1960—2023年黄土高原极端降水事件时空演变特征

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.461

Abstract

Abstract:

The Loess Plateau of China has been experiencing an increase in extreme climate events due to global warming. Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events in this region is crucial for disaster prevention. This study analyzes daily precipitation data from 111 meteorological stations across the Loess Plateau, spanning the years 1960 to 2023. Using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), we established thresholds for extreme precipitation events and examined their spatiotemporal characteristics through the Mann-Kendall test and other methods. The findings reveal the following. (1) Extreme precipitation thresholds at meteorological stations vary between 27.4 mm and 89.1 mm, with 54% of the stations exceeding a threshold of 50 mm. The average threshold values across different ecological regions range from 35.0 mm to 59.6 mm, exhibiting a gradient that is lower in the northwest and higher in the southeast. (2) The amount and intensity of extreme precipitation events increase from 10.6 mm·a^-1 and 33.0 mm·d^-1 in the northwest to 71.5 mm·a^-1 and 133.0 mm·d^-1 in the southeast, respectively. The frequency of their occurrence increases from 0.3 d·a^-1 in the north to 0.8 d·a^-1 in the south. The number of extreme precipitation days closely aligns with heavy rain days, particularly in the loess hilly gully B2 sub-region. (3) The loess tableland gully, earth-rocky mountainous, and river valley plain regions are identified as high-risk areas for extreme precipitation events and should be prioritized for disaster prevention and control. (4) Over the past 64 years, extreme precipitation events have shown distinct interannual variability, with an overall increase observed, particularly in July and August. (5) In the last decade, the loess tableland gully and loess hilly gully regions have seen increased precipitation amounts and frequencies of extreme events. By contrast, the declining trend of extreme precipitation events in the sandy land and irrigated agricultural regions has slowed, whereas both the earth-rocky mountainous and river valley plain regions experienced a sudden spike in extreme precipitation events in 2020. This study serves as a reference for disaster prevention and mitigation regarding extreme precipitation events across the different ecological regions of the Loess Plateau.

Key words: extreme precipitation threshold, extreme precipitation events, temporal and spatial changes, ecological regionalization, Loess Plateau

ZHANG Xinhan, ZHAO Wenting, JIAO Juying, MA Xiaowu, YANG Bo, LING Qi. Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation events on the Loess Plateau from 1960 to 2023[J].Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(7): 1153-1166.

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极端降水指标		定义	单位
极端降水事件指标	极端降水量	年内超过极端降水阈值的降水量总和	mm
	极端降水日数	年内发生极端降水事件的日数	d
	极端降水强度	极端降水量与极端降水天数的比值	mm·d^-1
极端降水指数	连续降水日数（CWD）	年内日降水量≥1 mm的最长持续时间	d
	大雨日数（R25mm）	年内日降水量>25 mm的总日数	d
	暴雨日数（R50mm）	年内日降水量>50 mm的总日数	d
	日最大降水量（RX1day）	年内日降水量最大值	mm
	连续5 d最大降水量（RX5day）	年内连续5 d降水量最大值	mm

分区	雨量站数量/站	阈值范围/mm	平均值±标准误/mm
A1	26	27.4~49.1	35.0±1.1
A2	12	42.4~59.0	51.6±1.5
B1	10	53.3~61.2	57.1±0.7
B2	8	41.8~62.6	50.6±2.8
C	17	34.1~57.2	44.5±1.8
D	38	35.7~89.1	59.6±2.2

极端降水指标		生态分区
极端降水指标		A1	A2	B1	B2	C	D
极端降水事件指标	极端降水量/mm	22.83±1.71	33.75±2.22	35.37±2.18	30.09±1.74	21.08±1.81	42.94±2.34
	极端降水日数/d	0.50±0.03	0.49±0.03	0.48±0.03	0.46±0.03	0.34±0.02	0.53±0.02
	极端降水强度/mm·d^-1	45.17±1.68	68.35±2.11	74.99±1.23	66.40±4.24	59.91±2.40	79.91±3.33
极端降水指数	CWD/d	7.22±0.34	7.06±0.27	6.27±0.18	5.73±0.17	4.35±0.13	6.80±0.14
	R25mm/d	1.64±0.19	3.59±0.34	3.84±0.20	2.94±0.15	1.48±0.19	4.77±0.29
	R50mm/d	0.14±0.03	0.58±0.06	0.70±0.05	0.50±0.06	0.26±0.04	0.96±0.10
	RX1day/mm	33.81±1.41	50.53±1.89	54.27±1.27	48.30±2.12	38.10±1.91	59.64±2.43
	RX5day/mm	54.92±2.58	79.56±4.11	85.16±3.10	74.51±3.18	52.18±3.25	95.92±3.83

极端降水指标		平均值	最大值	最小值	变异系数	Z值	Sen斜率
极端降水事件指标	极端降水量/mm	32.4	76.7	7.5	0.40	1.40	0.128
	极端降水日数/d	0.5	0.9	0.1	0.39	1.49	0.001
	极端降水强度/mm·d^-1	66.9	90.9	54.5	0.10	0.25	0.009
极端降水指数	CWD/d	6.4	9.5	5.0	0.13	-1.63	-0.009
	R25mm/d	3.2	5.1	1.4	0.22	1.85	0.010
	R50mm/d	0.6	1.2	0.2	0.35	1.37	0.001
	RX1day/mm	48.0	61.3	32.2	0.12	0.74	0.035
	RX5day/mm	75.3	90.7	47.5	0.14	0.57	0.036

Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation events on the Loess Plateau from 1960 to 2023

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