青藏高原东北部区域持续性低温事件的特征及影响因子分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.04.02

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on daily minimum temperature data from 66 observation stations in winter in the northeast region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China from 1960 to 2020 and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis product, this paper uses the percentile method to determine persistent low-temperature events, proposes criteria for low-temperature days and regional persistent low-temperature events, and discusses the extreme winter climate index and the relevance of incidents at low-temperature. The results show the following. (1) Regional persistent low-temperature events were primarily concentrated in the eastern agricultural area. (2) The differences between different types of low-temperature event circulations are primarily manifested in the latitudes of the positive and negative anomaly centers of the 500-hPa height field and the southward extension strength of the 700-hPa north wind component. (3) The polar vortex index, plateau region index, Indian-Burma Trough, Arctic Oscillation index, and plateau heating field reach 15% (or 85%) extreme thresholds, and the percentage occurrence of regional extreme low-temperature events exceeds 60%. Therefore, certain signals can be used for diagnosing and predicting the RELTE from index anomalies. In the context of climate warming, the distribution characteristics of persistent extreme low-temperature events in the northeast area of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and their correlation with extreme climate indexes were studied to provide references for agricultural and animal husbandry production, meteorological disaster early warning, and the further improvement of the ecological meteorological service guarantee capacity in this region.

Key words: regional persistent low temperature event, circulation anomaly, climate index, northeast of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

ZHANG Tiaofeng,YANG Zhaoming,WEN Tingting,LAI Xiaoling,MA Youxuan. Characteristics and influencing factors of persistent low temperature events in northeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J].Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(4): 897-905.

Figures/Tables 7

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Three indicators representing regional extreme low temperature events in winter and their relationship with the outliers of various circulation indexes in 1961—2019"

开始日期	持续天数	极涡面积	极涡强度	东亚槽位置	东亚槽强度	高原高度场	印缅槽	北极涛动	西太平洋遥相关型指数	NINO 3.4海温	高原加热场
1961-02-11	7	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	0	1	0	0
1961-12-05	8	0	-1	0	1	1	1	0	-1	0	0	-1	0
1962-11-25	11	1	-1	0	-1	1	1	1	-1	0	0	-1	1
1962-12-29	19	0	0	0	-1	1	1	-1	1	0	1	1	-1
1963-10-12	8	1	0	1	0	1	1	-1	1	0	0	1	1
1963-12-22	5	0	1	0	0	1	1	1	-1	-1	1	-1	-1
1964-01-27	7	0	1	-1	0	1	0	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	-1
1965-10-12	7	1	1	-1	0	0	1	-1	1	-1	0	1	-1
1967-01-01	5	-1	1	-1	-1	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0
1967-11-28	6	-1	-1	-1	-1	1	1	-1	0	0	1	-1	1
1968-02-06	5	0	-1	-1	0	1	1	1	-1	0	1	-1	1
1968-02-17	5	0	-1	-1	0	1	1	1	-1	0	1	-1	1
1969-11-29	6	-1	-1	1	-1	0	0	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	1
1971-01-29	11	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	-1	-1
1972-10-20	9	0	1	1	-1	1	-1	-1	0	-1	-1	1	1
1972-11-15	6	0	0	-1	-1	1	0	0	-1	-1	-1	0	0
1975-12-08	15	0	-1	0	0	1	1	-1	-1	1	-1	-1	1
1976-11-16	12	1	1	0	-1	0	0	0	0	0	-1	-1	1
1979-11-17	8	-1	0	1	-1	1	-1	-1	1	-1	-1	-1	0
1980-02-02	6	0	-1	-1	-1	0	0	0	0	0	-1	-1	1
1981-10-21	5	0	-1	0	-1	1	-1	1	-1	0	-1	-1	1
1981-12-18	5	-1	0	0	1	0	-1	0	0	0	0	1	0
1982-11-28	6	0	-1	-1	0	0	0	-1	0	-1	0	0	-1
1991-12-27	8	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	-1	1	-1	-1
1992-11-08	5	-1	0	0	-1	-1	1	-1	1	0	-1	-1	-1
1993-01-14	14	0	0	-1	1	0	0	-1	0	-1	0	0	0
1995-01-02	6	-1	-1	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	-1	0	0
1996-12-09	5	-1	1	0	-1	0	0	1	-1	0	-1	1	-1
2002-01-13	5	-1	0	0	1	-1	0	0	0	0	-1	1	-1
2004-02-03	6	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	0	-1	1	1	-1
2008-01-26	14	1	-1	-1	-1	1	-1	-1	0	1	-1	0	1
2009-11-16	7	-1	-1	1	0	0	-1	-1	1	-1	0	-1	0
(正异常态+正常态)/ 正异常态		21/5	18/8	20/5	17/4	29/17	25/14	16/6	21/6	19/3	16/8	16/8	21/12

Tab. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Tab. 2

References 32

[1]	韩国军, 王玉兰, 房世波. 近50年青藏高原气候变化及其对农牧业的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2011, 33(10):1969-1975.
	[ Han Guojun, Wang Yulan, Fang Shibo. Climate change over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its impacts on local agriculture and animal husbandry in the last 50 years[J]. Resources Science, 2011, 33(10):1969-1975. ]
[2]	张人禾, 苏凤阁, 江志红, 等. 青藏高原21世纪气候和环境变化预估研究进展[J]. 科学通报, 2015, 60(32):3036-3047.
	[ Zhang Renhe, Su Fengge, Jiang Zhihong, et al. An overview of projected climate and environmental changes across the Tibetan Plateau in the 21st century[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2015, 60(32):3036-3047. ]
[3]	Dong B W, Sutton R T, Chen Wei, et al. Abrupt summer warming and changes in temperature extremes over northeast Asia since the mid-1990s: Drivers and physical processes[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2016, 33(9):1005-1023. doi: 10.1007/s00376-016-5247-3
[4]	赵雪雁, 雒丽, 王亚茹, 等. 1963—2012年青藏高原东缘极端气温变化特征及趋势[J]. 资源科学, 2014, 36(10):2113-2122.
	[ Zhao Xueyan, Luo Li, Wang Yaru, et al. Extreme temperature events in eastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1963 to 2012[J]. Resources Science, 2014, 36(10):2113-2122. ]
[5]	冯晓莉, 刘彩红, 祁栋林. 青海省汛期极端强降水特征及影响[J]. 中国农学通报, 2016, 32(5):125-130.
	[ Feng Xiaoli, Liu Caihong, Qi Donglin. Characteristics of extreme heavy precipitation rvents and their impacts in Qinghai Province[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2016, 32(5):125-130. ]
[6]	黄浩, 张勃, 黄涛, 等. 近30 a甘肃省河东地区极端气温指数时空变化特征及趋势预测[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020, 43(2):319-328.
	[ Huang Hao, Zhang Bo, Huang Tao, et al. Quantifying and predicting spatial and temporal variations in extreme temperatures since 1990 in Gansu Province, China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(2):319-328. ]
[7]	杨金虎, 靳荣, 刘晓云, 等. 西北地区东部汛期降水季节内分布特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2017, 40(5):942-950.
	[ Yang Jinhu, Jin Rong, Liu Xiaoyun, et al. Inter-seasonal distribution pattern of rainy season precipitation in the east region of northwest China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2017, 40(5):942-950. ]
[8]	王晓娟, 沈柏竹, 龚志强, 等. 中国冬季区域性极端低温事件分类及其与气候指数极端性的联系[J]. 物理学报, 2013, 62(22):1-11.
	[ Wang Xiaojuan, Shen Baizhu, Gong Zhiqiang, et al. The classification of winter regional extreme low temperature events in China and their corresponding relationship to climatic indices extreme anomaly[J]. Acta Physica Sinica, 2013, 62(22):1-11. ]
[9]	刘宪锋, 朱秀芳, 潘耀忠, 等. 近53年内蒙古寒潮时空变化特征及其影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2014, 69(7):1013-1024. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201407013
	[ Liu Xianfeng, Zhu Xiufang, Pan Yaozhong, et al. The spatial-temporal changes of cold surge in Inner Mongolia during recent 53 years[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(7):1013-1024. ] doi: 10.11821/dlxb201407013
[10]	孙华, 何茂萍, 胡明成. 全球变化背景下气候变暖对中国农业生产的影响[J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 2015, 36(7):51-57.
	[ Sun Hua, He Maoping, Hu Mingcheng. Impact of global climatic warming on agricultural production in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2015, 36(7):51-57. ]
[11]	杨贵名, 毛冬艳, 孔期. “低温雨雪冰冻”天气过程锋区特征分析[J]. 气象学报, 2009, 67(4):652-665.
	[ Yang Guiming, Mao Dongyan, Kong Qi. Analysis of the frontal characteristics of the cryogenic freezing rain and snow weather[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2009, 67(4):652-665. ]
[12]	Bao Q, Yang J, Liu Y, et al. Roles of anomalous Tibetan Plateau warming on the severe 2008 winter storm in central-southern China[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2010, 138(6):2375-2384. doi: 10.1175/2009MWR2950.1
[13]	Gao H. China’s snow disaster in 2008, who is the principal player?[J]. International Journal Climatology, 2009, 29(14):2191-2196. doi: 10.1002/joc.v29:14
[14]	龚志强, 王晓娟, 崔冬林, 等. 区域性极端低温事件的识别及其变化特征[J]. 应用气象学报, 2012, 23(2):195-204.
	[ Gong Zhiqiang, Wang Xiaojuan, Cui Donglin, et al. The identification and changing characteristics of regional low temperature extreme events[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2012, 23(2):195-204. ]
[15]	杨莲梅, 曾勇, 刘雯. 北疆冬季持续性低温事件特征及大气环流异常分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2016, 12(6):508-518.
	[ Yang Lianmei, Zeng Yong, Liu Wen. Characteristics of persistent low temperature events and analysis of atmospheric circulation anomaly in winter in northern Xinjiang[J]. Climate Change Research, 2016, 12(6):508-518. ]
[16]	陈官军, 魏凤英, 姚文清, 等. 基于低频振荡信号的中国南方冬半年持续性低温指数延伸期预报试验[J]. 气象学报, 2017, 75(3):400-414.
	[ Chen Guanjun, Wei Fengying, Yao Wenqing, et al. Extended range forecast experiments of persistent winter low temperature indexes based on intra-seasonal oscillation over southern China[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2017, 75(3):400-414. ]
[17]	琚建华, 任菊章, 吕俊梅. 北极涛动年代际变化对东亚北部冬季气温增暖的影响[J]. 高原气象, 2004, 23(4):429-434.
	[ Ju Jianhua, Ren Juzhang, Lyu Junmei. Effect of interdecadal variation of Arctic Oscillation on emperature increasing in north of east Asian winter[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2004, 23(4):429-434. ]
[18]	龚道溢, 王绍武. 近百年来北极涛动对中国气候的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2003, 58(4):559-568.
	[ Gong Daoyi, Wang Shaowu. Influence of Arctic Oscillation on winter over China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(4):559-568. ]
[19]	丁文魁, 杨晓玲, 汪作成, 等. 河西走廊东部低温事件变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(1):17-24.
	[ Ding Wenkui, Yang Xiaoling, Wang Zuocheng, et al. Variation characteristics of low temperature events in east of Hexi Corridor[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2018, 41(1):17-24. ]
[20]	沈柏竹, 廉毅, 张世轩, 等. 北极涛动、极涡活动异常对北半球欧亚大陆冬季气温的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2012, 8(6):434-439.
	[ Shen Baizhu, Lian Yi, Zhang Shixuan, et al. Impacts of Arctic Oscillation and polar vortex anomalies on winter temperature over Eurasian continent[J]. Climate Change Research, 2012, 8(6):434-439. ]
[21]	时盛博, 张调风, 马占良, 等. 青藏高原东北部冷空气次数和强度变化的特征研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2019, 42(2):232-243.
	[ Shi Shengbo, Zhang Tiaofeng, Ma Zhanliang, et al. Variation characteristics of cold air processes in northeastern Tibetan Plateau[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2019, 42(2):232-243. ]
[22]	Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J]. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 1996, 77(3):437-471. doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2
[23]	申红艳, 王冀, 马明亮, 等. 青海高原冬季持续低温集中程度的气候特征及其成因[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 34(6):1394-1402.
	[ Shen Hongyan, Wang Ji, Ma Mingliang, et al. Winter persistence low temperature concentration degree over the Qinghai Plateau: Climatic features and causes[J]. Journal of Glaclology and Geocryology, 2012, 34(6):1394-1402. ]
[24]	Zhang Z J, Qian W H. Identifying regional prolonged low temperature events in China[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2011, 28(2):338-351. doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-0048-6
[25]	钱维宏. 中期-延伸期天气预报原理[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2012: 265-279.
	[ Qian Weihong. Principles of medium to extended range weather forecasts[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2012: 265-279. ]
[26]	何溪澄, 李巧萍, 丁一汇, 等. ENSO暖冷事件下东亚冬季风的区域气候模拟[J]. 气象学报, 2007, 65(1):18-28.
	[ He Xicheng, Li Qiaoping, Ding Yihui, et al. Numerical simulation of east Asian winter monsoon with ENSO episodes using a regional climate model[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2007, 65(1):18-28. ]
[27]	陈文, 丁硕毅, 冯娟, 等. 不同类型ENSO对东亚季风的影响和机理研究进展[J]. 大气科学, 2018, 42(3):640-655.
	[ Chen Wen, Ding Shuoyi, Feng Juan, et al. Progress in the study of impacts of different types of ENSO on the east Asian monsoon and their mechanisms[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2018, 42(3):640-655. ]
[28]	陈官军, 魏凤英, 姚文清, 等. 基于低频振荡信号的中国南方冬半年持续性低温指数延伸期预报试验[J]. 气象学报, 2017, 75(3):400-414.
	[ Chen Guanjun, Wei Fengying, Yao Wenqing, et al. Extended range forecast experiments of persistent winter low temperature indexes based on intra-seasonal oscillation over southern China[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2017, 75(3):400-414. ]
[29]	黄寿波. 我国地形小气候研究概况与展望[J]. 地理研究, 1986, 5(2):90-101. doi: 10.11821/yj1986020011
	[ Huang Shoubo. Advance in the investigation of the topographical microclimate in China[J]. Geographical Research, 1986, 5(2):90-101. ] doi: 10.11821/yj1986020011
[30]	吕炯. 地形与霜冻[J]. 地理学报, 1956, 22(2):149-158. doi: 10.11821/xb195602002
	[ Lyu Jiong. Topograpical features and frost damage[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 1956, 22(2):149-158. ] doi: 10.11821/xb195602002
[31]	胡芩, 姜大膀, 范广洲. CMIP5全球气候模式对青藏高原地区气候模拟能力评估[J]. 大气科学, 2014, 38(5):924-938.
	[ Hu Qin, Jiang Dabang, Fan Guangzhou. Evaluation of CMIP5 models over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2014, 38(5):924-938. ]
[32]	刘宪锋, 朱秀芳, 潘耀忠, 等. 近53年内蒙古寒潮时空变化特征及其影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2014, 69(7):1013-1024. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201407013
	[ Liu Xianfeng, Zhu Xiufang, Pan Yaozhong, et al. The spatial-temporal changes of cold surge in Inner Mongolia during recent 53 years[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(7):1013-1024. ] doi: 10.11821/dlxb201407013

极涡强度		高原高度场		印缅槽		北极涛动（AO）指数		高原加热场
达到阈值年份	对应事件	达到阈值年份	对应事件	达到阈值年份	对应事件	达到阈值年份	对应事件	达到阈值年份	对应事件
1965	√	1961	√	1961	√	1962	√	1961	√
1968	√	1962	√	1962	√	1965	√	1962	√
1970		1963	√	1964	√	1968	√	1963	√
1971	√	1967	√	1967	√	1969	√	1965	√
1972	√	1968	√	1970		1976	√	1967	√
1977		1970		1971	√	1984		2007
1978		1973		1973		1985		2011
1993	√	1974		1974		2000		2012
1996	√	1975	√	1975	√	2009	√	-

Characteristics and influencing factors of persistent low temperature events in northeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 7

References 32

Related Articles 1

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0