昆仑山北坡高山流域洪水变化特征

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.175

Abstract

Abstract:

Flooding is one of the most devastating natural disasters, and under the influence of global warming, the magnitude and timing of floods in high-altitude mountain regions have experienced notable changes, significantly affecting human societies and ecosystems. This study employs the MissForest algorithm to impute daily discharge data for six mountain passes on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains, Xinjiang, China, analyzing trends in flood magnitude, timing, rise and recede durations for six source streams and mountain passes from 1961 to 2022, as well as the daily average annual maximum flood discharge. The key findings are as follows: (1) 97% of the annual maximum 1-day flow (AMF) events occur during the summer season. The AMF at Wuluwati and Tongguziluoke stations shows an increasing trend, while Pishan, Qira, Nunumaimaitilangan, and Qiemo stations exhibit a decreasing trend. Changes in AMF are statistically significant at all stations except Pishan and Wuluwati. The spring maximum 1-day flow (AMFSp) at all stations shows an increasing trend, with the most pronounced increases at Wuluwati, Tongguziluoke, and Nunumaimaitilangan stations. Regarding flood timing, the annual maximum 1-day flow date (AMFD) at five stations (excluding Pishan) exhibits an insignificant trend toward earlier occurrences. For the spring maximum 1-day flow date (AMFDSp), none of the six stations show a significant trend toward earlier timing. (2) Concerning the rise time of flooding, Tongguziluoke and Qiemo stations experienced an extension, while the other four stations showed a reduction. For the recede time of floods, Pishan and Qira stations have extended durations, whereas the other stations have shorter recede times, with no significant overall trend. The average daily discharge during the maximum flood has significantly increased at Pishan Station, significantly decreased at Nunumaimaitilangan and Qiemo stations, and has shown no significant change at the other stations. These findings are crucial for improving hydrological and ecological management, flood mitigation, disaster reduction, regional water management, and disaster risk assessment in arid regions.

Key words: MissForest, maximum 1-day flow, flood process, northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains

QIU Zewei, FANG Gonghuan, CHEN Yaning, ZHU Chenggang, LIANG Wenting, DI Yanfeng, LYU Haodong. Characteristics of flood change in alpine watershed on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains[J].Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(11): 1816-1827.

Figures/Tables 11

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References 74

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河流	水文站	流域面积/km²	水文站高程/m
皮山河	皮山	2227	2300
喀拉喀什河	乌鲁瓦提	19983	1850
玉龙喀什河	同古孜洛克	14575	1650
策勒河	策勒	2032	1515
克里雅河	努努买买提兰干	7358	1880
车尔臣河	且末	26822	1250

水文站	缺失率	缺失年份
皮山	0.43	1990—2000，2003，2006，2012—2022
乌鲁瓦提	0.27	1999—2000，2004，2012—2022
同古孜洛克	0.20	1961，2012—2022
策勒	0.41	1990—2000，2004，2006，2012—2022
努努买买提兰干	0.40	1990—2000，2004，2006，2012—2022
且末	0.41	1975，1990—2000，2004，2006，2012—2022

水文站	训练数据样本量/d	验证数据样本量（随机重复实验20次）	RMSE	KGE	NSE	R²
皮山	12982	365	6.50	0.79	0.81	0.82
乌鲁瓦提	16562	365	27.41	0.83	0.71	0.80
同古孜洛克	18142	365	29.84	0.80	0.86	0.87
策勒	13360	365	2.39	0.78	0.70	0.74
努努买买提兰干	13574	365	11.14	0.84	0.77	0.77
且末	13276	365	7.63	0.70	0.68	0.68

水文站	指标	Zc值	趋势	显著性	水文站	指标	Zc值	趋势	显著性
皮山	AMF	-0.373	↓	不显著	策勒	AMF	-2.900^***	↓	99%
	AMFSp	0.541	↑	不显著		AMFSp	0.367	↑	不显著
	AMFD	1.476	→	90%		AMFD	-0.075	←	不显著
	AMFDSp	-1.085	←	不显著		AMFDSp	-1.073	←	不显著
乌鲁瓦提	AMF	0.560	↑	不显著	努努买买提兰干	AMF	-3.435^***	↓	99%
	AMFSp	2.352^***	↑	99%		AMFSp	1.817^**	↑	95%
	AMFD	-0.878	←	不显著		AMFD	-0.554	←	不显著
	AMFDSp	-0.306	←	不显著		AMFDSp	-1.136	←	不显著
同古孜洛克	AMF	2.172^**	↑	95%	且末	AMF	-2.489^***	↓	99%
	AMFSp	3.031^***	↑	99%		AMFSp	0.635	↑	不显著
	AMFD	-0.785	←	不显著		AMFD	-0.392	←	不显著
	AMFDSp	-0.630	←	不显著		AMFDSp	-0.891	←	不显著

水文站	1961—1992年			1993—2022年
水文站	平均起涨时间/d	平均消退时间/d	年最大洪水日平均流量/m³·s^-1	平均起涨时间/d	平均消退时间/d	年最大洪水日平均流量/m³·s^-1
皮山	8.09	7.19	38.37	7.47↓	9.43↑	44.23↑^**
乌鲁瓦提	9.90	8.38	303.59	9.70↓	7.93↓	288.62↓
同古孜洛克	10.72	10.00	366.99	10.80↑	8.60↓	364.45↓
策勒	7.25	7.03	18.06	6.53↓	7.50↑	14.70↓
努努买买提兰干	9.78	8.19	88.31	8.97↓	7.13↓	74.36↓^**
且末	9.34	9.87	43.22	10.22↑	8.00↓	40.31↓^***

Characteristics of flood change in alpine watershed on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains

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[2]	LI Xiaomeng, YANG Lianmei, LI Jiangang, LIU Jing. Mesoscale convective systems characteristic analysis of the “6·14” extreme rainstorm in northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(10): 1700-1712.