1960—2023年木孜塔格峰冰川变化及其地形因素分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.107

干旱区地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (1): 23-34.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.107 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2025107

1960—2023年木孜塔格峰冰川变化及其地形因素分析

李若楠¹^,²^,³(), 李均力¹^,³(), 刘帅琪¹^,²^,³, 都伟冰⁴

1 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所干旱区生态安全与可持续发展全国重点实验室，新疆乌鲁木齐 830011
2 中国科学院大学，北京 100049
3 新疆遥感与地理信息系统应用重点实验室，新疆乌鲁木齐 830011
4 河南理工大学测绘与国土信息工程学院，河南焦作 454003

收稿日期:2025-03-01 修回日期:2025-07-21 出版日期:2026-01-25 发布日期:2026-01-18
通讯作者: 李均力（1980-），男，博士，研究员，主要从事遥感信息提取、水资源遥感等方面的研究. E-mail: lijl@ms.xjb.ac.cn
作者简介:李若楠（2001-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事干旱区冰川变化研究. E-mail: liruonan23@mails.ucas.ac.cn
基金资助:
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金(2023D01E18);天山英才科技创新团队(2022TSYCTD0006);第三次新疆综合科学考察(2021x-jkk1400)

Glacier changes and topographic factors of the Ulugh Muztagh from 1960 to 2023

LI Ruonan¹^,²^,³(), LI Junli¹^,³(), LIU Shuaiqi¹^,²^,³, DU Weibing⁴

1 State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China
2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3 Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China
4 College of Survey and Territory Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454003, Henan, China

Received:2025-03-01 Revised:2025-07-21 Published:2026-01-25 Online:2026-01-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

木孜塔格峰冰川变化对南疆水资源具有重要影响。利用1960—2023年的多源遥感数据和深度学习方法提取木孜塔格峰区冰川的面积及末端变化，并分别从冰川单元和地形角度分析冰川变化的区域差异及驱动因素。结果表明：（1）1960—2023年木孜塔格峰冰川总体上呈现退缩趋势，冰川面积退缩速率为0.83 km²·a^-1，冰川末端退缩速率为2.21 m·a^-1，与中国西北其他冰川相比变化幅度较小。（2）从冰川内部的区域差异来看，冰川面积退缩速率在南向和东向较大，且随海拔和坡度的增加而减小；而冰川末端退缩速率在东、西坡向（4.42 m·a^-1和4.01 m·a^-1）高于南、北坡向（1.63 m·a^-1和1.45 m·a^-1）。（3）木孜塔格峰区冰川面积和末端区域变化差异主要受到地形与气候作用的影响，阳坡受更多太阳辐射导致加速融化，低海拔区域则因气温上升而更易发生退缩。研究结果为理解高寒山区冰川对气候变化的响应机制提供了科学依据，对南疆地区水资源管理及生态安全评估具有重要参考价值。

关键词: 冰川面积, 末端退缩, 时空变化, 地形因子, 气候要素, 木孜塔格峰

Abstract:

Changes to glaciers in the Ulugh Muztagh region significantly impact water resources in southern Xinjiang. This study extracted glacier area and terminus changes in Ulugh Muztagh region glaciers using multi-source remote sensing data from 1960 to 2023 and deep learning methods. Differences and driving factors were analyzed from the perspectives of glacier units and topographic features. The results show that (1) Overall, Ulugh Muztagh glaciers retreated from 1960 to 2023, with an average annual area loss of 0.83 km²·a^-1 and a terminus retreat rate of 2.21 m·a^-1. (2) In terms of intra-glacier regional differences, the retreat rate of glacier area was higher on south- and east-facing slopes and decreased with increasing elevation and slope. The terminus retreat rate was greater on east- and west-facing slopes (4.42 m·a^-1 and 4.01 m·a^-1, respectively) than on south- and north-facing slopes (1.63 m·a^-1 and 1.45 m·a^-1, respectively). (3) The spatial differences in glacier area and terminus changes in the Ulugh Muztagh region are mainly influenced by topography and climate. Sunny slopes receive more solar radiation, accelerating glacier melt, while lower elevations are prone to retreat due to rising temperatures. These findings provide a scientific basis for understanding the mechanisms by which alpine glaciers respond to climate change and offer important references for water resource management and ecological security assessment in southern Xinjiang.

Key words: glacier area, terminus retreat, spatiotemporal variations, topographic factors, climatic elements, Ulugh Muztagh

李若楠, 李均力, 刘帅琪, 都伟冰. 1960—2023年木孜塔格峰冰川变化及其地形因素分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(1): 23-34.

LI Ruonan, LI Junli, LIU Shuaiqi, DU Weibing. Glacier changes and topographic factors of the Ulugh Muztagh from 1960 to 2023[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(1): 23-34.

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年份	影像日期（年-月-日）	来源	轨道号/行号或网格编号	分辨率/m
1960	-	地形图	-	10
1986	1986-11-08	Landsat	141/035	30
1995	1995-03-22	Landsat	141/035	30
2004	2004-09-14	Landsat	141/035	30
2015	2015-08-20	Landsat	141/035	30
2023	2023-09-07	Sentinel	T45SWA	10

数据类别	评价指标
数据类别	PA	UA	OA	F1	IoU
Sentinel-2	0.831	0.851	0.950	0.835	0.768
Landsat-5\7\8	0.748	0.832	0.916	0.780	0.679

年份	面积/km²	变化量 /km²	退缩速率 /km²·a^-1	退缩率 /%	年均退缩率/%·a^-1
1960	703.51±6.97	-	-	-	-
1986	678.32±12.83	-25.19	0.97	3.58	0.14
1995	674.94±12.71	-3.38	0.38	0.50	0.06
2004	671.48±13.43	-3.46	0.38	0.51	0.06
2015	663.85±14.31	-7.63	0.69	1.14	0.10
2023	651.50±5.83	-12.35	1.54	1.86	0.23
总计	-	-52.01	0.83	7.39	0.12

因子	冰川规模	最小海拔	最大海拔	平均海拔	平均坡度	南北向	东西向
面积退缩量	0.58^***	-0.21^*	0.69^***	0.26^**	-0.27^**	0.15	-0.02
面积退缩率	-0.28^**	-0.08	-0.31^**	-0.34^***	0.29^**	0.10	-0.10
末端退缩速率	0.37^**	-0.21	0.51^***	0.28^**	0.03	0.11	0.10

山系	年平均气温/℃	年平均降水量/mm	数据来源
木孜塔格山	-11.5	413	车彦军等^[31]
阿尔泰山	-8.0~4.1	75~700	戴玉萍等^[42]
天山	8.0	500~1200	邢武成等^[43]
阿尔金山	3.5	50~100	张聪等^[44]
祁连山	4.0	250	程锦泉^[45]
东昆仑山	0.0~8.0	500~800	李成秀^[40]
中昆仑山	0.0~8.0	100	李成秀^[40]
西昆仑山	0.0~8.0	20	李成秀^[40]
喀喇昆仑山北坡	0.0~6.0	600	李海娟^[46]
唐古拉山	-1.6	420	张裕^[47]
念青唐古拉山	-1.0	400~700	李亚鹏等^[48]
喜马拉雅山（珠峰绒布河流域）	2.0	371	刘玉婷等^[49]

1960—2023年木孜塔格峰冰川变化及其地形因素分析

Glacier changes and topographic factors of the Ulugh Muztagh from 1960 to 2023

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山脉	典型区域	最高海拔/m	平均海拔/m	研究时段	冰川面积年均退缩率/%·a^-1	数据来源
中昆仑山	木孜塔格山区	6973	5557	1960—2023	0.12	本研究
阿尔泰山	友谊峰	4374	-	1959—2008	0.39	骆书飞等^[50]
天山	阿克苏河流域	-	2233	1975—2016	0.63	Zhang等^[51]
天山	依连哈比尔尕山	4590	-	2016—2022	0.75	李若楠等^[35]
阿尔金山	西段	6228	5800	1973—2020	0.44	田洪阵等^[52]
	中段	-	4000~4200	1973—2020	0.32	田洪阵等^[52]
	东段	-	5177	1973—2020	0.62	田洪阵等^[52]
祁连山	团结峰地区	5826	-	1966—2020	0.32	石梦寒^[53]
西昆仑山	昆仑峰区	7167	-	1976—2010	0.12	李成秀等^[54]
中昆仑山	布喀塔格峰	6860	-	1973—2010	0.14	姜珊^[55]
中昆仑山	马兰冰帽	6056	-	1973—2010	0.16	姜珊^[55]
喀喇昆仑山	克勒青河流域	8611	5400	1978—2015	0.22	许艾文等^[56]
喀喇昆仑山	克勒青河流域	8611	5400	2000—2016	0.14	王盼盼^[57]
唐古拉山	格拉丹东地区	6621	5182~6621	1990—2015	0.26	王聪强等^[58]
	冬克玛底地区	6100	5173~6100	1990—2015	0.68	王聪强等^[58]
	布加岗日地区	6328	4175~6328	1990—2015	0.75	王聪强等^[58]
	中段	-	-	1990—2015	0.89	王聪强等^[58]
念青唐古拉山	西段	7093	-	1976—2011	0.59	冀琴等^[59]
	东部	-	-	1999—2015	1.24	Ji等^[60]
	纳木错流域	-	-	1970—2000	0.51	吴艳红^[61]
喜马拉雅山	珠穆朗玛峰保护区	8849	-	1976—2006	0.52	聂勇等^[37]

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