干旱区地理 ›› 2024, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (3): 528-538.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.371 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2023371
• 区域发展 • 上一篇
收稿日期:
2023-07-17
修回日期:
2023-08-03
出版日期:
2024-03-25
发布日期:
2024-03-29
通讯作者:
贺小荣(1972-),男,教授,博士生导师,主要从事旅游地理研究. E-mail: he1502@126.com作者简介:
石彩霞(1995-),女,博士研究生,主要从事城市地理研究. E-mail: scx_hunnu@163.com
基金资助:
Received:
2023-07-17
Revised:
2023-08-03
Published:
2024-03-25
Online:
2024-03-29
摘要:
研判城市绿色发展效率及其优化路径,是推进黄河流域高质量发展的关键环节,亦是践行“碳达峰、碳中和”战略目标的重要方略。利用EBM-GML模型测算2005—2020年黄河流域58个城市的绿色发展效率,依次采用HP滤波分析、时空交互方法勾勒其演化特征,并对其多元提升路径进行定量识别。结果表明:(1) 研究期内黄河流域城市绿色发展效率呈增长态势,由2005年的0.509提升至2020年的0.651,相继经历“波动—提升—共生”3个阶段,区域内部非均衡性特征显著。(2) 黄河流域城市绿色发展效率局部空间结构具有良好的稳健性,空间移动方向波动性较强,城际空间协作程度大于空间竞争。(3) 模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)结果表明,存在经济驱动型、双元驱动型、资源整合型、全面提升型4条优化路径,经济发展、科技创新等因素为必要条件。
石彩霞, 贺小荣. “双碳”目标下黄河流域城市绿色发展效率测度及提升路径[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(3): 528-538.
SHI Caixia, HE Xiaorong. Measurement and improvement path of urban green development efficiency in the Yellow River Basin under the “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” targets[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(3): 528-538.
表2
变量校准锚点"
变量 | “十一五”时期模糊校准点 | “十二五”时期模糊校准点 | “十三五”时期模糊校准点 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
完全隶属 | 交叉点 | 完全不隶属 | 完全隶属 | 交叉点 | 完全不隶属 | 完全隶属 | 交叉点 | 完全不隶属 | |||
城市绿色发展效率(GTFP) | 0.537 | 0.404 | 0.301 | 0.757 | 0.538 | 0.364 | 1.002 | 0.645 | 0.459 | ||
经济发展(ECO) | 3.122 | 1.887 | 1.222 | 5.648 | 3.934 | 2.644 | 7.398 | 5.233 | 3.668 | ||
城镇化水平(URB) | 0.569 | 0.442 | 0.371 | 0.627 | 0.491 | 0.421 | 0.692 | 0.558 | 0.494 | ||
产业结构(IND) | 0.601 | 0.496 | 0.417 | 0.570 | 0.486 | 0.419 | 0.496 | 0.417 | 0.344 | ||
外商投资(EDI) | 0.350 | 0.120 | 0.030 | 1.195 | 0.440 | 0.170 | 2.930 | 1.370 | 0.390 | ||
科技创新(INO) | 3.064 | 1.003 | 0.322 | 6.805 | 2.650 | 0.548 | 7.801 | 2.244 | 0.559 | ||
环境规制(ENV) | 0.970 | 0.871 | 0.660 | 0.984 | 0.916 | 0.733 | 0.944 | 0.829 | 0.593 |
表3
单因子必要性分析结果"
变量 | “十一五”时期 | “十二五”时期 | “十三五”时期 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
一致性 | 覆盖度 | 一致性 | 覆盖度 | 一致性 | 覆盖度 | |||
经济发展(ECO) | 0.624 | 0.617 | 0.776 | 0.713 | 0.633 | 0.618 | ||
~经济发展(ECO) | 0.466 | 0.457 | 0.295 | 0.605 | 0.469 | 0.447 | ||
城镇化水平(URB) | 0.579 | 0.605 | 0.780 | 0.718 | 0.619 | 0.621 | ||
~城镇化水平(URB) | 0.505 | 0.470 | 0.305 | 0.623 | 0.498 | 0.463 | ||
产业结构(IND) | 0.436 | 0.614 | 0.296 | 0.687 | 0.558 | 0.542 | ||
~产业结构(IND) | 0.622 | 0.471 | 0.758 | 0.663 | 0.558 | 0.533 | ||
外商投资(EDI) | 0.887 | 0.495 | 0.846 | 0.748 | 0.654 | 0.648 | ||
~外商投资(EDI) | 0.031 | 0.887 | 0.208 | 0.467 | 0.460 | 0.434 | ||
科技创新(INO) | 0.636 | 0.664 | 0.562 | 0.736 | 0.592 | 0.577 | ||
~科技创新(INO) | 0.457 | 0.427 | 0.513 | 0.631 | 0.526 | 0.502 | ||
环境规制(ENV) | 0.594 | 0.586 | 0.415 | 0.723 | 0.559 | 0.521 | ||
~环境规制(ENV) | 0.488 | 0.480 | 0.669 | 0.667 | 0.547 | 0.548 |
表4
黄河流域城市绿色发展效率的组态结果"
变量 | “十一五”时期 | “十二五”时期 | “十三五”时期 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
组态A1 | 组态A2 | 组态B1 | 组态B2 | 组态B3 | 组态B4 | 组态C1 | 组态C2 | |||
经济发展(ECO) | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ||
城镇化水平(URB) | ⊗ | ● | ⊗ | ● | ● | - | ⊗ | ● | ||
产业结构(IND) | ● | ⊗ | ● | ● | ⊗ | ⊗ | ● | ● | ||
外商投资(EDI) | ⊗ | - | - | ⊗ | ⊗ | ● | ⊗ | ● | ||
科技创新(INO) | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ||
环境规制(ENV) | ⊗ | ● | ● | ● | - | ⊗ | ● | ● | ||
一致性 | 0.877 | 0.884 | 0.849 | 0.898 | 0.913 | 0.926 | 0.832 | 0.902 | ||
原始覆盖度 | 0.140 | 0.112 | 0.469 | 0.114 | 0.076 | 0.145 | 0.114 | 0.094 | ||
唯一覆盖度 | 0.048 | 0.019 | 0.042 | 0.005 | 0.005 | 0.079 | 0.175 | 0.155 | ||
总体一致性 | 0.867 | 0.826 | 0.874 | |||||||
总体覆盖度 | 0.459 | 0.484 | 0.457 |
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