干旱区地理 ›› 2024, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (4): 707-719.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.088
收稿日期:
2023-02-28
修回日期:
2023-04-23
出版日期:
2024-04-25
发布日期:
2024-05-17
通讯作者:
乌日陶克套胡(1963-),男,教授,博士生导师,主要从事民族地区经济与社会发展研究. E-mail: wurtkth@imnu.edu.cn作者简介:
慕石雷(1983-),男,博士研究生,主要从事民族经济、资源环境经济研究. E-mail: mushilei123@163.com
基金资助:
MU Shilei1(), YANG Yuhuan2, Wuritaoketaohu 1()
Received:
2023-02-28
Revised:
2023-04-23
Published:
2024-04-25
Online:
2024-05-17
摘要:
以黄河流域5大城市群82个城市为研究区域,选取2016—2020年中国环境监测总站发布的环境空气颗粒物(PM2.5)数据,采用空间自相关、地理探测器和地理加权回归等方法,研究PM2.5的时空分布特征和空间异质性的主要驱动影响因素。结果表明:(1) PM2.5年均值的变化大体呈倒“N”型,季均值变化呈先降后升的周期规律性的“U”型。(2) 在空间分布上,形成了黄河下游>中游>上游的梯度递减空间差异格局,并有逐渐下降的趋势。(3) PM2.5演变整体上呈正自相关集聚分布,集聚类型主要为高-高集聚、低-低集聚和低-高集聚类型。(4) 2016年和2020年PM2.5空间分异的自然地理因素比社会经济因素的驱动力更强,交互作用结果为双因子增强或非线性增强2种类型。(5) 通过地理加权回归模型对分异探测解释力变化最大的5个因子进行拟合,5 a间各因子对5大城市群PM2.5污染的负效应不断提高,正效应呈下降趋势,空间作用方向及强度上差异显著。研究结果为黄河流域5大城市群大气污染防治和环境规制完善提供参考依据,助推黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展。
慕石雷, 杨玉欢, 乌日陶克套胡. 黄河流域五大城市群PM2.5时空演变与影响因素探讨[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(4): 707-719.
MU Shilei, YANG Yuhuan, Wuritaoketaohu . Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of PM2.5 in the five urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(4): 707-719.
表2
黄河流域5大城市群PM2.5空间分布影响因素、因子解释力与分异探测结果"
影响因素 | 因子 | 评价指标 | 单位 | q | 差距 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016年 | 2020年 | |||||
自然地理 | 地形起伏度(X1) | WAVI | m | 0.466*** | 0.443*** | -0.023 |
气温(X2) | 年平均气温 | ℃ | 0.417*** | 0.462*** | 0.045 | |
降水量(X3) | 年平均降水量 | mm | 0.085*** | 0.068*** | -0.017 | |
植被覆盖指数(X4) | NDVI | - | 0.256*** | 0.301*** | 0.045 | |
净第一性生产力(X5) | NPP | g·m-2·a-1 | 0.500*** | 0.546*** | 0.046 | |
社会经济 | 经济增长(X6) | 人均GDP | 元 | 0.154*** | 0.136*** | -0.018 |
城市化(X7) | 城市人口/总人口 | % | 0.056*** | 0.086*** | 0.030 | |
工业化(X8) | 第二产业占地区生产总值的比重 | % | 0.100*** | 0.101*** | 0.001 | |
人口规模(X9) | 常住人口数量 | 104人 | 0.249*** | 0.209*** | -0.040 | |
工业规模(X10) | 规模以上工业总产值 | 104元 | 0.203*** | 0.103*** | -0.100 | |
科技创新(X11) | 专利授权数 | 件 | 0.151*** | 0.159*** | 0.008 | |
能源效率(X12) | 单位GDP工业用电量倒数=GDP/工业用电量 | % | 0.036*** | 0.221*** | 0.185 | |
烟尘和粉尘排放量(X13) | 工业SO2、工业氮氧化物、工业颗粒物排放量 | 103 kg | 0.023*** | 0.098*** | 0.075 | |
公众环境关注度(X14) | 百度雾霾搜索指数 | - | 0.154*** | 0.198*** | 0.044 | |
城市绿化率(X15) | 建成区绿化覆盖率 | % | 0.014*** | 0.185*** | 0.171 |
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