甘肃省绿色发展效率时空演化与驱动因素研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2022.176

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

提升绿色发展效率对甘肃省生态文明建设、高质量发展至关重要。采用Super-SBM模型、热点分析和地理探测器分析2005—2019年甘肃省14个市州绿色发展效率时空演化特征及其驱动因素。结果表明：（1）时序上，绿色发展效率总体呈“M”型波动趋势，区域相对差异亦表现出相应的波动趋势。（2）空间上，绿色发展效率空间分异性显著，南北方向梯度差明显大于东西方向。空间集聚程度弱，以低热点区、中热点区和低冷点区为主，存在俱乐部收敛特征。（3）市场化水平、创新能力、政府调控、城镇化水平是绿色发展效率空间分异的主导因子。甘肃省绿色发展效率是多因子交互作用的结果。研究结果在丰富城市绿色发展指标体系和研究案例的同时，对甘肃省及其他欠发达地区绿色转型发展提供借鉴。

关键词: 绿色发展效率, Super-SBM模型, 地理探测器, 甘肃省

Abstract:

Improving the green development efficiency (GDE) is crucial for constructing ecological civilization and high-quality development in Gansu Province, China. Based on the Super-SBM model, hotspot analysis and the geographic detector model, Gansu Province from 2005 to 2019 was analyzed for the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of the GDE in 14 cities and prefectures. The following results are obtained: (1) Temporally, the GDE shows a pattern of “M”-shaped fluctuated growth, and the regional relative difference demonstrates a corresponding trend of fluctuation. (2) Spatially, the spatial heterogeneity of the GDE is significant, and the gradient difference in the north-south direction is significantly greater than that in the east-west direction. However, the degree of spatial agglomeration of the GDE is weak, dominated by low hot-spots, middle hot-spots, and low cold-spots. Additionally, the GDE displays a characteristic of spatial club convergence. (3) Marketization level, innovation ability, government regulation, and urbanization level are the driving factors of GDE. The GDE in Gansu Province is the result of the multifactor interaction. The results not only enrich the index system and case study of GDE but also can provide references for the green transformation development of Gansu Province and other less developed areas.

Key words: green development efficiency, the Super-SBM model, the geographic detector model, Gansu Province

鹿晨昱,黄萍,张彤,刘小莞,成薇. 甘肃省绿色发展效率时空演化与驱动因素研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(2): 305-315.

LU Chenyu,HUANG Ping,ZHANG Tong,LIU Xiaowan,CHENG Wei. Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of the green development efficiency in Gansu Province[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(2): 305-315.

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	一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	单位
投入	资本要素	-	全社会固定资产投资总额	10⁸元
	劳动力要素	单位从业人数	年末实际就业人员数	10⁴人
	技术要素	-	R&D人员全时当量	人·a^-1
	资源要素	水、土、能源消费总量	建成区面积	km²
			供水总量	10⁴m³
			全社会用电量	10⁴kWh
			人工和天然气供气量	10⁴m³
			液化石油气供应量	t
产出	期望产出	经济效益	地区实际GDP（2005年不变价）	10⁸元
		社会效益	城镇居民人均可支配收入	元
		社会效益	社会消费品零售总额	10⁸元
		环境效益	绿地覆盖率	%
			生活垃圾无害化处理率	%
	非期望产出	环境污染	工业废气排放量	10⁴t
			工业废水排放量	10⁴t
			化肥折纯量	10⁴t

探测因子	2005年		2010年		2015年		2019年		均值
探测因子	q	排序	q	排序	q	排序	q	排序	q	排序
城镇化水平（X₁）	0.171^***	4	0.563^***	4	0.449^***	5	0.536^***	3	0.430	4
产业结构（X₂）	0.112^***	5	0.572^***	3	0.511^***	3	0.291^***	5	0.371	7
政府调控（X₃）	0.007	7	0.270^***	6	0.467^***	4	0.561^***	2	0.433	3
贸易水平（X₄）	0.248^***	3	0.393^***	5	0.837^***	1	0.178^***	7	0.414	5
市场化水平（X₅）	0.804^***	1	0.596^***	2	0.610^***	2	0.206^***	6	0.554	1
创新能力（X₆）	0.014	6	0.262^***	7	0.196^***	7	0.935^***	1	0.464	2
人口密度（X₇）	0.470^***	2	0.639^***	1	0.207^***	6	0.293^***	4	0.402	6

因子交互	2005年		2010年		2015年		2019年
因子交互	q	类型	q	类型	q	类型	q	类型
X₁∩X₂	1.000	NE	0.966	DE	1.000	NE	0.577	DE
X₁∩X₃	0.171	NE	0.785	DE	0.498	DE	0.577	DE
X₁∩X₄	1.000	NE	0.752	DE	1.000	DE	0.847	NE
X₁∩X₅	1.000	NE	0.688	DE	0.807	DE	0.960	NE
X₁∩X₆	0.171	NE	0.655	DE	0.451	DE	1.000	DE
X₁∩X₇	1.000	NE	0.752	DE	0.807	NE	1.000	NE
X₂∩X₃	0.112	NE	0.610	DE	0.844	DE	0.577	DE
X₂∩X₄	0.248	NE	0.884	DE	0.844	DE	0.848	NE
X₂∩X₅	0.804	NE	0.977	DE	0.682	DE	0.555	NE
X₂∩X₆	0.248	NE	0.735	DE	0.844	NE	1.000	DE
X₂∩X₇	0.804	NE	0.966	DE	0.697	DE	1.000	NE
X₃∩X₄	0.248	NE	0.634	DE	0.844	DE	0.848	NE
X₃∩X₅	0.804	NE	1.000	NE	0.844	DE	1.000	NE
X₃∩X₆	0.014	NE	0.757	NE	0.607	DE	1.000	DE
X₃∩X₇	0.471	DE	0.785	DE	1.000	NE	0.960	NE
X₄∩X₅	1.000	DE	0.931	DE	0.844	DE	0.802	NE
X₄∩X₆	0.248	DE	0.721	NE	0.837	DE	1.000	DE
X₄∩X₇	1.000	NE	0.667	DE	1.000	DE	0.406	DE
X₅∩X₆	1.000	NE	0.621	DE	0.805	DE	1.000	DE
X₅∩X₇	0.804	NE	1.000	DE	0.807	DE	1.000	NE
X₆∩X₇	0.473	DE	0.966	NE	0.228	DE	1.000	DE