人口增减分化对兰西城市群城市经济韧性的影响与作用路径

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.692

干旱区地理 ›› 2025, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (6): 1020-1030.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.692 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2024692

人口增减分化对兰西城市群城市经济韧性的影响与作用路径

王逸菲¹(), 孔德臻¹, 罗宇煊¹, 毛锦凰², 王梅梅¹^,³()

1.兰州大学资源环境学院，甘肃兰州 730000
2.兰州大学经济学院，甘肃兰州 730000
3.青藏高原人文环境数据智能实验室，甘肃兰州 730000

收稿日期:2024-11-09 修回日期:2024-12-19 出版日期:2025-06-25 发布日期:2025-06-18
通讯作者: 王梅梅（1988-），女，副教授，硕士生导师，主要从事人口变动与城市韧性研究. E-mail: wangmm@lzu.edu.cn
作者简介:王逸菲（2002-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事城市地理学和人口地理学研究. E-mail: yifeiwang2024@lzu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(42201198);自然资源部陆表系统与人地关系重点实验室开放基金(LBXT2023YB09)

Impact and pathways of population growth-decline differentiation on urban economic resilience in the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration

WANG Yifei¹(), KONG Dezhen¹, LUO Yuxuan¹, MAO Jinhuang², WANG Meimei¹^,³()

1. College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China
2. College of Economics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China
3. Intelligent Laboratory for Humanistic Environment Data of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China

Received:2024-11-09 Revised:2024-12-19 Published:2025-06-25 Online:2025-06-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在加快构建新发展格局以及推动高质量发展的过程中，人力资本已成为城市间竞争的核心要素。近年来，兰西城市群人口流失严重，人力资本竞争力不足，直接影响到兰西城市群的城市经济韧性。选取兰西城市群中6个典型城市作为研究区域，运用线性混合效应模型探讨2010、2015、2020年人口增减分化对城市经济韧性的影响及作用路径。结果表明：（1） 2010—2020年兰西城市群主要城市的城市经济韧性总体上呈上升趋势，且形成了以兰州市和西宁市为核心，其余城市为边缘的“核心-边缘”结构。（2）人口增减分化会直接影响到兰西城市群主要城市的城市经济韧性，人口流入对城市经济韧性具有正外部性。（3）产业结构合理化程度不会改变人口变动对城市经济韧性的影响强度，对于兰西城市群中的人口流失型城市，初期的人口流失在一定程度上可以促进产业结构合理化，但这种产业结构调整模式不具有可持续性。（4）人口变动会影响地方信息化程度，进而在一定程度上影响城市经济韧性，人口数量增加有利于城市信息化程度提高，进而增强了城市经济韧性。基于研究结论，应从推动区域协调发展、重视人力资本积累、加快产业结构转型升级、重视人口政策与信息化建设的协同推进等方面提升兰西城市群主要城市的城市经济韧性。

关键词: 人口变动, 城市经济韧性, 影响路径, 兰西城市群

Abstract:

As China accelerates the construction of new development models and advances high-quality development, human capital has become a key driver of intercity competitiveness. In recent years, the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration has experienced significant population decline and insufficient human capital competitiveness, which have directly weakened its urban economic resilience. This study examines six representative cities within the Lanzhou-Xining (Lanxi) urban agglomeration, employing a linear mixed-effects model to analyze the effects and mechanisms of differentiated population growth and decline on urban economic resilience in 2010, 2015, and 2020. The findings reveal the following characteristics of urban economic resilience in the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration. (1) Between 2010 and 2020, urban economic resilience generally increased across the Lanxi region, forming a “core-edge” structure, with Lanzhou City and Xining City at the core and other cities at the periphery. (2) Variations in population growth significantly affected urban economic resilience, with population inflows exerting positive externalities on regional resilience. (3) The rationalization of the industrial structure did not moderate the impact of population change on urban economic resilience. In cities experiencing population loss, initial declines facilitated some degree of industrial restructuring; however, this mode of adjustment was not sustainable over time. (4) Population change also influenced the level of local informatization, which in turn affected urban economic resilience. Population growth supported the development of urban informatization, thereby strengthening urban economic resilience. Based on these findings, it is recommended to promote coordinated regional development, enhance human capital accumulation, accelerate industrial transformation and upgrading, and advance population policy in tandem with informatization initiatives to improve the economic resilience of major cities in the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration.

Key words: population change, urban economic resilience, influence pathways, Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration

王逸菲, 孔德臻, 罗宇煊, 毛锦凰, 王梅梅. 人口增减分化对兰西城市群城市经济韧性的影响与作用路径[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(6): 1020-1030.

WANG Yifei, KONG Dezhen, LUO Yuxuan, MAO Jinhuang, WANG Meimei. Impact and pathways of population growth-decline differentiation on urban economic resilience in the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(6): 1020-1030.

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维度	指标	说明	方向
经济稳定性	通胀率	（本期CPI-上期CPI）/上期CPI	-
	人均GDP	GDP/常住人口	+
	城镇登记失业率	失业人口/适龄人口	-
	净出口与GDP比值	（出口-进口）/GDP	+
	财政赤字率	（财政支出-财政收入）/GDP	-
经济创新性	教育经费投入	教育事业经费支出/常住人口	+
	科技研发投入	R&D经费支出/常住人口	+
	创新成果产出	专利申请量+专利授予量	+
经济恢复性	人均固定资产投资额	固定资产投资总额/常住人口	+
	人均社会消费品零售额	社会消费品零售总额/常住人口	+
	旅游人数	年度旅游总人次	+
	GDP发展水平	名义GDP/CPI	+
	私营企业和个体就业人数占比	（私营企业就业人数+个体就业人数）/常住人口	+
经济流通性	金融机构贷款余额	年度金融机构贷款余额	+
经济流通性	人均货运量	货运量/常住人口	+

城市	2010年	2015年	2020年
兰州市	0.244	0.537	0.689
西宁市	0.156	0.360	0.368
海南藏族自治州	0.271	0.204	0.221
海东市	0.056	0.141	0.197
定西市	0.042	0.108	0.145
白银市	0.118	0.177	0.224

模型	固定效应	随机效应	校正赤池信息准则	对数似然	固定效应解释方差	总解释方差
a	人口变动	（截距\|城市）	-2.504	9.508	0.778	0.778
b	人口变动	（截距\|年份）	-3.103	12.826	0.751	0.893
c	人口变动	（截距\|城市）+（截距\|年份）	-2.504	9.508	0.778	0.889

参数	（截距\|城市）+（截距\|年份）	（截距\|城市）
截距	0.232（0.001）^***	0.232（0.021）^***
人口变动	-0.004（0.001）^***	-0.004（0.001）^***
组间方差	0.004	0.005

参数	模型1				标准化系数	模型2				标准化系数
参数	回归系数	标准误	t值	显著性	标准化系数	回归系数	标准误	t值	显著性	标准化系数
截距	0.232^**	0.021	11.070	0.000	-	0.010	0.058	0.173	0.865	-
人口变动	-0.004^**	0.001	-6.514	0.000	-0.852	-0.003^**	0.001	-4.547	0.000	-0.724
产业结构合理化程度	-	-	-	-	-	0.125	0.101	1.232	0.238	0.172
信息化程度	-	-	-	-	-	0.178^**	0.049	3.671	0.003	0.434

人口增减分化对兰西城市群城市经济韧性的影响与作用路径

Impact and pathways of population growth-decline differentiation on urban economic resilience in the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration

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中介路径	总效应	中介效应值	标准误	Z值	显著性	95%置信区间	直接效应
产业结构合理化程度中介效应	-0.004^**	0.001	0.124	0.004	0.997	-0.053~0.437	-0.003^**
信息化程度中介效应	-0.004^**	-0.001	0.105	-0.010	0.992	-0.449~-0.029	-0.003^**