适用于流域尺度精准灾害管理的综合风险区划

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.238

Abstract

Abstract:

Risk zoning, a key method in disaster risk management, plays a significant role in the accurate identification of disaster risks and scientific allocation of disaster prevention resources. Accordingly, a risk zoning model was constructed employing a three-level system of “disaster-prone environmental sensitivity, natural disaster impact significance, and disaster risk levels” and applied to natural geographical data, disaster statistics, and field survey data for the Ili River Basin in Xinjiang, a typical watershed, using a 1 km grid, to conduct comprehensive risk zoning for major disaster types in the basin. This study employed 12 evaluation indicators corresponding to 3 categories of factors to divide the region into 3 disaster-prone environmental sensitivity zones, 9 natural disaster significant impact zones, and 26 comprehensive risk zones to conduct an in-depth analysis of specific disaster types. The accuracy of the results was validated using field data and survey questionnaires. The results indicate that (1) The comprehensive disaster risk in the Ili River Basin shows an east-high, west-low trend, with significant spatial differences. (2) Multiple types of disasters frequently occur in the basin, including floods, geological disasters, droughts, and snow disasters. (3) The zoning results are consistent with historical data and relevant studies in terms of overall spatial distribution and the representation of typical disaster types. Unlike more macro-scale national disaster risk assessments, this study was conducted on the scale of a watershed to take into consideration the unique geological structure, climate characteristics, and other disaster-prone environmental factors of the study area. By constructing a risk zoning system tailored to the local context, this study was intended to enhance the precision and effectiveness of local disaster risk management and ensure the sustainable development of the region’s ecological economy.

Key words: watershed scale, disaster management, zoning, comprehensive disaster risk, Ili River Basin

ZHANG Jingxin, ZHOU Lei, HU Senmiao, YU Yang, LIU Jinghui, WU Jianjun. Integrated risk zoning for accurate disaster management at the watershed scale[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(4): 816-829.

Figures/Tables 19

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目标层	准则层	准则层权重	指标层	指标层权重	一致性指标	一致性比率
敏感性指标	气象条件	0.481	降水量	0.401	0.011	0.009
	气象条件	0.481	气温	0.080
	地形条件	0.430	高程标准差	0.263
	地形条件	0.430	坡度	0.167
	地貌条件	0.089	土壤类型	0.054
	地貌条件	0.089	土地利用类型	0.035

目标层	准则层	准则层权重	指标层	指标层权重	一致性指标	一致性比率
灾害影响显著性指标	灾害数量	0.048	灾害数量	0.048	0.012	0.009
	人口	0.410	受灾人口占比	0.151
	人口	0.410	死亡人口占比	0.259
	农业	0.240	农作物受灾面积占比	0.105
	农业	0.240	农作物绝收面积占比	0.125
	经济损失	0.312	直接经济损失	0.312

指标层	极低敏感性	低敏感性	中等敏感性	高敏感性	极高敏感性	权重
降水量/mm	<201	202~250	251~300	301~375	376~525	0.397
气温/℃	<-4.00	-3.90~-0.25	-0.24~3.60	3.61~7.80	7.81~12.30	0.080
高程标准差/m	<2.000	2.001~8.000	8.001~15.000	15.001~1700.000	1700.001~3000.000	0.263
坡度/(°)	<8	9~18	19~28	29~38	39~85	0.167
土壤类型	砂土、砂质壤土和壤质砂土	粉砂、壤土	砂质粘壤土	砂质黏土、粉质黏土和黏土	黏壤土、粉质粘壤土	0.057
土地利用类型	不透水面	森林、湿地	草地、农田	荒地	湖泊、雪山	0.036

敏感性分级	孕灾环境敏感性指数	面积/km²	占比/%
低敏感性	1.29~2.04	17809.26	31.76
中低敏感性	2.05~2.69	13996.23	24.96
中等敏感性	2.70~3.25	9366.95	16.70
中高敏感性	3.26~3.84	7588.53	13.53
高敏感性	3.85~4.98	7320.46	13.05

编码	区域名称	面积占比/%
Ⅰ-A	低敏平原洪涝地灾危险区	22.32
Ⅰ-B	低敏平原洪涝危险区	14.41
Ⅰ-C	低敏平原干旱危险区	4.50
Ⅱ-A	中敏丘陵洪涝地灾危险区	14.65
Ⅱ-B	中敏丘陵洪涝危险区	12.23
Ⅱ-C	中敏丘陵干旱危险区	6.27
Ⅲ-A	高敏山地洪涝地灾危险区	9.54
Ⅲ-B	高敏山地洪涝危险区	8.93
Ⅲ-C	高敏山地干旱危险区	7.16

Integrated risk zoning for accurate disaster management at the watershed scale

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编码	区域名称	编码	区域名称
Ⅰ-A-a	低敏平原洪涝地灾高风险区	Ⅱ-A-d	中敏丘陵洪涝地灾低风险区
Ⅰ-A-b	低敏平原洪涝地灾中高风险区	Ⅱ-B-a	中敏丘陵洪涝高中风险区
Ⅰ-A-c	低敏平原洪涝地灾中风险区	Ⅱ-B-b	中敏丘陵洪涝中高风险区
Ⅰ-A-d	低敏平原洪涝地灾低风险区	Ⅱ-C-a	中敏丘陵干旱高风险区
Ⅰ-B-a	低敏平原洪涝高风险区	Ⅱ-C-c	中敏丘陵干旱中风险区
Ⅰ-B-b	低敏平原洪涝中高风险区	Ⅱ-A-a	高敏山区洪涝地灾高风险区
Ⅰ-B-c	低敏平原洪涝中风险区	Ⅲ-A-b	高敏山区洪涝地灾中高风险区
Ⅰ-B-d	低敏平原洪涝低风险区	Ⅲ-A-c	高敏山区洪涝地灾中风险区
Ⅰ-C-a	低敏平原干旱高风险区	Ⅲ-A-d	高敏山区洪涝地灾低风险区
Ⅰ-C-b	低敏平原干旱中高风险区	Ⅲ-B-a	高敏山区洪涝高风险区
Ⅱ-A-a	中敏丘陵洪涝地灾高风险区	Ⅲ-B-b	高敏山区洪涝中高风险区
Ⅱ-A-b	中敏丘陵洪涝地灾中高风险区	Ⅲ-C-a	高敏山区干旱高风险区
Ⅱ-A-c	中敏丘陵洪涝地灾中风险区	Ⅲ-C-b	高敏山区干旱中高风险区

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