Abstract:

Using remote sensing and GIS methods, this study reconstructs the spatiotemporal patterns of glacier changes and hazards along the China-Tajikistan Pamir highway from 2000 to 2021. We conducted a glacier hazard exposure assessment using both the range transformation and entropy weight methods. The results reveal the following. (1) Since 2000, the glacier area shrinkage rate along the China-Tajikistan Pamir highway has been 0.20%·a^-1±0.06%·a^-1, with a mass balance of -0.25±0.04 m w.e.·a^-1. In addition, the glacial lake area has expanded at a rate of 0.45%·a^-1 since 1992, all of which are several times greater than the overall levels observed in the entire Pamirs. (2) The increasing instability of glaciers has directly contributed to a widespread risk of glacier disasters along the China-Tajikistan Pamir highway, with medium and high-risk areas primarily concentrated in the western section of the highway. (3) The spatial pattern of glacier disaster exposure along the China-Tajikistan Pamir highway is largely influenced by factors such as the distribution density of disaster-causing elements and disaster-bearing bodies, the complexity of the terrain and geological environment, as well as spatial variations in climate change. This study elucidates the overarching pattern of glacier hazard exposure in the areas along the China-Tajikistan Pamir highway, offering valuable insights for research on hazard vulnerability, impact, and prediction.

Key words: glacier disaster, exposure assessment, China-Tajikistan Pamir highway, Pamirs