“双碳”目标下黄河流域城市绿色发展效率测度及提升路径

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.371

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

研判城市绿色发展效率及其优化路径，是推进黄河流域高质量发展的关键环节，亦是践行“碳达峰、碳中和”战略目标的重要方略。利用EBM-GML模型测算2005—2020年黄河流域58个城市的绿色发展效率，依次采用HP滤波分析、时空交互方法勾勒其演化特征，并对其多元提升路径进行定量识别。结果表明：（1）研究期内黄河流域城市绿色发展效率呈增长态势，由2005年的0.509提升至2020年的0.651，相继经历“波动—提升—共生”3个阶段，区域内部非均衡性特征显著。（2）黄河流域城市绿色发展效率局部空间结构具有良好的稳健性，空间移动方向波动性较强，城际空间协作程度大于空间竞争。（3）模糊集定性比较分析（fsQCA）结果表明，存在经济驱动型、双元驱动型、资源整合型、全面提升型4条优化路径，经济发展、科技创新等因素为必要条件。

关键词: “双碳”目标, 城市绿色发展效率, 时空交互, fsQCA, 黄河流域

Abstract:

Studying and assessing the efficiency of urban green development and delineating its optimization path constitute a key aspect in promoting high-quality development within the Yellow River Basin of China. This endeavor also aligns with the important strategy of realizing the strategic goal of “carbon peak and carbon neutrality”. The EBM-GML model was used to calculate the urban green development efficiency of 58 cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2005 to 2020. The evolution characteristics of the study area were outlined through HP filter analysis and spatiotemporal interaction methods, quantitatively identifying multiple lifting paths. The results show the following facts: (1) During the study period, urban green development efficiency in the Yellow River Basin increased from 0.509 in 2005 to 0.651 in 2020, traversing three successive stages of “fluctuation-improvement-symbiosis”. Notably, the characteristics of intraregional imbalance were remarkable. (2) The local spatial structure of green development efficiency in the Yellow River Basin is robust, with a highly variable spatial movement direction. Additionally, the degree of spatial collaboration in green development efficiency among cities is greater than that of spatial competition. (3) The fsQCA result shows four optimization paths: economic-driven, dual-driven, resource integration, and comprehensive improvement. Economic development and scientific and technological innovation are indispensable prerequisites for achieving these goals.

Key words: carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, urban green development efficiency, spatiotemporal interaction, fsQCA, Yellow River Basin

石彩霞, 贺小荣. “双碳”目标下黄河流域城市绿色发展效率测度及提升路径[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(3): 528-538.

SHI Caixia, HE Xiaorong. Measurement and improvement path of urban green development efficiency in the Yellow River Basin under the “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” targets[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(3): 528-538.

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系统层	要素层	指标层	单位	属性
投入	劳动	全市年末单位从业人数	10⁴人	+
	劳动	规模以上工业企业数	个	+
	资本	科学技术支出	10⁴元	+
		全社会固定资产投资	10⁴元	+
		城市建设用地面积	km²	+
	能源	供气总量	10⁴ t	+
		供水总量	m³	+
		用电总量	10⁴ kW·h	+
产出	期望产出	人均绿地面积	m²	+
		人均社会消费零售额	元	+
		绿色专利申请数量	件	+
	非期望产出	工业废水排放量	10⁴ t	-
		工业SO₂排放量	t	-
		工业固体废弃物排放量	t	-
		城市CO₂排放量	t	-

变量	“十一五”时期模糊校准点			“十二五”时期模糊校准点			“十三五”时期模糊校准点
变量	完全隶属	交叉点	完全不隶属	完全隶属	交叉点	完全不隶属	完全隶属	交叉点	完全不隶属
城市绿色发展效率（GTFP）	0.537	0.404	0.301	0.757	0.538	0.364	1.002	0.645	0.459
经济发展（ECO）	3.122	1.887	1.222	5.648	3.934	2.644	7.398	5.233	3.668
城镇化水平（URB）	0.569	0.442	0.371	0.627	0.491	0.421	0.692	0.558	0.494
产业结构（IND）	0.601	0.496	0.417	0.570	0.486	0.419	0.496	0.417	0.344
外商投资（EDI）	0.350	0.120	0.030	1.195	0.440	0.170	2.930	1.370	0.390
科技创新（INO）	3.064	1.003	0.322	6.805	2.650	0.548	7.801	2.244	0.559
环境规制（ENV）	0.970	0.871	0.660	0.984	0.916	0.733	0.944	0.829	0.593

变量	“十一五”时期		“十二五”时期		“十三五”时期
变量	一致性	覆盖度	一致性	覆盖度	一致性	覆盖度
经济发展（ECO）	0.624	0.617	0.776	0.713	0.633	0.618
~经济发展（ECO）	0.466	0.457	0.295	0.605	0.469	0.447
城镇化水平（URB）	0.579	0.605	0.780	0.718	0.619	0.621
~城镇化水平（URB）	0.505	0.470	0.305	0.623	0.498	0.463
产业结构（IND）	0.436	0.614	0.296	0.687	0.558	0.542
~产业结构（IND）	0.622	0.471	0.758	0.663	0.558	0.533
外商投资（EDI）	0.887	0.495	0.846	0.748	0.654	0.648
~外商投资（EDI）	0.031	0.887	0.208	0.467	0.460	0.434
科技创新（INO）	0.636	0.664	0.562	0.736	0.592	0.577
~科技创新（INO）	0.457	0.427	0.513	0.631	0.526	0.502
环境规制（ENV）	0.594	0.586	0.415	0.723	0.559	0.521
~环境规制（ENV）	0.488	0.480	0.669	0.667	0.547	0.548

变量	“十一五”时期			“十二五”时期				“十三五”时期
变量	组态A₁	组态A₂		组态B₁	组态B₂	组态B₃	组态B₄	组态C₁	组态C₂
经济发展（ECO）	●	●		●	●	●	●	●	●
城镇化水平（URB）	⊗	●		⊗	●	●	-	⊗	●
产业结构（IND）	●	⊗		●	●	⊗	⊗	●	●
外商投资（EDI）	⊗	-		-	⊗	⊗	●	⊗	●
科技创新（INO）	●	●		●	●	●	●	●	●
环境规制（ENV）	⊗	●		●	●	-	⊗	●	●
一致性	0.877	0.884		0.849	0.898	0.913	0.926	0.832	0.902
原始覆盖度	0.140	0.112		0.469	0.114	0.076	0.145	0.114	0.094
唯一覆盖度	0.048	0.019		0.042	0.005	0.005	0.079	0.175	0.155
总体一致性	0.867		0.826					0.874
总体覆盖度	0.459		0.484					0.457