1990—2020年新疆伊犁地区雪灾时空分布特征及其影响评估

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Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and impact assessment of snow disasters in the Ili region of Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020

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doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.609

Abstract:

The snow disasters in the Ili region of Xinjiang, China, have led to significant economic and social impacts, mainly through reduced agricultural production and ecosystem damage. To quantify and evaluate the impact of snow disasters in this region, this study analyzed 95 snow disaster events that occurred between 1990 and 2020. A disaster loss index was calculated using selected indicators, dimensionless processing, and weight assignment. The severity of snow disasters was categorized into four levels (mild, moderate, severe, and extreme) using the percentile method. The key findings are as follows: (1) Snow disasters in the Ili region exhibited a bimodal distribution, with peak occurrences in November and January-February, aligning with the region’s seasonal climatic characteristics. Since 2014, the frequency of snow disasters has notably decreased. (2) Mild snow disasters were the most frequent, accounting for 49.4% of events, while moderate, severe, and extreme snow disasters represented 23.2%, 24.2%, and 5.0%, respectively. (3) The most severe disaster losses were observed in Nilka County, followed by Xinyuan County and Yining County, whereas Zhaosu County was the least affected. (4) Key meteorological factors influencing snow disasters, including cumulative snowfall, maximum snow depth, minimum temperature, and snowfall duration, displayed regional variations. Areas with high snow disaster incidence had higher mean values of maximum snow depth compared to other regions. This study provides a scientific foundation for risk assessment and management of snow disasters in the Ili region.

Key words: snow disasters, disaster loss index, intensity and frequency, spatial patterns, Ili region

HUO Hong, LIU Yan, Maiwulaxia MUBAREKE. Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and impact assessment of snow disasters in the Ili region of Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020[J].Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(11): 1828-1840.

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灾情指标		影响人口/人	死亡人口/人	倒塌房屋/间	直接经济损失/10⁴元	死亡大牲畜/头	农作物受灾面积/km²
统计值	平均值	3602.19	0.73	288.81	552.21	533.66	1813.27
	最大值	50557.00	9.00	5852.00	8000.00	9500.00	86666.67
	无量纲求和	6.84	6.53	4.74	6.63	2.36	2.01
6指标	权重	0.21	0.20	0.15	0.21	0.17	0.06
6指标	与灾损指数的相关系数	0.69	0.51	0.58	0.52	0.29	0.20
5指标	权重	0.23	0.22	0.16	0.22	0.18	-
5指标	与灾损指数的相关系数	0.72	0.52	0.59	0.47	0.29	-
4指标	权重	0.28	0.26	0.19	0.27	-	-
4指标	与灾损指数的相关系数	0.78	0.56	0.63	0.54	-	-

灾情指标	百分位数/%	灾损指数阈值	危害等级	出现次数	影响人口/人	死亡人口/人	倒塌房屋/间	直接经济损失/10⁴元	死亡大牲畜/头	农作物受灾面积/km²
6指标	(-∞, 25]	(-∞, 0.02]	1	47	3658.15	0.68	298.22	534.34	551.00	1863.07
	(25, 50]	(0.02, 0.09]	2	25	3912.57	0.65	334.90	550.61	621.26	1768.47
	(50, 75]	(0.09, 0.24]	3	18	3640.51	0.74	291.88	556.81	539.34	1832.53
	(75, 100]	(0.24, ∞)	4	5	4330.55	0.60	407.06	550.02	780.84	883.93
5指标	(-∞, 25]	(-∞, 0.02]	1	48	3640.45	0.67	291.88	557.91	539.24	-
	(25, 50]	(0.02, 0.09]	2	22	4310.03	0.68	376.18	518.19	698.46	-
	(50, 75]	(0.09, 0.23]	3	20	3640.51	0.74	291.88	356.81	539.34	-
	(75, 100]	(0.23, ∞)	4	5	6471.79	0.82	636.77	507.47	1274.92	-
4指标	(-∞, 25]	(-∞, 0.02]	1	47	3640.45	0.67	291.89	557.91	-	-
	(25, 50]	(0.02, 0.08]	2	24	4390.75	0.50	390.98	534.77	-	-
	(50, 75]	(0.08, 0.28]	3	19	3640.51	0.74	291.88	556.81	-	-
	(75, 100]	(0.28, ∞)	4	5	6471.79	0.82	636.77	507.47	-	-

县名	雪灾发生地名称	雪灾开始日期（年-月-日）	雪灾结束日期（年-月-日）	灾情指标数
县名	雪灾发生地名称	雪灾开始日期（年-月-日）	雪灾结束日期（年-月-日）	4指标	5指标	6指标
新源县	全县范围	1999-12-29	2000-01-04	符合	符合	符合
新源县	坎苏乡、那拉提镇	2010-01-09	2010-01-26	符合	符合	符合
新源县	那拉提镇	2010-02-24	2010-02-24	符合	符合	符合
伊宁县	伊宁县县域	2010-02-26	2010-03-31	符合	符合	符合
伊宁县	伊宁县各乡镇	2010-02-26	2010-03-03	符合	不符合	符合
霍城县	61团、62团	2013-03-31	2013-04-01	不符合	不符合	符合

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