黄河流域水资源-生态韧性动态耦合与级层障碍解析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2025.229

Abstract

Abstract:

Understanding the dynamic coupling relationship and obstacle factors affecting water resource resilience and ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin of China is essential for promoting regional sustainable development. Based on panel data from nine provinces and regions in the Yellow River Basin from 2011 to 2022, this study comprehensively employed the “pressure-state-response” (PSR) model, a combined weighting method, and an adjusted coupling coordination degree model to calculate the coupling coordination degree between water resource resilience and ecological resilience. A variable-length Markov chain was used to examine the dynamic evolutionary patterns and state transition paths of the coupling coordination degree, and an obstacle degree model was constructed to identify the main obstacle factors. The results indicate that: (1) The resilience of water resources and ecological systems in the Yellow River Basin followed a fluctuating upward trend from 2011 to 2022, with significant spatial heterogeneity. (2) The coupling coordination degree improved continuously over the study period, with relatively higher levels in the upper and middle reaches and lower levels in the lower reaches. The coordinated regions exhibited an evolutionary pattern from point to area and from south to northeast. (3) The state transition paths of the coupling coordination degrees were relatively stable, with upward stepwise transitions as the main pattern. Transition probabilities increased with greater step length. (4) The main obstacle factors at the criterion level are the state of water resources, ecological response, and ecological status. The main obstacle factors at the indicator level include surface water, total water resources, number of urban parks, groundwater, and green space area of parks. These findings provide a basis for formulating more targeted policies to promote ecological security and transformation, thereby facilitating regional coordinated development.

Key words: water resources resilience, ecological resilience, coupling coordination degree, Markov chain, obstacle degree mode, Yellow River Basin

WANG Huili, LI Niu, LIU Ying, LIU Yonghan. Dynamic coupling and hierarchical obstacle analysis of water resources and ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(3): 569-580.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Tab. 1

Evaluation index system for water resource resilience and ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin"

目标层	准则层	指标层	属性	层次分析法权重	熵值法权重	组合权重
水资源韧性	水资源压力（B₁）	人口密度（C₁）/人·km^-2	-	0.064	0.065	0.065
		人口自然增长率（C₂）/%	-	0.031	0.046	0.037
		万元GDP用水量（C₃）/m²·(10⁴元)^-1	-	0.010	0.023	0.015
		人均废水排放量（C₄）/t·人^-1	-	0.023	0.038	0.029
		水资源开发利用率（C₅）/%	-	0.023	0.044	0.032
	水资源状态（B₂）	产水系数（C₆）/%	+	0.088	0.085	0.087
		地表水（C₇）/10⁸ km³	+	0.273	0.238	0.259
		地下水（C₈）/10⁸ km³	+	0.127	0.111	0.121
		水资源总量（C₉）/10⁸ km³	+	0.227	0.201	0.216
	水资源响应（B₃）	降水变异系数（C₁₀）/%	+	0.031	0.044	0.036
		城市污水处理率（C₁₁）/%	+	0.013	0.021	0.016
		森林覆盖率（C₁₂）/%	+	0.090	0.085	0.088
生态韧性	生态压力（B₄）	人口密度（C₁₃）/人·km^-2	-	0.020	0.022	0.028
		人均用水量（C₁₄）/m²·人^-1	-	0.020	0.033	0.021
		人均工业烟（粉）尘排放量（C₁₅）/t·人^-1	-	0.029	0.020	0.031
		工业SO₂排放量（C₁₆）/10⁴ t	-	0.098	0.082	0.067
		生活垃圾清运量（C₁₇）/10⁴ t	-	0.034	0.024	0.054
	生态状态（B₅）	建成区绿化覆盖率（C₁₈）/%	+	0.031	0.084	0.028
		城市公园数量（C₁₉）/个	+	0.202	0.084	0.155
		公园绿地面积（C₂₀）/10⁴ km²	+	0.098	0.017	0.093
		空气质量优良率（C₂₁）/%	+	0.008	0.123	0.011
		水资源总量（C₂₂）/10⁸ km³	+	0.044	0.088	0.076
	生态响应（B₆）	市容环卫专用车辆设备总数（C₂₃）/辆	+	0.026	0.065	0.051
		无害化处理厂数量（C₂₄）/座	+	0.101	0.115	0.086
		排水管道长度（C₂₅）/km	+	0.047	0.112	0.074
		治理废水项目完成投资（C₂₆）/10⁴元	+	0.022	0.082	0.058
		城市生活垃圾清运量（C₂₇）/10⁴ t	+	0.091	0.009	0.087
		城市生活垃圾无害化处理率（C₂₈）/%	+	0.091	0.022	0.058

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Tab. 4

Fig. 6

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子系统韧性	陕西	四川	青海	河南	山东	内蒙古	甘肃	宁夏	山西
水资源韧性	0.024	0.028	0.083	0.029	0.033	0.029	0.088	0.044	0.027
生态韧性	-0.014	0.006	0.018	0.002	-0.007	0.018	0.011	0.012	0.006

省区	水资源韧性				生态韧性
省区	2011年	2015年	2019年	2022年	2011年	2015年	2019年	2022年
青海	0.342	0.323	0.427	0.381	0.198	0.184	0.246	0.256
四川	0.764	0.756	0.863	0.769	0.404	0.468	0.612	0.663
甘肃	0.221	0.217	0.282	0.271	0.169	0.201	0.293	0.318
内蒙古	0.317	0.333	0.319	0.347	0.219	0.273	0.334	0.355
宁夏	0.108	0.125	0.152	0.175	0.152	0.184	0.225	0.249
陕西	0.394	0.333	0.368	0.376	0.293	0.300	0.369	0.410
河南	0.238	0.218	0.201	0.251	0.307	0.361	0.506	0.544
山西	0.201	0.191	0.208	0.247	0.220	0.266	0.351	0.377
山东	0.227	0.156	0.189	0.307	0.497	0.555	0.765	0.828

Dynamic coupling and hierarchical obstacle analysis of water resources and ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin

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年份	类别	准则层			指标层
年份	类别	第一	第二	第三	第一	第二	第三	第四	第五
2011	障碍因子	B₂	B₆	B₅	C₇	C₉	C₁₉	C₂₀	C₈
2011	障碍度	36.95	22.67	20.98	15.12	12.37	9.79	5.68	5.67
2015	障碍因子	B₂	B₆	B₅	C₇	C₉	C₁₉	C₈	C₂₀
2015	障碍度	38.96	21.47	20.47	15.76	12.92	9.31	6.05	5.34
2019	障碍因子	B₂	B₆	B₅	C₇	C₉	C₁₉	C₈	C₂₄
2019	障碍度	40.42	21.28	20.55	16.37	13.43	9.45	6.36	5.46
2022	障碍因子	B₂	B₆	B₅	C₇	C₉	C₁₉	C₈	C₂₆
2022	障碍度	44.37	20.85	18.83	18.20	14.88	7.97	6.93	5.20

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