2000—2020年黄河流域土地生态质量及其变化趋势预测

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.634

Abstract

Abstract:

This paper constructs an index system for evaluating land ecological quality in the Yellow River Basin in terms of ecological basis, ecological structures, ecological benefits, ecological stresses, and evaluates the land ecological quality of the basin from 2000 to 2020 by using the ideal point method. On this basis, we combined the Slope trend prediction model and F significance test model to predict the change trends of land ecological quality in the basin in 2025, and analyzed the clustering characteristics of the predicted change trends. The results show that: (1) The land ecological quality in the southeastern and southwestern parts of the Yellow River Basin is higher than that in the northeastern and northwestern parts. (2) The overall land ecological quality of the Yellow River Basin is low from 2000 to 2020, but shows a gradual improvement from the southeast to the northwest. (3) The quality of the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin, where the background land ecological quality is poor, has much room for improvement. (4) Land ecological quality in the Yellow River Basin may rise in 2025 is mainly concentrated in the eastern and central part of the Gansu section and the southern part of the Ningxia section of the basin, located in the Loess Plateau ecological function protection zone. The cases where the ecological quality of land is likely to decline are partly clustered in the southwestern part of the Qinghai section of the basin in the Yellow River source ecological function reserve, and partly in the northwestern part of the Inner Mongolia section of the basin. The northwestern part of the Yellow River Basin should continue to promote ecological treatment, laying the ecological foundation for regional high-quality development, and the southeastern part of the basin should continue to promote economic development while strengthening ecological protection and monitoring, so as to achieve the benign development of mutual promotion of economy and ecology.

Key words: land ecological quality, ideal point method, Slope trend prediction model, the Yellow River Basin

LIU Jiaqi, ZHOU Luhong, XI Xiaoya. Land ecological quality and its change trend prediction in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020[J].Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(10): 1654-1662.

Figures/Tables 6

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References 23

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目标层	准则层（权重）	指标层（权重）	指标性质
黄河流域土地生态质量评价	生态本底（0.375）	降水量（0.0727）	+
		温度（0.1111）	+
		地形起伏（0.0174）	-
		NDVI（0.0869）	+
		NPP（0.0869）	+
	生态结构（0.375）	林地比例（0.1734）	+
		草地比例（0.0732）	+
		建设用地比例（0.0732）	-
		水体比例（0.0276）	+
		湿地比例（0.0276）	+
	生态效益（0.125）	生态服务价值（0.125）	+
	生态胁迫（0.125）	人口密度（0.075）	-
		夜间灯光（0.025）	-
		GDP（0.025）	-

2000年土地生态质量级别	2005年土地生态质量级别								转移总和	质量提升	质量降低
2000年土地生态质量级别	高	较高		中等		较低		低	转移总和	质量提升	质量降低
高	83.51	5.00		6.93		4.33		0.23	16.49	-	16.49
较高	16.88	57.79		14.85		6.66		3.82	42.21	16.88	25.33
中等	3.00	5.28		77.51		10.06		4.15	22.49	8.28	14.21
较低	1.07	1.82		16.56		70.85		9.70	29.15	19.45	9.70
低	0.09	2.01		7.66		21.46		68.78	31.22	31.22	-
2005年土地生态质量级别	2010年土地生态质量级别								转移总和	质量提升	质量降低
2005年土地生态质量级别	高		较高		中等		较低	低	转移总和	质量提升	质量降低
高	96.35		3.59		0.03		0.01	0.02	3.65	-	3.65
较高	10.96		86.49		2.28		0.21	0.06	13.51	10.96	2.55
中等	0.03		4.17		92.33		3.41	0.06	7.67	4.20	3.47
较低	0.03		0.07		14.50		83.96	1.44	16.04	14.60	1.44
低	0.00		0.09		0.24		18.23	81.44	18.56	18.56	-
2010年土地生态质量级别	2015年土地生态质量级别								转移总和	质量提升	质量降低
2010年土地生态质量级别	高		较高		中等		较低	低	转移总和	质量提升	质量降低
高	96.83		3.08		0.05		0.01	0.03	3.17	-	3.17
较高	19.02		78.87		1.73		0.13	0.25	21.13	19.02	2.11
中等	0.08		9.60		87.41		2.66	0.25	12.59	9.68	2.91
较低	0.02		0.67		28.08		69.76	1.47	30.24	28.77	1.47
低	0.00		0.25		0.67		26.47	72.61	27.39	27.39	-
2015年土地生态质量级别	2020年土地生态质量级别								转移总和	质量提升	质量降低
2015年土地生态质量级别	高		较高		中等		较低	低	转移总和	质量提升	质量降低
高	50.79		13.51		23.99		10.48	1.23	49.21	-	49.21
较高	14.55		31.42		37.12		12.75	4.16	68.58	14.55	54.03
中等	6.44		8.54		52.00		26.39	6.63	48.00	14.98	33.02
较低	2.42		2.94		27.32		52.85	14.47	47.15	32.68	14.47
低	0.46		2.28		18.03		27.38	51.85	48.15	48.15	-

Land ecological quality and its change trend prediction in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020

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