陇中地区干旱特征及其与降水量和潜在蒸散发的关系

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.683

Abstract

Abstract:

The Longzhong region, a critical zone for ecological security within the upper reaches of the Yellow River, has historically been confronted with water scarcity and recurrent droughts, impeding its development. The elucidation of the mechanisms through which climatic factors and drought risk are associated is of practical significance for the support of targeted drought mitigation, the optimization of water resource allocation, and the improvement of the operation of water conservancy projects. This study utilized precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data from 1980 to 2023 to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of drought and its coupled relationship with precipitation and PET. This analysis was conducted by applying methods such as the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), climate tendency rate, and spatial interpolation. The results indicate that: (1) The drought evolution in the Longzhong region is characterized by three distinguishable stages. From 1980 to 1990, the frequency of droughts was 29.55%, from 1991 to 2010, it was 42.49%, and from 2011 to 2023, it was 23.72%. (2) From 1991 to 2023, the frequency of moderate-to-severe droughts during the spring and summer months reached 19.23% or higher, posing a significant threat to key agricultural periods. A notable finding was the highly significant increasing trend (P<0.01) exhibited by spring PET in Dingxi City, which served to exacerbate the ongoing drought conditions. (3) El Niño events increase the risk of drought, with the frequency of moderate-to-severe droughts rising 5.21 percentage points in El Niño years compared to non-El Niño years. The present study discloses the differential patterns between climatic factors and drought risk in the Longzhong region, thereby providing a scientific basis for regional drought mitigation strategies, optimization of agricultural planting structures, and informed scheduling of water conservancy projects.

Key words: drought, spatiotemporal characteristics, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, Longzhong region

YANG Haofan, HUANG Weidong, NIU Zuirong. Drought characteristics and their relationship with precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in the Longzhong region[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(7): 1336-1346.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 3

Fig. 4

Tab. 4

Tab. 5

Fig. 5

References 34

[1]	顾杨旸, 赵文吉, 吴舒祺. 1980—2020年黄河流域气象干旱时空变化特征[J]. 中国农业气象, 2025, 46(8): 1192-1205.
	[Gu Yangyang, Zhao Wenji, Wu Shuqi. Temporal and spatial variations of drought in the Yellow River Basin from 1980 to 2020[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2025, 46(8): 1192-1205.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2025.08.011
[2]	郑孟林, 赵勇, 杨霞. 中国西北干旱区夏季降水异常的主模态年代际变化及其联系环流[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(9): 1511-1520. doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.569
	[Zheng Menglin, Zhao Yong, Yang Xia. Interdecadal changes and associated circulations in the dominant modes of summer rainfall anomaly in the arid region of northwest China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(9): 1511-1520.] doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.569
[3]	田瀚文, 赵燕, 陈怡平, 等. 近50 a甘肃省气象干旱时空变化分析[J]. 地球环境学报, 2023, 14(5): 603-617.
	[Tian Hanwen, Zhao Yan, Chen Yiping, et al. Analysis of the spatial and temporal variation of the meteorological drought in Gansu Province in recent 50 years[J]. Journal of Earth Environment, 2023, 14(5): 603-617.]
[4]	邵清军, 张俊红, 徐科展, 等. 甘肃白银农作物生长期降水量时空变化及干旱风险评估[J]. 成都信息工程大学学报, 2024, 39(2): 216-222.
	[Shao Qingjun, Zhang Junhong, Xu Kezhan, et al. Spatial-temporal changes and drought risk assessment of precipitation during crop growth period in Baiyin City Gansu[J]. Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology, 2024, 39(2): 216-222.]
[5]	王莉霞, 丁司铎, 张红丽, 等. 基于SPI指数的甘肃省不同自然气候区干旱特征及变化趋势分析[J]. 天水师范学院学报, 2021, 41(5): 29-38.
	[Wang Lixia, Ding Siduo, Zhang Hongli, et al. Analysis of drought characteristics and trends based on SPI index in different natural climate regions of Gansu Province[J]. Journal of Tianshui Normal University, 2021, 41(5): 29-38.]
[6]	周俊菊, 冯炜, 向鹃, 等. 基于SPEI指数的近58 a甘肃省干旱特征分析[J]. 气象科学, 2022, 42(1): 99-107.
	[Zhou Junju, Feng Wei, Xiang Juan, et al. Analysis of drought characteristics in Gansu Province in recent 58 years based on SPEI index[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences, 2022, 42(1): 99-107.]
[7]	王志春, 王彦平, 徐震宇, 等. 内蒙古不同干湿区潜在蒸散发变化特征及主导因子分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(4): 612-622. doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.480
	[Wang Zhichun, Wang Yanping, Xu Zhenyu, et al. Changes characteristics and dominant factors of potential evapotranspiration in different dry and wet zones of Inner Mongolia[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(4): 612-622.] doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.480
[8]	张克新, 苏志华, 刘金林, 等. 甘肃省降水集中度的变化特征及其与环流指数遥相关分析[J]. 水土保持研究, 2021, 28(5): 261-267.
	[Zhang Kexin, Su Zhihua, Liu Jinlin, et al. Characteristics of variation of precipitation concentration index and its teleconnection relationships with large-scale atmospheric circulations in Gansu Province[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2021, 28(5): 261-267.]
[9]	戴文渊, 张清华, 史权, 等. 2003—2022年黄河流域甘肃段水生态安全协同驱动机制研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(11): 1939-1950. doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.753
	[Dai Wenyuan, Zhang Qinghua, Shi Quan, et al. Synergistic driving mechanisms of water ecological security in the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin from 2003 to 2022[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(11): 1939-1950.] doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.753
[10]	张昕晗, 赵文婷, 焦菊英, 等. 1960—2023年黄土高原极端降水事件时空演变特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(7): 1153-1166. doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.461
	[Zhang Xinhan, Zhao Wenting, Jiao Juying, et al. Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation events on the Loess Plateau from 1960 to 2023[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(7): 1153-1166.] doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.461
[11]	李帅, 曾凌, 张存杰, 等. 长江上游近120年来气象干旱和水文干旱时空变化关系及其传递特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(3): 263-277.
	[Li Shuai, Zeng Ling, Zhang Cunjie, et al. Spatio-temporal variations and propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the upper Yangtze River Basin over last 120 years[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(3): 263-277.]
[12]	李敏, 王兴繁, 孙栋元, 等. 基于SPEI的甘肃省气象干旱时空演变特征分析[J]. 水土保持研究, 2025, 32(5): 191-200, 212.
	[Li Min, Wang Xingfan, Sun Dongyuan, et al. Analysis of spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of meteorological droughts in Gansu Province based on SPEI[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2025, 32(5): 191-200, 212.]
[13]	胡铁军, 张亮. 1961—2020年中国西北地区干旱时空演变特征及其对植被的影响[J]. 节水灌溉, 2025(4): 96-102, 117.
	[Hu Tiejun, Zhang Liang. Characteristics of spatial and temporal evolution of drought and its impact on vegetation in northwest China, 1961—2020[J]. Water Saving Irrigation, 2025(4): 96-102, 117.]
[14]	郑健, 鲍婷婷, 王春霞, 等. 考虑气候分区的甘肃省干旱时空分布特征分析[J]. 农业机械学报, 2023, 54(2): 311-320.
	[Zheng Jian, Bao Tingting, Wang Chunxia, et al. Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of drought in Gansu Province considering climate zoning[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery, 2023, 54(2): 311-320.]
[15]	菅煜婷, 张勃, 黄浩. 近58年甘肃气候变化区域差异分析及环流影响[J]. 高原气象, 2022, 41(5): 1291-1301. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2021.00066
	[Jian Yuting, Zhang Bo, Huang Hao. Regional difference analysis of climate change in Gansu Province in recent 58 years and its impact on circulation[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2022, 41(5): 1291-1301.] doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2021.00066
[16]	李欣璋, 别强, 石莹, 等. 中国西北地区不同类型草地NDVI对SPEI的时空响应特征[J/OL]. 甘肃农业大学学报. [2025-12-22]. https://link.cnki.net/urlid/62.1055.s.20251202.2007.008.
	[Li Xinzhang, Bie Qiang, Shi Ying, et al. Spatiotemporal response characteristics of NDVI to SPEI in different grassland types in northwest China[J/OL]. Journal of Gansu Agricultural University. [2025-12-22]. https://link.cnki.net/urlid/62.1055.s.20251202.2007.008.]
[17]	卓玛草, 袁建钰, 韩博, 等. 气候变化对甘肃省雨养农业区玉米种植区划的影响[J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 2021, 39(2): 211-219.
	[Zhuoma Cao, Yuan Jianyu, Han Bo, et al. Impact of climate change on maize-planting zoning in rainfed agricultural area of Gansu Province[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2021, 39(2): 211-219.]
[18]	彭守璋. 中国1 km逐月潜在蒸散发数据集(1901—2024)[DS/OL]. 国家青藏高原科学数据中心. [2025-12-22]. https://dx.doi.org/10.11866/db.loess.2021.001.
	[Peng Shouzhang. 1-km monthly potential evapotranspiration dataset for China (1901—2024)[J]. National Tibetan Plateau/Third Pole Environment Data Center. [2025-12-22]. https://dx.doi.org/10.11866/db.loess.2021.001.]
[19]	Peng S Z, Ding Y X, Wen Z M, et al. Spatiotemporal change and trend analysis of potential evapotranspiration over the Loess Plateau of China during 2011—2100[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2017, 233: 183-194. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.11.129
[20]	Ding Y X, Peng S Z. Spatiotemporal trends and attribution of drought across China from 1901—2100[J]. Sustainability, 2020, 12(2): 477, doi: 10.3390/su12020477.
[21]	Ding Y X, Peng S Z. Spatiotemporal change and attribution of potential evapotranspiration over China from 1901 to 2100[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2021, 145(1): 79-94. doi: 10.1007/s00704-021-03625-w
[22]	Peng S Z, Ding Y X, Liu W Z, et al. 1 km monthly temperature and precipitation dataset for China from 1901 to 2017[J]. Earth System Science Data, 2019, 11(4): 1931-1946. doi: 10.5194/essd-11-1931-2019
[23]	NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Historical El Niño/La Niña episodes (1950-present)[EB/OL]. [2025-10-02]. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php.
[24]	叶伟林, 黄钰涵, 周自强, 等. 祁连山地区近60年气温时空变化特征[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2022, 22(4): 1344-1353.
	[Ye Weilin, Huang Yuhan, Zhou Ziqiang, et al. Temporaland spatial variations of air temperature in the Qilian Mountains during the past 60 years[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2022, 22(4): 1344-1353.]
[25]	Vicente-Serrano S M, Beguería S, López-Moreno J I. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J]. Journal of Climate, 2010, 23(7): 1696-1718. doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1
[26]	Yang Q, Ma Z G, Zheng Z Y, et al. Sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration estimation to the Thornthwaite and Penman-Monteith methods in the study of global drylands[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2017, 34(12): 1381-1394. doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-6313-1
[27]	Allen R G, Pruitt W O. Rational use of the FAO blaney-criddle formula[J]. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, 1986, 112(2): 139-155. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9437(1986)112:2(139)
[28]	GB/T20481-2017. 中华人民共和国国家标准: 气象干旱等级[S]. 北京: 中国标准出版社, 2017.
	[GB/T20481-2017. National standard of the People’s Republic of China: Meteorological drought levels[S]. Beijing: China Standards Press, 2017.]
[29]	魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 第2版. 北京: 气象出版社, 2007.
	[Wei Fengying. Modern climate statistical diagnosis and prediction techniques[M]. 2^nd ed. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 2007.]
[30]	张强, 杨泽粟, 郝小翠, 等. 北方蒸散对气候变暖响应随降水类型转换特征[J]. 科学通报, 2018, 63(11): 1035-1049.
	[Zhang Qiang, Yang Zesu, Hao Xiaocui, et al. Transition features of surface evapotranspiration responding to climate warming with spatial precipitation-based climate type in northern China[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2018, 63(11): 1035-1049.]
[31]	杨司琪, 张强, 奚小霞, 等. 中国夏季风影响过渡区与其他地区蒸发皿蒸发量趋势相反的原因[J]. 大气科学, 2019, 43(6): 1441-1450.
	[Yang Siqi, Zhang Qiang, Xi Xiaoxia, et al. The reason of trends in pan evaporation in the summer monsoon transition region contrary to those of other regions in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2019, 43(6): 1441-1450.]
[32]	杨司琪, 张强, 奚小霞, 等. 夏季风影响过渡区与非夏季风影响过渡区蒸发皿蒸发趋势的对比分析[J]. 高原气象, 2018, 37(4): 1017-1024. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00006
	[Yang Siqi, Zhang Qiang, Xi Xiaoxia, et al. Comparative analysis of pan evaporation trends between the summer monsoon transition region and other regions of China[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2018, 37(4): 1017-1024.] doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00006
[33]	阳伏林, 张强, 王文玉, 等. 黄土高原春小麦农田蒸散及其影响因素[J]. 生态学报, 2014, 34(9): 2323-2328.
	[Yang Fulin, Zhang Qiang, Wang Wenyu, et al. Evapotranspiration and factors influencing evapotranspiration in the spring wheat farmland of China’s Loess Plateau[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2014, 34(9): 2323-2328.]
[34]	张强, 张之贤, 问晓梅, 等. 陆面蒸散量观测方法比较分析及其影响因素研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2011, 26(5): 538-547.
	[Zhang Qiang, Zhang Zhixian, Wen Xiaomei, et al. Comparisons of observational methods of land surface evapotranspiration and their influence factors[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2011, 26(5): 538-547.]

站点	面积权重	海拔/m	站点	面积权重	海拔/m
兰州气象站	0.0119	1534	会川站	0.0204	2253
红崖子站	0.0316	1668	临洮站	0.0137	1877
七道梁站	0.0138	2280	红旗站	0.0067	1780
皋兰气象站	0.0302	1672	漳县气象站	0.0355	1884
崖渠川站	0.0187	1827	岷县站	0.0315	2611
榆中气象站	0.0049	2160	酒店子站	0.0228	2702
夏官营站	0.0156	1703	申都站	0.0148	2585
吕家岘站	0.0303	2392	闾井站	0.0212	2618
黄石坪站	0.0098	2469	白银气象站	0.0317	1725
石骨岔站	0.0075	2539	水泉站	0.0216	1623
永登气象站	0.0293	2121	打拉池站	0.0387	1761
武胜驿站	0.0070	2488	兴水站	0.0160	1822
石并掌站	0.0091	2740	白茨水站	0.0183	1930
连城站	0.0161	1936	万家台站	0.0304	1431
牌楼站	0.0228	2255	喜集水站	0.0419	1769
古城站	0.0062	2800	论古站	0.0215	1854
红土站	0.0230	1977	靖远站	0.0220	1411
内官营站	0.0127	2029	刘川站	0.0214	1640
巉口站	0.0142	1881	郭城驿站	0.0251	1532
葛家岔站	0.0195	2176	甘沟驿站	0.0208	1625
青岗站	0.0218	2344	草滩站	0.0333	2132
何家坡站	0.0446	2133	会宁站	0.0175	1730
渭源站	0.0223	2092	太平店站	0.0136	2046
峡口站	0.0149	2194	党家岘站	0.0220	2174

站点	面积权重	海拔/m	站点	面积权重	海拔/m
兰州气象站	0.1245	1534	岷县站	0.0904	2611
武胜驿站	0.0803	2488	白银气象站	0.1445	1725
连城站	0.0439	1936	论古站	0.1478	1854
红土站	0.1069	1977	会宁站	0.1460	1730
渭源站	0.1156	2092

区域	季节	降水量倾向率/mm·a^-1	PET倾向率/mm·a^-1	差值/mm·a^-1	SPEI倾向率/a^-1	区域	季节	降水量倾向率/mm·a^-1	PET倾向率/mm·a^-1	差值/mm·a^-1	SPEI倾向率/a^-1
兰州市	春季	-0.02	0.22	-0.24	-0.01	定西市	春季	-0.25	0.37^**	-0.62	-0.02
	夏季	-0.18	0.12	-0.30	-0.01		夏季	-0.14	0.26	-0.40	-0.01
	秋季	0.59	-0.05	0.64	0.02		秋季	0.54	-0.03	0.57	0.01
	冬季	0.06	-0.02	0.08	0.01		冬季	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.00
	全年	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.00		全年	0.04	0.48	-0.44	-0.01
白银市	春季	-0.11	0.21	-0.32	-0.01	陇中地区	春季	-0.13	0.26	-0.39	-0.01
	夏季	-0.33	0.13	-0.46	-0.01		夏季	-0.22	0.17	-0.39	-0.01
	秋季	0.51	-0.09	0.60	0.02		秋季	0.54	-0.06	0.60	0.02
	冬季	0.11	-0.01	0.12	0.02		冬季	0.06	0.01	0.05	0.01
	全年	0.24	0.17	0.07	0.00		全年	0.23	0.28	-0.05	0.00

区域	年份	降水量倾向率	PET倾向率	差值	区域	年份	降水量倾向率	PET倾向率	差值
兰州市	1980—1990	11.50^*	3.62	7.88	定西市	1980—1990	2.07	3.15	-1.08
	1991—2010	-4.26^*	0.74	-5.00		1991—2010	-0.39	1.14	-1.53
	2011—2023	-0.12	-0.03	-0.09		2011—2023	0.71	0.75	-0.04
白银市	1980—1990	8.10	3.52	4.58	陇中地区	1980—1990	7.13	3.39	3.74
	1991—2010	-2.99	0.39	-3.38		1991—2010	-2.32	0.74	-3.06
	2011—2023	-1.64	2.03	-3.67		2011—2023	-0.30	1.06	-1.36

年份	季节	兰州市	白银市	定西市
1980—1990	春夏季	13.64	9.09	9.09
	秋冬季	22.73	22.73	22.73
1991—2010	春夏季	27.50	22.50	22.50
	秋冬季	20.00	20.00	25.00
2011—2023	春夏季	19.23	19.23	26.92
	秋冬季	7.69	7.69	3.85

Drought characteristics and their relationship with precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in the Longzhong region

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 10

References 34

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

[1]	WEN Mingjun, WU Zhitao, DU Ziqiang, LIANG Hanxue, CHEN Xin, LEI Tianjie. Ecological drought monitoring and spatiotemporal changes in the Mongolian Plateau [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(7): 1311-1322.
[2]	GAO Ying, ZHOU Keli, YUAN Yuan, SHI Xinru, WU Jialin. Spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanism of coupling coordination between tourism economy and residents’ well-being in the Yellow River Basin [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(7): 1493-1508.
[3]	LIU Yangyang, MAO Kebiao, GUO Zhonghua, YUAN Zijin. Spatiotemporal characteristics and hybrid model prediction of meteorological drought in China [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(5): 881-893.
[4]	ZHOU Yue, LU Ruijie, HUANG Mengzhen. Spatiotemporal characteristics of multi-timescale meteorological drought in the Ili River Basin [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(5): 894-906.
[5]	ZHANG Yaru, HE Yingying, YU Minghan, WU Hao, ZHENG Xiang, ZHANG Ping. Visual analysis of the effects of precipitation on non-structural carbohydrate in plants based on CiteSpace [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(3): 521-533.
[6]	ZHANG Lu, ZHOU Bingrong, YAN Yuqian, CAO Xiaoyun, MA Youxuan. Impact of westerly-monsoon synergistic interaction on summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(2): 332-342.
[7]	CHENG Xi’an, NIU Quanfu, WANG Gang, SHAO Donghu, ZHU Dengfeng, WANG Zhenyu. Monitoring and influencing factors of vegetation drought resistance on the Loess Plateau [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(1): 1-12.
[8]	Alim ARKEN, LI Ruqi, Nurzat ABDUKEYUM, Mayra AHAT, Xerinay TILIWALDI. Characteristics of rainfall and extreme rainfall in southern Xinjiang from 1961 to 2022 [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(1): 13-22.
[9]	LIU Jinghui, YUAN Xushan, LI Yanmin, LI Xinxu. Spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Ili River Basin based on CMIP6 [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(8): 1329-1341.
[10]	ZHANG Chunyan, LI Yanying, WU Wen, CHEN Jing, MA Xingwei, NIE Xin. Causes and transport characteristics of two strong sandstorms in summer and autumn in the Hexi Corridor [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(8): 1363-1373.
[11]	ZHANG Xinhan, ZHAO Wenting, JIAO Juying, MA Xiaowu, YANG Bo, LING Qi. Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation events on the Loess Plateau from 1960 to 2023 [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(7): 1153-1166.
[12]	WU Xiulan, CHENG Heqian, TONG Xinyi, ZHANG Xu. Response of vegetation changes to meteorological drought in Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(6): 985-994.
[13]	WANG Zhichun, WANG Yanping, XU Zhenyu, XUE Wenchao. Changes characteristics and dominant factors of potential evapotranspiration in different dry and wet zones of Inner Mongolia [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(4): 612-622.
[14]	ZHENG Menglin, ZHAO Yong, YANG Xia. Variation characteristics of summer precipitation in the arid region of northwest China from 1961 to 2022 [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(3): 367-379.
[15]	MOU Huan, CHEN Chunyan, YANG Xia, ZHAO Li. Evaluation of hourly and daily precipitation forecasting performance of the CMA-MESO model in the warm season: A case of the Ili River Valley [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(2): 179-189.