上游不同开发情景对阿克苏河径流变化影响分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.05.17

Abstract

Abstract:

The Sary-Jaz River originates in Kyrgyzstan, and its water inflow accounts for about 44.3% of the total water resources of the Aksu River, which is very useful for sustainable economic and social development of the Aksu River Basin. In recent years, Kyrgyzstan has planned to build an interbasin water transfer project in the Sary-Jaz River Basin (upstream of the Aksu River), affecting the water resources of the Aksu River Basin. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis of the runoff trend of the Sary-Jaz River Basin based on the data from hydrological stations in the Aksu River Basin and investigate the impacts of water resources on the lower Aksu River under various development scenarios. Based on the results from 1958 to 2015, the annual runoff of the Sary-Jaz River exhibited a significant increase. There was also a big difference in the annual runoff, mainly concentrated in July and August. Seasonal runoff tended to increase significantly in spring and winter, with a slight increase in summer and autumn. Among the decades of change, 1958 to 1959 were relatively low water levels, 1990 to 1999 were relatively high water levels, and the rest were normal water periods. Therefore, the Kyrgyzstan interbasin water transfer project will significantly impact the Aksu River runoff in the future. Based on a seasonal analysis, the interbasin water transfer project will substantially impact the Aksu River runoff, directly reducing the lower Aksu River runoff. Based on an annual analysis, the interbasin water transfer project will directly reduce the lower Aksu River runoff. Also, as water transfer increases, the runoff of the Aksu River Basin will continue to decline. The results obtained from this study can provide a reference for the Chinese government to address the adverse impacts of the interbasin water transfer project on the Aksu River runoff.

Key words: runoff, the exploitation scenarios, hydraulic engineering, multiple linear regression model, Aksu River, Sary-Jaz River

CHEN Shuo,DUAN Weili,LI Xiaoyang. Runoff changes of the Aksu River under different exploitation scenarios in the upper river[J].Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(5): 1365-1372.

Figures/Tables 9

Tab. 1

Fig. 1

Tab. 2

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Tab. 5

Tab. 6

References 25

[1]	孙天瑶, 李雪梅, 许民, 等. 2000-2018年塔里木河流域植被覆盖时空格局[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020, 43(2):415-424.
	[ Sun Tianyao, Li Xuemei, Xu Min, et al. Spatial-temporal variations of vegetation coverage in the Tarim River Basin from 2000 to 2018[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(2):415-424. ]
[2]	冯克鹏, 田军仓, 沈晖. 基于K-means聚类分区的西北地区近半个世纪气温变化特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2019, 42(6):1239-1252.
	[ Feng Kepeng, Tian Juncang, Shen Hui. Temperature variation characteristics of northwest China based on K-means clustering partition in the past half century[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2019, 42(6):1239-1252. ]
[3]	王国亚, 沈永平, 苏宏超, 等. 1956-2006年阿克苏河径流变化及其对区域水资源安全的可能影响[J]. 冰川冻土, 2008, 30(4):562-568.
	[ Wang Guoya, Shen Yongping, Su Hongchao, et al. Runoff changes in Aksu River Basin during 1956-2006 and their impacts on water availability for Tarim River[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2008, 30(4):562-568. ]
[4]	郭利丹, 夏自强, 周海炜, 等. 阿克苏河境外水利工程开发对我国的潜在影响分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2015, 29(11):128-132.
	[ Guo Lidan, Xia Ziqiang, Zhou Haiwei, et al. Potential impacts of overseas hydraulic engineering development on the Aksu River Basin in China[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2015, 29(11):128-132. ]
[5]	Wang Y, Lei X, Wen X, et al. Effects of damming and climatic change on the eco-hydrological system: A case study in the Yalong River, southwest China[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2019, 105:663-674. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.07.039
[6]	Intralawan A, Wood D, Frankel R, et al. Tradeoff analysis between electricity generation and ecosystem services in the Lower Mekong Basin[J]. Ecosystem Services, 2018, 30:27-35. doi: 10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.01.007
[7]	Han Z, Long D, Fang Y, et al. Impacts of climate change and human activities on the flow regime of the dammed Lancang River in southwest China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2019, 570:96-105. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.12.048
[8]	Wang Y, Wang D, Lewis Q W, et al. A framework to assess the cumulative impacts of dams on hydrological regime: A case study of the Yangtze River[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2017, 31(17):3045-3055. doi: 10.1002/hyp.v31.17
[9]	Duan W, Zou S, Chen Y, et al. Sustainable water management for cross-border resources: The Balkhash Lake Basin of Central Asia, 1931-2015[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2020, 263:121614. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121614
[10]	Duan W, Chen Y, Zou S, et al. Managing the water-climate-food nexus for sustainable development in Turkmenistan[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019, 220:212-224. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.02.040
[11]	Song J, Ma L, Her Y, et al. Immediate influences of a large dam construction on local storm event patterns and weather variables: A case study of the Three Gorges Project[J]. Weather, 2020, 75(3):99-103. doi: 10.1002/wea.v75.3
[12]	Li Z, Shi X, Tang Q, et al. Partitioning the contributions of glacier melt and precipitation to the 1971-2010 runoff increases in a headwater basin of the Tarim River[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2020, 583:124579. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124579
[13]	Zhang Q, Chen Y, Li Z, et al. Glacier changes from 1975 to 2016 in the Aksu River Basin, central Tianshan Mountains[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(6):984-1000. doi: 10.1007/s11442-019-1640-z
[14]	穆振侠, 姜卉芳. 新疆阿克苏河流域昆马力克河积雪消融规律对气候变化的响应[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 34(6):1284-1292.
	[ Mu Zhenxia, Jiang Huifang. The response of snow cover ablation to climate change in the Kumalik River Basin, southern Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012, 34(6):1284-1292. ]
[15]	沈永平, 王国亚, 丁永建, 等. 1957-2006年天山萨雷扎兹库玛拉克河流域冰川物质平衡变化及其对河流水资源的影响[J]. 冰川冻土, 2009, 31(5):792-800.
	[ Shen Yongping, Wang Guoya, Ding Yongjian, et al. Changes in glacier mass balance in watershed of Sary Jaz-Kumarik Rivers of Tianshan Mountains in 1957-2006 and their impact on water resources and trend to end of the 21^th century[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2009, 31(5):792-800. ]
[16]	王志成, 方功焕, 张辉, 等. 基于高空与地面观测的阿克苏河流域气候水文要素变化分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(1):1-10.
	[ Wang Zhicheng, Fang Gonghuan, Zhang Hui, et al. Analysis of hydrometeorological variations based on the sounding and near-surface observations in Aksu River Basin[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14(1):1-10. ]
[17]	汪洋, 安沙舟. 干旱区内陆河流域典型灌区土地利用变化与耗水量研究[J]. 新疆农业科学, 2018, 55(2):362-370.
	[ Wang Yang, An Shazhou. Research on land use/cover change and water consumption in typical irrigation areas of inland river basin in arid region[J]. Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences, 2018, 55(2):362-370. ]
[18]	Meng F, Liu T, Wang H, et al. An alternative approach to overcome the limitation of HRUs in analyzing hydrological processes based on land use/cover change[J]. Water, 2018, 10(4):434. doi: 10.3390/w10040434
[19]	张恒. 阿克苏河上游水资源变化及其对下游地区生态环境和社会经济的影响[D]. 乌鲁木齐: 新疆农业大学, 2014.
	[ Zhang Heng. The change of water resources from upper stream Aksu River and its ecoenvironmental & socioeconomic impacts on the downstream area[D]. Urumqi: Xinjiang Agricultural University, 2014. ]
[20]	苏宏超. 中-吉首次开展萨雷扎兹河和麦兹巴赫湖联合科考活动[J]. 冰川冻土, 2008, 30(5):867.
	[ Su Hongchao. China and Kyrgyzstan conduct joint scientific research activities on the Sary-Jaz River and Merzbacher Lake[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2008, 30(5):867. ]
[21]	Yue S, Pilon P, Cavadias G. Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2002, 259(1):254-271. doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00594-7
[22]	王志成, 蒋军新, 方功焕, 等. 水资源约束下的阿克苏河流域适宜绿洲规模分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2019, 41(4):986-992.
	[ Wang Zhicheng, Jiang Junxin, Fang Gonghuan, et al. Analysis on the suitable scale of the Aksu Oasis under the limit of water resources[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2019, 41(4):986-992. ]
[23]	郭宏伟, 徐海量, 凌红波. 塔里木河流域枯水年生态调水方式及生态补偿研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2017, 32(10):1705-1717.
	[ Guo Hongwei, Xiu Hailiang, Ling Hongbo. Study of ecological water transfer mode and ecological compensation scheme of the Tarim River Basin in dry years[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(10):1705-1717. ]
[24]	Li B, Chen Y, Xiong H. Quantitatively evaluating the effects of climate factors on runoff change for Aksu River in northwestern China[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2016, 123(1):97-105. doi: 10.1007/s00704-014-1341-6
[25]	陈亚宁, 李稚, 方功焕, 等. 气候变化对中亚天山山区水资源影响研究[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(1):18-26. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201701002
	[ Chen Yaning, Li Zhi, Fang Gonghuan, et al. Impact of climate change on water resources in the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(1):18-26. ] doi: 10.11821/dlxb201701002

河流	长度/km	流域面积/km²	标准流量/m³∙s^-1	径流总量/10⁸ m³
奎柳河	50	2800	32.8	3.6
伊内尔切克河	50	1852	11.4	9.8
卡英德河	42	607	31.1	2.4
乌利乔利河	87	1467	7.5	5.5
阿克西牙克河	99	2290	12.3	3.9

水文站	河名	位置	集水面积/km²	多年平均流量/m³∙s^-1	资料年限
协合拉	库玛拉克河（萨雷扎兹河）	79°37′E,41°34′N	12887.30	153.44	1958—2015年
沙里桂兰克	托什干河（阿克塞河）	78°32′E,40°56′N	19335.51	89.04	1958—2015年
西大桥	阿克苏河	80°15′E,41°56′N	45025.29	199.82	1958—2015年

季节	时间序列	平均径流量/10⁸ m³	斜率	占年径流量的比例/%
春季（3—5月）	1958—2015年	4.37	0.014^*	9.01
夏季（6—8月）	1958—2015年	33.47	0.114	69.05
秋季（9—11月）	1958—2015年	8.55	0.020	17.43
冬季（12—2月）	1958—2015年	2.39	0.008^**	4.51

时段	平均径流 /10⁸m³	距平百分比/%	丰枯判别	径流最大年		径流最小年
时段	平均径流 /10⁸m³	距平百分比/%	丰枯判别	径流量/10⁸m³	年份	径流量/10⁸m³	年份
1958—1959年	41.59	-14	偏枯水	46.35	1959	36.84	1958
1960—1969年	45.47	-6	平水	53.08	1961	39.97	1964
1970—1979年	43.96	-9	平水	62.24	1978	36.37	1972
1980—1989年	47.52	-2	平水	51.95	1984	42.38	1989
1990—1999年	54.56	13	偏丰水	69.96	1997	41.83	1993
2000—2009年	52.46	8	平水	64.07	2002	36.98	2009
2010—2015年	47.61	-2	平水	55.38	2010	37.87	2014
多年平均径流	48.42	—	—	—	—	—	—

尺度	方程	R²	F值	P值
春季	Y=0.386+0.368X₁+0.882X₂	0.591	39.676	0.000
夏季	Y=-6.575+0.675X₁+0.990X₂	0.779	97.106	0.000
秋季	Y=1.004+0.897X₁+0.853X₂	0.654	51.882	0.000
冬季	Y=8.274-1.418X₁+0.222X₂	0.192	6.538	0.003
年	Y=-2.549+0.783X₁+0.897X₂	0.778	96.499	0.000

Runoff changes of the Aksu River under different exploitation scenarios in the upper river

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 9

References 25

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

萨雷扎兹河入境水量减少量/%	阿克苏河下游径流量变化/%
萨雷扎兹河入境水量减少量/%	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季	年
10	-6.25	-8.81	-5.75	-0.77	-6.89
15	-9.35	-13.20	-8.65	-1.16	-10.35
20	-12.44	-17.59	-11.54	-1.56	-13.81
25	-15.54	-21.97	-14.44	-1.95	-17.26
30	-18.64	-26.36	-17.34	-2.34	-20.72

[1]	TIAN Haowei, CHEN Fulong, LONG Aihua, LIU Jing, HAI Yang. Response and prediction of runoff to climate change in the headwaters of the Bortala River [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(9): 1432-1442.
[2]	WEI Yingnan, MA Long, SUN Bolin, ZHANG Jing. Reconstruction of historical runoff in the southern foothills of the Da Hinggan Ling Mountains based on Picea koraiensis [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(8): 1269-1278.
[3]	CHENG Shuo, LI Yanzhong, XING Yincong, YU Zhiguo, WANG Yuangang, HUANG Manjie. Simulation performance of remote sensing precipitation products on hydrological drought characteristics in the source region of the Yellow River [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(7): 1063-1072.
[4]	JIN Zizhen, QIN Xiang, ZHAO Qiudong, LI Yanzhao, LIU Yushuo, CHEN Jizu, WANG Lihui, WANG Qiang. Characteristics of runoff variation during ablation season in Laohugou watershed of western Qilian Mountains [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(2): 178-190.
[5]	LIANG Pengfei,XIN Huijuan,LI Zongxing,ZHANG Baijuan,GUI Juan,DUAN Ran,NAN Fusen,DINGZENG Yangping,YANG Shengmei. Runoff variation characteristics and influencing factors in the Heihe River Basin in the Qilian Mountains [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(5): 1460-1471.
[6]	CHENG Yi,WU Lanzhen,LIU Fenggui,SHEN Yanjun. Changes of runoff and precipitation in the upstream of Yellow River during the past 60 years [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(4): 1022-1031.
[7]	NIE Yan,GUO Yongrui,TAN Ying,HUANG Weidong,LIU Xinhua. Operation optimization of ecological water conveyance in Aksu River Basin based on ecological restoration [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(2): 325-332.
[8]	LIU Yu,GUAN Zilong,TIAN Jiyang,LIU Ronghua,GUAN Ronghao. Runoff change and its driving factors in Jinghe River Basin in recent 70 years [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(1): 17-26.
[9]	JIAO Ruoyu,SONG Xiaoyu,ZHAO Xinkai,LI Lanjun,FU Chong,ZHANG Zhixu,WANG Shaona. Runoff and sediment yield benefits and hydraulic characteristics of perennial ryegrass plantation canopy and root slope in the Loess Plateau [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(1): 208-218.
[10]	CAI Wenjing,CHEN Fulong,HE Chaofei,LUO Chengyan,LONG Aihua. Runoff prediction with LSTM-based combination model on time-frequency analysis [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(6): 1696-1706.
[11]	REN Cai,LONG Aihua,YU Jiawen,YIN Zhenliang,ZHANG Ji. Effects of climate and underlying surface changes on runoff of Yarkant River Source [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(5): 1373-1383.
[12]	YANG Zhenmin,LIU Xinping. Ecological carrying capacity monitoring and security pattern construction in the Aksu River Basin, Xinjiang [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(5): 1489-1499.
[13]	RAN Sihong,WANG Xiaolei,LUO Yi. Predicting climate change and its impact on runoff in snow-ice basin with multi-climate models [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(3): 807-818.
[14]	HUANG Chenlu,YANG Qinke. Runoff and sediment variation rules and differences in Wei River and Jing River Basins [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(2): 327-336.
[15]	NIU Zuirong,WANG Qiyou,SUN Dongyuan,ZHANG Rui,WU Xue,XING Yunpeng,ZHAN Shijie. Runoff variation characteristics of Taohe River Basin based on calculation of current runoff [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(1): 149-157.