Abstract:

Based on six carbon sources in agricultural production, namely fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural films, diesel oil, plowing, and agricultural irrigation, this study applied the carbon emission coefficient method proposed by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to measure and analyze the spatiotemporal variation in agricultural carbon emissions at provincial and municipal scales in the Yellow River Basin of China from 2005 to 2020. The spatial heterogeneity of the influencing factors was assessed using a geographically weighted regression model. The conclusions are as follows: (1) From 2005 to 2020, agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin initially increased before declining, following an overall upward trend. Emissions rose from 4431.95×10⁴ t in 2005 to 4915.87×10⁴ t in 2020. Among the carbon sources, fertilizers and plowing were the primary contributors, accounting for more than 65% of total agricultural carbon emissions. Pesticide-related carbon emissions consistently remained the lowest. (2) In 2005, Shandong Province was the leading contributor to agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin, with emissions of 1241.68×10⁴ t. However, from 2010 to 2020, Henan Province became the largest emitter, with annual emissions ranging from 1360×10⁴ t to 1470×10⁴ t. Qinghai Province consistently recorded the lowest agricultural carbon emissions. In 2020, agricultural carbon emissions at the municipal scale exhibited a stepped decline from east to west in the Yellow River Basin. (3) The positive effect of agricultural production efficiency on agricultural carbon emissions was stronger in the southeast and northwest and lower in the northeast of the Yellow River Basin. The negative impact of agricultural structure was most pronounced in Shanxi Province. The highest positive impact of agricultural economic development was observed at the borders of Shaanxi Province, Shanxi Province, and Henan Province. The positive effect of the agricultural labor force was higher in the southeast and northwest and lower in the southwest.

Key words: Yellow River Basin, agricultural carbon emissions, spatial-temporal variation, influencing factors, geographically weighted regression model