多模式预测气候变化及其对雪冰流域径流的影响

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.03.23

Abstract

Abstract:

The snow-ice melt water in glacier-covered basins plays an essential role in regulating runoff. The impact of climate change on the snow-ice melting process and quantity change, river runoff process and quantity change, which is related to the glacier area in the basin. Using climate models’ meteorological data of CMIP5 driven watershed hydrological model, simulated runoff response to climate change in Tianshan areas (Kumaric River, Manas River, and Kuqa River, Xinjiang, China). The results show that with the temperature and precipitation increasing in the future, three river basins’ snow melt water is both increasing, but ice melt water changes affected by glacier coverage. The change of runoff was mainly affected by the increase in precipitation and the change in snow and ice melt water; the runoff increased by 5.8%-14.3% (Kuqa River), 2.9%-11.4% (Manas River), and 12.9%-47.1% (Kumaric River) under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). It was estimated that the variation range of runoff uncertainty was affected by ice melting. From the projected intra-annual distribution of runoff, the snow and ice melt of the three basins, the spring runoff of the river basins increased compared with the historical period due to the snow melt time ahead and snow melt volume. In the summer, the peak runoff of the Kuqa River and Manas River decreased due to ice melt water, whereas the peak value of runoff in Kumaric River increased. In addition, the estimated uncertainty range of summer runoff in the study basins in the summer season is significantly larger than those of other seasons.

Key words: climate change, climate model, hydrological model, glacier, runoff

RAN Sihong,WANG Xiaolei,LUO Yi. Predicting climate change and its impact on runoff in snow-ice basin with multi-climate models[J].Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(3): 807-818.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Brief overview of the 39 climate models in CMIP5"

模式名称	所属国家	分辨率	情景
ACCESSE1-3	澳大利亚	1.25°×1.88°	RCP4.5、RCP8.5
ACCESSE1-0	澳大利亚	1.25°×1.88°	RCP4.5、RCP8.6
BCC-CSM1-1	中国	2.80°×2.80°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
BCC-CSM1-1-m	中国	1.12°×1.25°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
BNU-ESM-3	中国	2.80°×2.80°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
CanESM2	加拿大	2.80°×2.80°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
CCSM4_4	美国	0.94°×1.25°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
CESM1-BGC	美国	0.94°×1.25°	RCP4.5、RCP8.5
CESM1-CAM5	美国	0.94°×1.25°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
CESM1-WACCM	美国	1.90°×2.50°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
CMCC-CESM	意大利	3.75°×3.75°	RCP8.5
CMCC-CM	意大利	0.75°×0.75°	RCP4.5、RCP8.5
CMCC-CMS	意大利	1.86°×1.875°	RCP4.5、RCP8.5
CNRMCM	法国	1.40°×1.40°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
CSIRO-Mk3-6-0	澳大利亚	1.88°×1.88°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
EC-EARTH	爱尔兰	1.12°×1.25°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
FGOALS-g2	中国	2.81°×2.81°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
FIO-ESM	中国	2.79°×2.81°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
GFDL-CM3	美国	2.00°×2.50°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
GFDL-ESM2G	美国	2.00°×2.50°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
GFDL-ESM2M	美国	2.00°×2.50°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
GISS-E2-H	美国	2.00°×2.50°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
GISS-E2-H-cc	美国	2.00°×2.50°	RCP4.5
GISS-E2-R	美国	2.00°×2.50°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
GISS-E2-R-cc	美国	2.00°×2.50°	RCP4.5
HadGEM2-AO	韩国	1.25°×1.88°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
HadGEM2-CC	英国	1.25°×1.88°	RCP4.5、RCP8.5
HadGEM2-ES	英国	1.25°×1.88°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
INMCM4	俄国	1.50°×2.00°	RCP4.5、RCP8.5
IPSL-CM5A-LR	法国	1.86°×3.75°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
IPSL-CM5A-MR	法国	1.25°×2.50°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
IPSL-CM5B-LR	法国	1.9°×3.75°	RCP4.5、RCP8.5
MIROC5	日本	1.40°×1.40°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
MIROC-ESM	日本	2.81°×2.81°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
MIROC-ESM-CHEM	日本	2.81°×2.81°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
MPI-ESM-LR	德国	1.86°×1.88°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
MPI-ESM-MR	德国	1.86°×1.88°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
MRI-CGCM3	日本	1.12°×1.13°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5
NorESM1-M	挪威	1.90°×2.50°	RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 5

Changes of temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and ice melt on averages of the 39 climate models for the two future periods relative to the historical period in the study area"

情景	变量	库车河				玛纳斯河				库玛拉克河
情景	变量	气温/℃	降水/%	冰融水/%	径流/%	气温/℃	降水/%	冰融水/%	径流/%	气温/℃	降水/%	冰融水/%	径流/%
RCP2.6（近期）	平均值	1.7	4.7	-5.7	6.4	1.5	3.7	25.0	10.1	1.7	3.3	111.8	28.3
	最大值	2.9	23.6	31.2	51.6	2.9	18.1	161.5	41.8	2.6	15.5	212.6	56.2
	最小值	0.6	-10.4	-40.7	-25.7	0.0	-9.7	-43.0	-8.8	0.6	-10.5	4.6	8.2
	标准差	0.6	7.4	15.1	15.0	0.7	5.9	61.9	13.9	0.5	6.1	52.3	13.4
RCP2.6（远期）	平均值	1.8	3.9	-64.6	7.8	1.7	4.7	-37.9	2.9	1.9	3.8	40.5	12.9
	最大值	3.6	28.0	-49.1	72.8	3.1	24.9	12.1	32.8	3.5	17.2	111.5	35.9
	最小值	-0.3	-11.3	-77.1	-23.1	-0.2	-13.2	-51.6	-18.1	-0.2	-9.1	-25.0	-11.1
	标准差	0.8	9.4	7.3	20.5	0.9	7.1	13.6	10.7	0.8	7.0	33.5	11.4
RCP4.5（近期）	平均值	1.6	4.4	-2.1	7.4	1.4	3.8	23.5	9.8	1.7	3.2	121.1	30.5
	最大值	2.7	21.9	26.4	43.2	2.4	17.7	156.5	39.7	2.7	12.9	226.8	62.9
	最小值	-1.3	-9.5	-27.9	-21.2	-0.1	-13.7	-49.0	-7.2	-1.3	-12.0	10.8	6.5
	标准差	0.7	7.0	12.1	14.0	0.6	6.3	58.6	12.6	0.7	5.8	52.2	11.7
RCP4.5（远期）	平均值	3.0	6.3	-60.0	12.4	2.5	5.8	-22.0	6.6	3.0	4.4	103.4	27.0
	最大值	4.9	29.2	-33.3	73.8	4.8	25.4	13.9	40.8	4.9	18.1	154.2	48.0
	最小值	1.1	-12.8	-80.3	-26.8	-0.2	-13.0	-60.8	-12.9	1.1	-12.8	24.0	6.4
	标准差	0.9	8.6	11.4	19.4	1.1	7.6	20.4	11.8	0.9	7.4	31.8	10.1
RCP8.5（近期）	平均值	2.0	4.2	3.4	5.8	1.6	3.7	34.5	11.4	2.0	3.1	142.9	34.8
	最大值	3.1	27.8	33.5	60.3	3.1	21.6	178.3	46.0	3.0	18.3	251.4	67.9
	最小值	0.7	-17.6	-21.3	-23.9	-0.4	-12.3	-47.1	-7.1	0.8	-19.7	33.5	6.8
	标准差	0.5	7.8	12.4	15.1	0.8	6.2	71.3	14.9	0.5	7.0	54.8	13.0
RCP8.5（远期）	平均值	5.2	6.0	-65.1	14.3	4.2	5.9	-0.3	9.8	5.2	2.5	208.2	47.1
	最大值	7.5	40.5	-28.2	120.4	7.7	39.1	77.8	64.7	7.4	27.3	260.0	78.0
	最小值	2.6	-24.7	-88.3	-37.3	-0.1	-19.4	-49.2	-17.4	2.5	-25.3	103.4	25.8
	标准差	1.2	12.6	15.0	29.1	1.9	10.4	37.8	16.4	1.2	10.9	32.5	11.8

Tab. 5

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

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河流	水文站	流域面积/km²	冰川情况		高程/m			气候特征
河流	水文站	流域面积/km²	面积/km²	覆盖率/%	平均	最低	最高	气温/°C	降水/mm
库玛拉克河	协和拉	12990	2725	21.0	3732	1434	7070	10.8	130.0
玛纳斯河	肯斯瓦特	5163	493	9.5	3252	846	5145	7.2	215.0
库车河	兰干	2912	15	0.5	2575	1271	4488	11.4	66.5

NSE	PBIAS/%	结果评价
NSE≤0.50	PBIAS>±25	不满意
0.50<NSE≤0.65	±15<PBIAS≤±25	满意
0.65<NSE≤0.75	±10<PBIAS≤±15	好
0.75<NSE≤1	PBIAS<±10	非常好

河流	水文站	月模拟				多年平均径流量/10⁸ m³
		NSE		PBIAS		率定期		验证期
		率定期	验证期	率定期	验证期	实测值	模拟值	实测值	模拟值
库玛拉克河	协和拉	0.66	0.85	1.55	4.08	45.50	44.80	47.30	50.00
玛纳斯河	肯斯瓦特	0.88	0.87	-0.65	-4.45	12.36	12.04	11.43	12.05
库车河	兰干	0.63	0.63	6.65	-2.08	2.97	3.03	3.59	3.50

Predicting climate change and its impact on runoff in snow-ice basin with multi-climate models

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