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›› 2015, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (4): 843-850.

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Mechanism of carbon emissions intensity response to industrial evolvement and energy consumption structure change in Shaanxi Province

ZHU Ni1,2, ZHANG Yan-fang1   

  1. 1. College of Tourism and Environment, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710062, Shaaxi, China;
    2. Department of Political and History, College of Ankang, Ankang 725000, Shaanxi, China
  • Received:2014-12-15 Revised:2015-03-02 Online:2015-07-25

Abstract: With the economic development of the human society, growth of population, researching mechanism of the effects the energy consumption and economic growth on carbon emissions intensity has become the focus on low carbon economy. Reducing carbon intensity is the inevitably request to realize low carbon economy development, while analyzing its influencing factors can be targeted to develop low carbon economy. Based on the data of energy consumption and GDP during 1989-2011, this paper has computed respectively the data of energy consumption structure and industrial structure diversification coefficients. VAR model is commonly used to predict the system with relevant time series and quantitative analyze dynamic impacts of stochastic disturbance on variable system. On the basis of reviews of studies at home and abroad, by analyzing the characteristics of industrial structure, energy consumption structure and carbon emissions intensity of Shaanxi Province, establishes an innovative VAR model and uses impulse responses function and variance decomposition methods to quantitatively reveal the mechanism of carbon emissions intensity response to industrial structure restructuring and energy consumption structure change. The results show as follows:(1)Economy in Shaanxi Province is in the development mode that heavy carbon emissions energy has a large proportion energy consumption structure and heavy carbon emissions industry is as the leading in industrial structure for a long time.(2)The effects changes of energy consumption structure and industrial structure in Shaanxi Province on carbon emissions intensity are relatively weak in the early times.(3)From a long-term perspective, the negative effects the improvement of two structures diversification on the increase of carbon emissions intensity has a long lasting inhibitory action. And the influence of the evolution of energy consumption structure is greater than industrial structure change.(4)To adjust of the energy consumption structure and optimize the industrial structure especially improve the proportions of the low carbon emissions industry and low carbon emissions energy is the key to improve carbon emissions intensity and carry out energy saving policies. At the end, this paper has proposed some innovative and targeted suggestions, such as accelerating the evolution of the energy structure, adjusting the industrial structure, developing new energy etc.

Key words: carbon emissions intensity, industrial structure, energy consumption structure, VAR model, impulse response function, Shaanxi Province

CLC Number: 

  • F124.5