黄河流域城市人口集聚与土地生态韧性的协同性研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.364

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

科学评估黄河流域城市人口集聚与土地生态韧性协同发展水平对于推进流域生态保护与高质量发展至关重要。基于“抵抗力-适应力-恢复力”三维框架构建土地生态韧性评价体系，运用耦合协调度模型、莫兰指数和空间杜宾面板Tobit模型考察了2000—2023年黄河流域城市人口集聚与土地生态韧性协同发展水平的时空演化规律、空间集聚特征以及影响因素。结果表明：（1）城市人口集聚水平与土地生态韧性水平均呈下降趋势，年均下降率分别为0.98%、0.26%；城市人口集聚水平呈“上游>中游>下游”的阶梯状分布格局；土地生态韧性水平呈“下游>上游>中游”的分布格局。（2）城市人口集聚与土地生态韧性协同发展水平表现出下降趋势，且呈“下游>上游>中游”的分布格局；高值城市主要出现在下游地区和省会城市，处于初级协调阶段，低值城市多为资源型城市，处于濒临失调阶段。（3）城市人口集聚与土地生态韧性协同发展水平存在空间正相关性。“高-高”集聚区主要分布在下游地区和四川省；“低-低”集聚区主要出现在宁夏沿黄城市群、兰州-西宁城市群和呼包鄂榆城市群。（4）经济发展水平、工业化水平、科技创新水平和政府干预是影响城市人口集聚与土地生态韧性协同发展的重要因素，且经济发展水平和工业化水平存在空间溢出效应。

关键词: 城市人口集聚, 土地生态韧性, 协同发展, 影响因素, 黄河流域

Abstract:

Scientifically evaluating the coordinated development of urban population agglomeration and land ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin is crucial for promoting ecological protection and high-quality development in the region. Based on the “resistance-adaptability-resilience” three-dimensional framework, a land ecological resilience evaluation system was constructed. The coupling coordination model, Moran’s I, and spatial Tobit model were employed to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution, spatial agglomeration characteristics, and influencing factors of the coordinated development of urban population agglomeration and land ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2023. The results indicate that: (1) The levels of urban population agglomeration and land ecological resilience exhibited a declining trend, with average annual decreases of 0.98% and 0.26%, respectively. The spatial distribution of urban population agglomeration followed a stepped pattern of “upstream>middle reaches>downstream”, while land ecological resilience was distributed as “downstream>upstream> middle reaches”. (2) The coordinated development level of urban population agglomeration and land ecological resilience declined over time, with a spatial distribution of “downstream>upstream>middle reaches”. High-value cities were primarily located in downstream areas and provincial capitals, remaining in the primary coordination stage, whereas low-value cities, predominantly resource-based, were on the verge of imbalance. (3) A spatial positive correlation was observed between urban population agglomeration and the coordinated development of land ecological resilience. “high-high” agglomeration areas were mainly concentrated in downstream regions and Sichuan Province, whereas “low-low” agglomeration areas were primarily located in the city group along the Yellow River Basin in Ningxia, Lanzhou-Xining city group, and Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin city group. (4) Economic development, industrialization, scientific and technological innovation, and government intervention were key factors influencing the coordinated development of urban population agglomeration and land ecological resilience. Additionally, economic development and industrialization exhibited significant spatial spillover effects.

Key words: urban population agglomeration, land ecological resilience, coordinated development, influencing factors, Yellow River Basin

李维露, 张明斗. 黄河流域城市人口集聚与土地生态韧性的协同性研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(4): 728-738.

LI Weilu, ZHANG Mingdou. Coordinated study of urban population agglomeration and land ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(4): 728-738.

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目标层	准则层	指标层	指标说明	权重	类型
城市土地生态韧性	抵抗力	土地生态服务价值	公式计算得出	0.4749	正向
	适应力	景观异质性	香农多样性指数	0.1833	正向
		景观异质性	斑块丰富度指数	-	正向
		景观连通性	景观蔓延度指数	-	正向
		景观连通性	景观分离度指数	-	负向
		景观形状	景观形状指数	-	负向
		景观形状	面积加权的平均形状指数	-	负向
	恢复力	土地生态恢复力指数	公式计算得出	0.3418	正向

指标	2000年	2005年	2010年	2015年	2020年	2023年
Moran’s I	0.3143^***	0.3430^***	0.3349^***	0.3193^***	0.2596^***	0.2360^***
Z值	10.70	11.63	11.37	10.86	8.91	8.13

变量	基准回归结果		模型一		模型二
变量	回归系数	Z值	回归系数	Z值	回归系数	Z值
经济发展水平	0.0105^**	2.07	0.0199^***	6.66	0.0108^**	2.07
工业化水平	-0.1350^***	-7.48	-0.1191^***	-5.39	-0.1349^***	-7.22
科技创新水平	0.3885^**	2.10	-0.0351	-0.15	0.3270^*	1.72
外商投资水平	-0.1288	-1.13	0.0566	0.43	-0.1293	-1.11
政府干预	-0.1162^***	-4.58	-0.1057^***	-4.07	-0.1170^***	-4.51
W×经济发展水平	-0.0116^*	-1.83	-0.0054^***	-10.08	-0.0289^***	-2.82
W×工业化水平	0.1382^***	4.82	0.0165^***	2.78	0.1502^***	3.53
W×科技创新水平	0.3845	0.98	0.2157^***	3.14	-0.0133	-0.03
W×外商投资水平	0.6018	1.49	0.0420	0.93	0.6759^**	2.49
W×政府干预	0.0023	0.05	0.0003	0.05	-0.1023^*	-1.77
ρ	0.7625^***	20.32	0.0824^***	13.49	0.7074^***	15.99
F值	346.3641	-	202.6957	-	-	-
调整R²	0.9983	-	0.9974	-	0.4389	-
自然对数似然函数值	1078.8026	-	1024.3378	-	1077.5026	-