—2020年黄河流域陕西段综合生态系统服务值整体表现出“南高北低”的分布特征，各生态系统服务优势区域同样集中在研究区南部。（2）2000—2020年研究区内综合生态系统服务值表现为先降后升，且提升明显，高值区域由南到北不断扩大；除土壤保持服务外，其余类型生态系统服务值在研究时段内均有一定提升，且各生态系统服务间具有明显的空间分异性。（3）相较于自然发展情景，生态保护情景下林地面积提升显著，研究区中北部服务等级提升明显；建设优先情景下建设用地面积大幅增长，沿黄水系服务等级降低区域聚集明显；可持续发展情景下林地和建设用地均有扩张，研究区北部服务等级提升明显。研究结果能够为黄河流域生态综合整治及高质量发展提供科学参考。

关键词: 生态系统服务评价, PLUS模型, 多情景模拟, 黄河流域, 陕西段

Abstract:

The long-term supply and optimization of ecosystem services are critical for sustainable social development, necessitating a precise understanding of ecosystem service trends. This study integrates multi-source data, employing the InVEST model and an ecosystem service evaluation framework to analyze these trends. A comprehensive assessment of the spatiotemporal evolution of ecosystem services in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin, China, was conducted from 2000 to 2020. The PLUS model was subsequently used to simulate and forecast land use and ecosystem service changes for 2035. The findings reveal that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the spatial distribution of comprehensive ecosystem service values in the Shaanxi section exhibited a “high in the south and low in the north” pattern, with high-value areas predominantly located in the southern region. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the comprehensive ecosystem service value initially declined and then increased significantly, with high-value areas expanding from south to north. Apart from soil conservation services, the values of other ecosystem services improved to varying extents, displaying significant spatial differentiation. (3) Under the ecological protection scenario, forest area notably increased, and service levels in the central and northern regions improved markedly. Conversely, in the construction priority scenario, the expansion of construction land led to decreased service levels in the Yellow River system and pronounced clustering of affected areas. In the sustainable development scenario, both forest and construction land expanded, significantly enhancing service levels in the northern part of the study area. Based on these results, this study examines the impacts of regional social development on ecosystem services and offers zoning and control recommendations, providing valuable insights for the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.

Key words: evaluation of ecosystem services, PLUS model, multi-scenario simulation, Yellow River Basin, Shaanxi section

张艳, 李骏南, 潘博华. 基于PLUS模型的黄河流域生态系统服务评价及多情景预测——以陕西段为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(11): 1935-1946.

ZHANG Yan, LI Junnan, PAN Bohua. Evaluation and multi-scenario prediction of ecosystem services in the Yellow River Basin based on PLUS model: A case of Shaanxi section[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(11): 1935-1946.

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情景类型	转换规则
自然发展	保持发展趋势，不考虑未来规划，不限制特殊规则，除建设用地和水体均可彼此转换
生态保护	追求高生态效益，限制生态效益高等级用地向低等级转换
建设优先	注重经济发展，将经济效益高用地设为高等级，按照由低到高的转换原则
可持续发展	兼顾经济发展与生态保护，有机结合2种情景需求，耦合人地关系

年份	碳储存	土壤保持	水源供给	粮食生产	居住资源支持	综合生态系统服务
2000	0.0782	0.0213	0.3642	0.3535	0.0046	0.2205
2010	0.1127	0.0179	0.3420	0.4496	0.0085	0.1887
2020	0.1260	0.0103	0.4765	0.3644	0.0134	0.2461

土地利用类型	2020年		2035年
	基准情景		自然发展情景		生态保护情景		建设优先情景		可持续发展情景
	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%
耕地	49501	37.29	49501	37.29	48850	36.80	48713	36.69	48288	36.37
林地	23137	17.43	23823	17.94	24135	18.18	23137	17.43	24352	18.34
草地	49246	37.09	48602	36.61	49111	36.99	49246	37.10	48501	36.53
水域	1434	1.08	1401	1.05	1427	1.07	1434	1.08	1377	1.04
建设用地	5098	3.84	5106	3.85	4948	3.73	5859	4.41	5854	4.41
未利用地	4344	3.27	4327	3.26	4289	3.23	4371	3.29	4388	3.31

综合生态系统服务等级	2020年		2035年
	基准情景		自然发展情景		生态保护情景		建设优先情景		可持续发展情景
	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%
高	20784	15.66	27922	21.03	40555	30.55	19790	14.91	29985	22.59
较高	27362	20.61	29566	22.27	25138	18.93	25639	19.31	27979	21.07
中等	58710	44.22	40072	30.18	34420	25.93	52518	39.56	39082	29.44
较低	23957	18.05	27679	20.85	25388	19.12	28527	21.49	28691	21.61
低	1947	1.47	7521	5.67	7259	5.47	6286	4.73	7023	5.29