中国和不丹跨境流域冰湖变化特征及驱动因素

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2025.257

Abstract

Abstract:

Glacial lakes are valuable freshwater resources, important indicators of climate change, and potential incubators of various natural hazards. Using Landsat remote sensing imagery, glacial lake boundaries in the transboundary basins between China and Bhutan were visually interpreted for five periods: 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2023. By integrating climatic, glaciological, and topographic data, this study investigates the driving factors underlying changes in both the area and number of glacial lakes. The results indicate the following: (1) From 1990 to 2023, the total number of glacial lakes in the study area increased from 1943 to 2413, while the total lake area expanded from 143.25 km² to 165.71 km². Among the basins, the Luozhaqu-Kulu River Basin experienced the largest increase in glacial lake area, expanding by 6.24 km², whereas the Sankoxhi River Basin exhibited the greatest increase in lake number, with 133 newly formed lakes. (2) Glacial lakes showing substantial area expansion were primarily within the size range of 0.1-0.5 km², whereas newly formed lakes were predominantly smaller than 0.02 km². The most pronounced changes in glacial lake distribution occurred at elevations of 5100-5200 m. (3) Optimal-parameter geographic detector analysis indicates that annual mean temperature and elevation are the dominant drivers of increases in glacial lake number, whereas glacier volume and elevation primarily control glacial lake area expansion. Overall, this study clarifies the combined effects of climate, glacier dynamics, and topography on glacial lake evolution and provides a scientific basis for assessing glacial lake outburst flood risks in transboundary river basins.

Key words: glacial lake changes, remote sensing, climate change, transboundary basin, China, Bhutan

CHEN Bing, WANG Futao, WANG Shixin, GU Xingguang, ZHU Jinfeng. Characteristics and driving factors of glacial lake changes in transboundary basins between China and Bhutan[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(3): 496-507.

Figures/Tables 11

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References 43

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年份	冰湖总数量变化/个	冰湖总面积变化/km²
1990—2000	272	10.41
2000—2010	28	4.12
2010—2020	124	6.64
2020—2023	46	1.29

因变量	驱动因素	解释力（q值）
冰湖面积变化量	平均海拔	0.48
	年平均气温变化量	0.51^*
	年降水变化量	0.39
	冰川物质平衡累积量	0.67^**
	冰川体积变化量	0.64^**
	冰川融水径流变化量	0.72^**
冰湖数量变化量	平均海拔	0.63^**
	年平均气温变化量	0.43
	年降水变化量	0.37
	冰川物质平衡累积量	0.74^**
	冰川体积变化量	0.74^**
	冰川融水径流变化量	0.75^**

Characteristics and driving factors of glacial lake changes in transboundary basins between China and Bhutan

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年份	冰湖总数量/个	冰湖总面积/km²
1990	1943	143.25
2000	2215	153.66
2010	2243	157.78
2020	2367	164.42
2023	2413	165.71

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