边疆安全背景下新疆边境人口-社会经济-资源环境耦合协调关系研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2026.151

Abstract

Abstract:

Frontier security is fundamental to national security, however, frontier regions often face complex demographic, economic, and ecological challenges, particularly in border areas. Analyzing coordination mechanisms among multiple systems provides a valuable perspective for advancing high-quality development in these regions. Drawing on a frontier security perspective and using county-level panel data from 2000 to 2023, this study systematically evaluates the coordination among population, socio-economic, and resource-environment systems in Xinjiang’s border counties. The results reveal the following: (1) Pronounced imbalances in the evolution of the three systems, population fluctuations are relatively minimal, whereas both socio-economic and resource-environment conditions continue to improve. (2) Most counties remain in the antagonistic and adjustment phases of coupling and coordination, with only a few (including Huocheng County), achieving preliminary synergy. (3) Furthermore, the level of coupling and coordination across counties demonstrates a significant negative spatial correlation. (4) Notably, resourc-environment systems contribute positively to coupling and coordination, while socio-economic and population systems exert a countervailing influence. Over the course of study, the comprehensive coupling coordination degree, however, showed a fluctuating upward trend. (5) Population strongly affects resource-environment, while in later stages, socio-economic systems have a greater impact on population than population inertia itself. Conversely, the interaction between population and the other two systems remains relatively weak. To address these challenges, the study recommends improving regional education, healthcare, and housing to support the rational population concentration, developing unique local industries, and designing cooperative mechanisms that integrate population, industry, and ecological development.

Key words: border security, integrated systems, coordination and collaboration, Xinjiang

TONG Yanjun, YUAN Lu, LEI Jun. Coupled and coordinated relationships between population, socio-economic, and resource-environment in Xinjiang’s border areas under the background of border security[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(8): 1626-1639.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

Fig. 8

Fig. 9

Tab. 2

References 26

[1]	World Commission on Environment and Development. Our common future[R]. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1987.
[2]	牛文元, 康晓光, 王毅. 中国式持续发展战略的初步构想[J]. 管理世界, 1994(1): 195-203.
	[Niu Wenyuan, Kang Xiaoguang, Wang Yi. A preliminary conception of sustainable development strategy with Chinese characteristics[J]. Management World, 1994(1): 195-203.]
[3]	吴传钧. 论地理学的研究核心——人地关系地域系统[J]. 经济地理, 1991, 11(3): 1-6.
	[Wu Chuanjun. On the core of geographical research: The regional system of man-land relationship[J]. Economic Geography, 1991, 11(3): 1-6.] doi: 10.2307/140646
[4]	廖重斌. 环境与经济协调发展的定量评判及其分类体系——以珠江三角洲城市群为例[J]. 热带地理, 1999, 19(2): 76-82.
	[Liao Chongbin. Quantitative judgement and classification system for coordinated development of environment and economy: A case study of the city group in the Pearl River Delta[J]. Tropical Geography, 1999, 19(2): 76-82.]
[5]	Jiang L L, Wu Y X, He X L, et al. Dynamic simulation and coupling coordination evaluation of water footprint sustainability system in Heilongjiang Province, China: A combined system dynamics and coupled coordination degree model[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2022, 380(1): 135044, doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.135044.
[6]	Han Y P, Jiang Z, Zhao M D, et al. Analysis of coupling coordination development and obstacle factors in the water-energy-carbon-ecological environment nexus across China’s Yellow River Basin[J]. Scientific Reports, 2025, 15: 24106, doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-09234-1.
[7]	Zhang Z W, Qi J Y, Wang Q, et al. Analysis and forecast of the coupled development level of socioeconomic ecological environment and tourism in China’s Yellow River Basin[J]. Scientific Reports, 2025, 15: 5446, doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-88875-8.
[8]	Zhao Y H, Hou P, Jiang J B, et al. Temporal and spatial analysis of coupling coordination in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration: Ecology, environment and economy[J]. Land, 2024, 13(4): 512, doi: 10.3390/land13040512.
[9]	Zhang Y, Zhu T X, Guo H Y, et al. Analysis of the coupling coordination degree of the society-economy-resource-environment system in urban areas: Case study of the Jingjinji urban agglomeration, China[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2023, 146: doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109851.
[10]	He X D, Wu L H, Shen G Q, et al. A spatiotemporal analysis of ecological-economic coupling coordination in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration[J]. Land, 2023, 12(7): 1378, doi: 10.3390/land12071378.
[11]	孙通, 游珍, 封志明, 等. 云南省边境地区人口分布适宜度研究[J]. 云南师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2016, 48(3): 101-110.
	[Sun Tong, You Zhen, Feng Zhiming, et al. On the suitability of the population distribution in the borderlands of Yunnan Province[J]. Journal of Yunnan Normal University (Humanities and Social Sciences Edition), 2016, 48(3): 101-110.]
[12]	林树高, 诸培新, 陆汝成, 等. 贸易-经济-人口系统对边境地区国土空间格局演变区域差异的影响——以中越边境带为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2023, 38(6): 1550-1569. doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20230611
	[Lin Shugao, Zhu Peixin, Lu Rucheng, et al. The influence of trade-economy-population system on regional differences of territorial space pattern evolution in border areas: Take the China-Vietnam border zone as a case[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2023, 38(6): 1550-1569.] doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20230611
[13]	热孜娅·阿曼, 方创琳. 新疆水资源承载力的系统动力学仿真与情景模拟[J]. 环境科学与技术, 2020, 43(6): 205-215.
	[Aman Reziya, Fang Chuanglin. System dynamics simulation and scenario analysis of water resources carrying capacity in Xinjiang[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2020, 43(6): 205-215.]
[14]	雷蕾. 新疆边境人口分析[D]. 北京: 中央民族大学, 2019.
	[Lei Lei. Analysis of the population along the Xinjiang border[D]. Beijing: Minzu University of China, 2019.]
[15]	周怡静, 张长淦, 尹上岗, 等. 长三角地区生态韧性抵抗-适应-恢复的耦合协调及影响机制[J]. 经济地理, 2025, 45(3): 160-170. doi: 10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2025.03.016
	[Zhou Yijing, Zhang Changgan, Yin Shanggang, et al. Coupling coordination and influence mechanisms of ecological resilience in Yangtze River Delta region: A resistance-adaptation-recovery framework[J]. Economic Geography, 2025, 45(3): 160-170.] doi: 10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2025.03.016
[16]	郭垠宏, 宋涛, 孙曼. 安全、发展与开放关联下的中国边疆地域功能演化及时段划分[J]. 地理研究, 2023, 42(10): 2574-2591. doi: 10.11821/dlyj020230143
	[Guo Yinhong, Song Tao, Sun Man. The territorial function evolution and time segmentation of Chinese border in the context of security, development and opening up nexus[J]. Geographical Research, 2023, 42(10): 2574-2591.]
[17]	李恒吉, 曲建升, 庞家幸, 等. 甘肃省人口-经济-社会-资源-环境系统耦合协调及可持续发展时空综合测度研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020, 43(6): 1622-1634.
	[Li Hengji, Qu Jiansheng, Pang Jiaxing, et al. Spatial-temporal synthetic measurement of coupling coordination and sustainable development of population-economy-society-resource-environment system in Gansu Province[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(6): 1622-1634.]
[18]	马国斌, 陆汝成, 王鹏程, 等. 中国陆地边疆地区国土空间安全动态评价及预警优化研究[J]. 中国土地科学, 2025, 39(1): 105-117.
	[Ma Guobin, Lu Rucheng, Wang Pengcheng, et al. Optimization of dynamic early warning for territorial space security in land border areas of China[J]. China Land Science, 2025, 39(1): 105-117.]
[19]	毕国华, 杨庆媛, 刘苏. 中国省域生态文明建设与城市化的耦合协调发展[J]. 经济地理, 2017, 37(1): 50-58.
	[Bi Guohua, Yang Qingyuan, Liu Su. Coupling coordination development between ecological civilization construction and urbanization in China[J]. Economic Geography, 2017, 37(1): 50-58.]
[20]	王玲杰. 人口安全动态评价指标体系及评价模型[J]. 统计与决策, 2009(20): 12-14.
	[Wang Lingjie. Dynamic evaluation index system and evaluation model of population security[J]. Statistics and Decision, 2009(20): 12-14.]
[21]	姜磊, 柏玲, 吴玉鸣. 中国省域经济、资源与环境协调分析——兼论三系统耦合公式及其扩展形式[J]. 自然资源学报, 2017, 32(5): 788-799. doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160512
	[Jiang Lei, Bai Ling, Wu Yuming. Coupling and coordinating degrees of provincial economy, resources and environment in China[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(5): 788-799.] doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160512
[22]	王少剑, 崔子恬, 林靖杰, 等. 珠三角地区城镇化与生态韧性的耦合协调研究[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(4): 973-991. doi: 10.11821/dlxb202104013
	[Wang Shaojian, Cui Zitian, Lin Jingjie, et al. Coupling relationship between urbanization and ecological resilience in the Pearl River Delta[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(4): 973-991.] doi: 10.11821/dlxb202104013
[23]	罗万云, 王福博, 戎铭倩. 国家重点生态功能区生态-经济-社会系统耦合协调的动态演化——以新疆阿勒泰地区为例[J]. 生态学报, 2022, 42(12): 4729-4741.
	[Luo Wanyun, Wang Fubo, Rong Mingqian. Dynamic evolution of ecological-economic-social system coupling coordination in national key ecological function areas: Take the Altay region of Xinjiang as an example[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2022, 42(12): 4729-4741.]
[24]	虎海峰, 孙勇, 刘明凯, 等. 民族地区经济-社会-治理系统耦合协调效应评价与系统动力学仿真——以新疆为例[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(5): 93-102. doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0311
	[Hu Haifeng, Sun Yong, Liu Mingkai, et al. Evaluation of coupling coordination effect of economic-society-governance system in minority regions: Take Xinjiang as an example[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024, 32(5): 93-102.] doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0311
[25]	吉泽男, 付文婷, 王鹏程, 等. 干旱区数字经济与农业绿色发展耦合协调研究——以新疆为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(11): 1981-1990. doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.637
	[Ji Zenan, Fu Wenting, Wang Pengcheng, et al. Coupling and coordination of digital economy and green development of agriculture in arid zones: A case of Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(11): 1981-1990.] doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.637
[26]	杨嘉晖, 刘晓煌, 时鹏, 等. “三生”功能视角下额尔齐斯河流域空间优化调控研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(3): 581-593. doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2025.297
	[Yang Jiahui, Liu Xiaohuang, Shi Peng, et al. Spatial optimization and regulation in the Irtysh River Basin from the perspective of production-living-ecological function[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(3): 581-593.] doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2025.297

系统层	准则层	指标层	属性	单位	权重
人口	规模结构	年末总人口	+	10⁴人	0.0902
		人口密度	+	人·km^-2	0.0568
		65岁及以上人口占比	-	%	0.0896
		人口自然增长率	+	%	0.0721
	人口素质	普通中学在校学生数	+	人	0.0396
		每万人拥有医院床位数	+	个	0.0295
		社会服务机构床位数	+	个	0.0312
社会经济	基础支撑	粮食总产量	+	t	0.0259
	基础支撑	一般公共预算收入	+	10⁴元	0.0147
	经济发展	固定资产投资	+	10⁴元	0.0181
		第二产业增加值	+	10⁴元	0.0217
		第三产业增加值	+	10⁴元	0.0367
		社会消费品零售总额	+	10⁴元	0.0228
		人均地区生产总值	+	元	0.0330
		夜间灯光指数	+	-	0.0390
	社会发展	道路密度	+	km·km^-2	0.0288
	社会发展	边境线边防派出所数量	+	-	0.0121
资源环境	资源本底	植被覆盖度	+	%	0.0623
		年末耕地面积	+	km²	0.0450
		年均地下水水位	-	m	0.1049
	环境污染	地表SO₂质量浓度	-	μg·m^-2	0.0637
	环境污染	PM_2.5排放量	-	μg·m^-2	0.0627

响应变量	冲击变量
响应变量	预测期	POP	ECO	RES
POP	1	1.000	0.000	0.000
POP	4	0.956	0.004	0.008
POP	7	0.910	0.034	0.056
POP	10	0.897	0.047	0.056
ECO	1	0.050	0.950	0.000
ECO	4	0.503	0.493	0.004
ECO	7	0.560	0.431	0.009
ECO	10	0.554	0.432	0.015
RES	1	0.100	0.018	0.882
RES	4	0.448	0.185	0.367
RES	7	0.424	0.246	0.331
RES	10	0.443	0.238	0.319

Coupled and coordinated relationships between population, socio-economic, and resource-environment in Xinjiang’s border areas under the background of border security

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 11

References 26

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

[1]	LU Zhiqiu, LYU Mingyang, LI Zhihui, XU Liping. Multi-dimensional evaluation and temporal evolution of urban-rural integration development in Xinjiang from the perspective of “people-land-industry” [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(8): 1750-1763.
[2]	WANG Ziyang, XIA Yong, WANG Fuhong, DING Ning, LYU Yi, SU Zechen. Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in counties of Xinjiang [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(7): 1385-1394.
[3]	CHEN Yaning, ZHU Chenggang, LI Zhi, FANG Gonghuan. Unlocking the potential of water resources for high-quality development in Xinjiang [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(6): 1101-1107.
[4]	LIU Xiao, ZHANG Xinhuan, CHEN Yang, YAN Hailong. Measurement of spatial conditions for urban-rural integration in Xinjiang from the perspective of “township-county-oasis” [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(5): 1039-1051.
[5]	BAI Yang, ZHAO Ping, LI Yongfeng, CHEN Mingzhu, SUN Yiyue. Spatial synergistic zoning of geotourism in Xinjiang [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(5): 1074-1086.
[6]	ZHU Yiting, LIANG Guixian, ZHOU Chunshan, XIN Long, LI Jinxue. Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of new quality productive forces development of cultural tourism in Xinjiang [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(1): 128-139.
[7]	Alim ARKEN, LI Ruqi, Nurzat ABDUKEYUM, Mayra AHAT, Xerinay TILIWALDI. Characteristics of rainfall and extreme rainfall in southern Xinjiang from 1961 to 2022 [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(1): 13-22.
[8]	YANG Di, ZOU Jin, MA Xiaofei, ZHANG Xun, ZHOU Rui, LIU Yanchun, SHI Jinlian. Spatial distribution characteristics and sustainable development of sports tourism resources: A case of Xinjiang [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(1): 140-150.
[9]	LIU Quanyu, LIU Xinlu, LI Guizhen, LI Congjuan. Fractal characteristics and driving factors of soil particle size in the surface layer of Xinjiang [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(1): 56-68.
[10]	LI Liangliang, XIA Yong, WANG Fuhong, GUO Bingxin, ZHAO Lanlan. Muskmelon production pattern and its contributing factors in Xinjiang [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(9): 1567-1577.
[11]	RUI Dongsheng, MAO Lu, REN Yanxia, GONG Haoxuan, LI Yanping, FU Zhicong. Spatial distribution characteristics and obstacle factors of relative poverty in Xinjiang [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(9): 1672-1682.
[12]	LIU Haijun, ZHANG Haihong, YAN Junjie, LI Xiang, LI Gaofeng. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and its influencing factors of agricultural carbon emission efficiency in Xinjiang [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(5): 866-878.
[13]	LI Songrui, LIN Qiuping, YANG Shangguang. Multi-scale evolution characteristics and influencing factors of spatial layout of logistics enterprises in Xinjiang [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(4): 739-752.
[14]	WANG Fuhong, XIA Yong. Spatio-temporal pattern evolution and influencing factors of main crops production in arid region: A case of Xinjiang [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(3): 444-454.
[15]	LI Mengyuan, PANG Jiapeng, LI Huan. Coordinated development of comprehensive accessibility of provincial typical tourism distribution centers and their spatial relationship: A case of Xinjiang [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(3): 539-548.