黄河流域城市紧凑度对碳排放绩效的影响

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Impact of urban compactness on carbon emission performance in the Yellow River Basin

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doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.363

Abstract:

Under the framework of China’s “double carbon” goal, moderately compact urban development is considered the optimal approach for achieving green, low-carbon, and high-quality growth in the Yellow River Basin. Considering 77 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin as examples, this study constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system across several dimensions such as population, economy, and society. Employing the entropy weight technique, comprehensive weighted summation model, kernel density estimation, bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis, spatiotemporal weighted regression model, and a geographical detector, this study analyzed the effects and mechanisms of urban compactness on carbon emission performance in the Yellow River Basin from 2005 to 2021. The results are as follows. (1) From 2005 to 2021, both the urban compactness and carbon emission performance in the Yellow River Basin slightly increased. Urban compactness exhibited a spatial distribution pattern of “lower in the upper and middle reaches, and higher in the lower reaches”, whereas carbon emission performance exhibited a pattern of “lower in the middle reaches, and higher in the upper and lower reaches”. (2) The correlation between urban compactness and carbon emission performance varied significantly across time and space in the Yellow River Basin from 2005 to 2021. Most cities demonstrated a negative spatial correlation, with the number of such cities increasing over time in the Yellow River Basin. Cities of the Yellow River Basin with positive spatial correlation between urban compactness and carbon emission performance were mostly located in the middle and lower reaches. (3) The negative impacts of land use compactness and population compactness on carbon emission performance were relatively obvious in the Yellow River Basin from 2005 to 2021. The negative impact of land use compactness weakened. For population compactness, the negative impact increased in the mid-upper reaches regions but weakened in the downstream regions. The economic compactness and transportation compactness mainly had positive impacts on carbon emission performance, yet the areas with negative impacts of transportation compactness increased both in the upstream and downstream regions. (4) The influence of urban compactness on the carbon emission performance was enhanced when interacting with other socioeconomic factors in the Yellow River Basin from 2005 to 2021. Synergies among various factors considerably affected the carbon emission performance. The greatest combined effect was observed between the economic compactness and energy consumption levels. Thus, to promote coordinated development in the Yellow River Basin, differentiated urban compact development strategies must be implemented based on regional conditions. Further, efforts should focus on the optimization of industrial structures, improvement of urbanization quality, fostering of low-carbon technology innovation, and dynamic adjustments of urban compactness. These measures are aimed at promoting balanced economic growth, social welfare, and low-carbon development across the entire basin.

Key words: urban compactness, carbon emission performance, effects, interactive effect, the Yellow River Basin

CHENG Lanhua, YANG Xianming, WU Xinyan. Impact of urban compactness on carbon emission performance in the Yellow River Basin[J].Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(5): 838-853.

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判据	交互作用类型
$q x 1 ⋂ x 2 < M i n q x 1, q x 2$	非线性减弱
$M i n q x 1, q x 2 < q x 1 ⋂ x 2 < M a x q x 1, q x 2$	单因子非线性减弱
$q x 1 ⋂ x 2 > M a x q x 1, q x 2$	双因子增强
$q x 1 ⋂ x 2 = q x 1 + q x 2$	独立
$q x 1 ⋂ x 2 > q x 1 + q x 2$	非线性增强

目标层	一级指标（权重）	二级指标（权重）	二级指标说明	单位	属性
城市紧凑度	土地利用紧凑度（0.29）	市区开发利用强度（0.19）	建成区面积/市区面积	%	+
		建设用地占比（0.26）	建设用地面积/建成区面积	%	+
		人均建设用地（0.22）	建设用地面积/市区人口	hm²·人^-1	+
		居住用地占比（0.32）	居住用地面积/建设用地面积	%	+
	人口紧凑度（0.19）	市区人口密度（0.31）	市区人口/市区面积	人·km^-2	+
		居住人口密度（0.41）	市区人口/居住用地面积	人·km^-2	+
		人口就业密度（0.28）	单位从业人员/市区面积	人·km^-2	+
	经济紧凑度（0.21）	人口经济密度（0.31）	GDP/市区人口	元·人^-1	+
		GDP密度（0.24）	GDP/市区面积	元·hm^-2	+
		商业活力（0.46）	社会消费品零售总额/市区人口	元·人^-1	+
	交通紧凑度（0.32）	道路面积占比（0.21）	市区道路面积/市区面积	%	+
		人均拥有道路面积（0.22）	市区道路面积/市区人口	m²·人^-1	+
		道路使用率（0.32）	市区道路长度/市区道路面积	m·hm^-2	+
		万人拥有出租车数量（0.25）	年末出租车数量/市区人口	辆	+

目标层	一级指标（权重）	二级指标（权重）	二级指标说明	单位	属性
人类发展指数	医疗水平（0.34）	每万人执业或助理医师数（0.45）	执业或助理医师数/市区人口	人	+
	医疗水平（0.34）	每万人医院床位数（0.55）	医院床位数/市区人口	张	+
	教育水平（0.28）	每万人在校生数（0.43）	（普通高等学校在校学生数+普通中学在校学生数+普通小学在校学生数）/市区人口	人	+
	教育水平（0.28）	每万人专任教师数（0.57）	（普通高等学校专任教师数+普通中学专任教师数+普通小学专任教师数）/市区人口	人	+
	收入水平（0.38）	在岗职工平均工资（0.46）	在岗职工平均工资	元	+
	收入水平（0.38）	城镇居民人均可支配收入（0.54）	城镇居民人均可支配收入	元	+

模型	OLS模型	GWR模型	GTWR模型
残差平方和（RSS）	7.03	2.44	2.02
赤池信息准则（AICc）	-268.26	-422.83	-343.53
拟合优度（R²）	0.40	0.79	0.83
调整后R²	-	0.78	0.82

变量	X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆	X₇	X₈	X₉	X₁₀
q值	0.02	0.04	0.08	0.02	0.32	0.03	0.01	0.05	0.17	0.06
解释力排序	9	6	3	8	1	7	10	5	2	4

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