黄河流域旅游经济差异及关键驱动因素研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.409

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

黄河流域旅游经济协调发展是推动流域高质量发展的重要力量。以旅游专业化水平为研究对象，从区域经济、创新能力、生产要素、旅游服务、制度政策5个维度构建驱动因素指标体系，基于2008—2020年黄河流域61地市的面板数据，借助核密度估计、全局莫兰指数、时空地理加权回归（GTWR）模型研究黄河流域旅游经济差异和驱动因素的时空演变规律。结果表明：（1）黄河流域旅游经济区域差异随时间扩大，部分年份存在右拖尾现象。（2）旅游专业化水平全局莫兰指数为正，存在空间集聚态势；局部空间集聚类型中“高-高”“低-低”“高-低”集聚区的范围扩大，“低-高”集聚区的范围缩小。从空间角度看，黄河流域旅游经济差异亦扩大。（3） 9个驱动因素对旅游经济的促进作用在时间上呈现出稳定型、递减型和递增型3种特征。（4）黄河流域上游地市旅游经济发展的关键驱动因素为区域经济、创新能力和旅游服务，中游地市旅游经济发展的关键驱动因素为区域经济、旅游服务和制度政策，下游地市旅游经济发展的关键驱动因素为创新能力、生产要素和制度政策。

关键词: 旅游经济差异, 驱动因素, GTWR模型, 黄河流域

Abstract:

The co-ordinated development of the tourism economy in the Yellow River Basin of China is essential for promoting the region's high-quality development. Considering the level of tourism specialization as the research object, this paper constructs a driving factor index system from five dimensions: regional economy, innovation capability, production factors, tourism services, and tourism policies. Based on the panel data of 61 cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2008 to 2020, we apply kernel density estimation, Moran index, and a geographically and temporally weighted regression model to study the spatio-temporal evolution of tourism economic differences and driving factors in the Yellow River Basin. The results show that: (1) Regional differences in the tourism economy in the Yellow River Basin continue to expand, and right-trailing phenomena have occurred in some years. (2) The Global Moran's I index of tourism specialization level is positive, and there is a spatial agglomeration trend. In the types of local spatial agglomeration, the scopes of “high-high” “low-low” and “high-low” agglomeration areas expand, whereas the scopes of “low-high” agglomeration areas narrow. From a spatial perspective, the differences in the Yellow River Basin tourism economy also expand. (3) The promotion effects of the nine driving factors on the tourism economy present three temporal characteristics: stable, decreasing, and increasing. (4) The key driving factors of economic development through tourism in upstream cities of the Yellow River Basin are regional economy, innovation capability, and tourism services. The factors that drive midstream cities are regional economy, tourism services, and policies, and the major driving factors in downstream cities are innovation capability, production factors, and tourism policies.

Key words: tourism economic differences, driving factors, GTWR model, Yellow River Basin

王慧娴, 杨蓓, 杨宁君, 李璐瑶. 黄河流域旅游经济差异及关键驱动因素研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(3): 515-527.

WANG Huixian, YANG Bei, YANG Ningjun, LI Luyao. Tourism economic differences and key driving factors in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(3): 515-527.

图/表 9

图1

表1

图2

表2

图3

表3

时空地理加权回归（GTWR）模型参数"

参数名称	带宽	残差平方和	残差估计标准差	赤池信息量准则	$R 2$	校正后 $R 2$	时空距离比
数值	1.988170	1.181310	0.038596	-2887.580000	0.890380	0.889120	0.268765

表3

表4

图4

图5

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一级指标	二级指标	指标含义	属性
区域经济	经济规模	人均GDP	+
	产业结构	第三产业占GDP比重	+
创新能力	创新投入	R&D支出占GDP比重	+
	创新人才	每万人拥有高校毕业人数	+
生产要素	旅游资源	旅游资源禀赋水平	+
	人力资源	旅游从业人员比重	+
旅游服务	旅游中介	每万人拥有旅行社数	+
	旅游交通	公路网密度	+
制度政策	旅游政策	政策支持情况	+

年份	全局莫兰指数	方差	Z值	P值
2008	0.286798	0.004820	4.370966	0.000012
2011	0.286680	0.004995	4.292147	0.000018
2014	0.474707	0.004907	7.014870	0.000000
2017	0.315604	0.004772	4.810092	0.000002
2020	0.278316	0.005041	4.154692	0.000033

驱动因素	均值	最大值	最小值	标准差
人均GDP	0.054807	0.055271	0.053706	0.000337
第三产业占GDP比重	0.007544	0.007601	0.007481	0.000026
R&D支出占GDP比重	0.626679	0.637167	0.614523	0.005326
每万人拥有高校毕业人数	0.015324	0.016088	0.014839	0.000315
旅游资源禀赋水平	0.013626	0.014785	0.012352	0.000643
旅游从业人员比重	0.723524	0.725536	0.722577	0.000647
每万人拥有旅行社数	0.049973	0.052044	0.046982	0.001158
公路网密度	0.019554	0.019658	0.019258	0.000074
政策支持情况	0.004711	0.004902	0.004534	0.000079