中国新基建与区域韧性耦合协调发展：时空差异与演变趋势

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.370

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

新基建与区域韧性耦合协调发展是实现新型城镇化的有效途径。构建新基建与区域韧性评价指标体系，基于组合赋权和耦合协调度模型测度31个省份2013—2020年新基建与区域韧性发展指数及耦合协调水平，并采用Dagum基尼系数、空间自相关与马尔可夫链，分析其时空差异与演变趋势特征。结果发现：（1）新基建与区域韧性发展指数皆呈上升趋势，两者耦合协调状态由轻度失调转变为勉强协调。（2）耦合协调水平存在空间非均衡性，总体差异有所减小，地区间差异是总体差异的最主要来源。（3）耦合协调水平有明显的空间集聚特征，主要表现为东部的高值集聚区与西部的低值集聚区。（4）耦合协调性具有向更高水平跃迁的概率倾向，但难以实现跨越式发展；高值省份对邻近省份有显著的正向溢出效应。研究揭示了新基建与区域韧性的发展现状，有助于为多方主体的规划和管理提供理论支撑及决策参考。

关键词: 新基建, 区域韧性, 耦合协调度, 空间差异, 演变趋势

Abstract:

Coupling and coordinated development of new infrastructure and regional resilience is an effective way to achieve new urbanization. This study constructs an evaluation index system for new infrastructure and regional resilience. Using a combination weighting and coupling coordination degree model, we measure the development index and coupling coordination level of new infrastructure and regional resilience across 31 provinces of China from 2013 to 2020. The Dagum Gini coefficient, spatial autocorrelation, and Markov chain are used to analyze spatial and temporal differences and evolution trend characteristics. The results reveal the following: (1) The new infrastructure and regional resilience development index are rising, with the coupling coordination state transitioning from mild imbalance to narrow coordination. (2) A spatial imbalance is observed in the level of coupling coordination; although the overall difference is decreasing, interregional differences remain the primary source of the overall disparity. (3) The coupling coordination level exhibits pronounced spatial agglomeration characteristics, mainly represented by high-value agglomeration areas in the east and low-value agglomeration areas in the west. (4) Coupling coordination tends to progress to high levels, although achieving leapfrog development remains challenging; high-value provinces exert a substantial positive spillover effect on neighboring provinces. This study examines the development status of new infrastructure and regional resilience, providing theoretical support and decision-making references for multiagent planning and management.

Key words: new infrastructure, regional resilience, coupling coordination degree, spatial differences, evolution trend

张立新, 张家瑞. 中国新基建与区域韧性耦合协调发展：时空差异与演变趋势[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(12): 2164-2176.

ZHANG Lixin, ZHANG Jiarui. Coupling and coordinated development of new infrastructure and regional resilience in China: Spatio-temporal differences and evolution trends[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(12): 2164-2176.

图/表 11

图1

表1

表2

表3

图2

表4

耦合协调度"

省份	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年	2017年	2018年	2019年	2020年	协调程度
北京	0.533	0.567	0.569	0.602	0.621	0.632	0.639	0.619	初级协调
天津	0.395	0.423	0.427	0.456	0.478	0.469	0.471	0.490	濒临失调
河北	0.406	0.427	0.434	0.462	0.492	0.503	0.529	0.551	勉强协调
山西	0.333	0.338	0.351	0.363	0.366	0.378	0.405	0.427	濒临失调
内蒙古	0.335	0.390	0.399	0.408	0.425	0.424	0.430	0.439	濒临失调
辽宁	0.435	0.447	0.463	0.441	0.460	0.465	0.475	0.494	濒临失调
吉林	0.325	0.341	0.357	0.373	0.385	0.412	0.410	0.433	濒临失调
黑龙江	0.356	0.359	0.374	0.395	0.405	0.420	0.433	0.453	濒临失调
上海	0.517	0.540	0.556	0.565	0.582	0.595	0.613	0.626	初级协调
江苏	0.628	0.670	0.686	0.706	0.735	0.755	0.777	0.817	良好协调
浙江	0.483	0.519	0.548	0.573	0.600	0.622	0.656	0.701	中级协调
安徽	0.405	0.427	0.450	0.470	0.490	0.501	0.524	0.550	勉强协调
福建	0.383	0.403	0.440	0.459	0.475	0.517	0.545	0.602	初级协调
江西	0.355	0.372	0.394	0.415	0.438	0.457	0.484	0.508	勉强协调
山东	0.536	0.566	0.599	0.618	0.641	0.664	0.686	0.718	中级协调
河南	0.428	0.454	0.485	0.508	0.553	0.571	0.594	0.634	初级协调
湖北	0.461	0.484	0.482	0.505	0.530	0.546	0.569	0.566	勉强协调
湖南	0.364	0.403	0.438	0.464	0.496	0.523	0.559	0.589	勉强协调
广东	0.626	0.650	0.674	0.711	0.749	0.779	0.816	0.854	良好协调
广西	0.317	0.336	0.358	0.387	0.417	0.430	0.450	0.484	濒临失调
海南	0.254	0.265	0.279	0.290	0.326	0.329	0.362	0.396	轻度失调
重庆	0.351	0.393	0.382	0.397	0.422	0.436	0.462	0.488	濒临失调
四川	0.385	0.408	0.439	0.460	0.486	0.526	0.567	0.600	勉强协调
贵州	0.274	0.296	0.318	0.341	0.368	0.384	0.401	0.419	濒临失调
云南	0.301	0.322	0.331	0.356	0.372	0.392	0.416	0.431	濒临失调
西藏	0.122	0.141	0.152	0.222	0.220	0.228	0.235	0.245	中度失调
陕西	0.369	0.410	0.411	0.433	0.445	0.455	0.472	0.508	勉强协调
甘肃	0.250	0.268	0.285	0.308	0.327	0.336	0.350	0.360	轻度失调
青海	0.214	0.239	0.258	0.271	0.275	0.275	0.292	0.290	中度失调
宁夏	0.252	0.262	0.284	0.295	0.301	0.304	0.306	0.317	轻度失调
新疆	0.290	0.316	0.331	0.346	0.375	0.382	0.400	0.409	濒临失调
均值	0.377	0.401	0.418	0.439	0.460	0.475	0.494	0.517	勉强协调
标准差	0.113	0.117	0.118	0.118	0.123	0.128	0.132	0.139	-
变异系数	0.300	0.292	0.283	0.268	0.268	0.270	0.268	0.269	-

表4

图3

表5

图4

图5

表6

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系统	子系统	评价含义	具体指标	指标属性
新基建	信息基建	通信网络	移动电话基站数量/10⁴个	正向
			工业互联网企业数/个	正向
			长途光缆线路密度/km·(10⁴ km²)^-1	正向
		新技术	人工智能相关企业数/个	正向
		新技术	信息传输、软件和技术服务业固定资产投资/10⁸元	正向
		算力	移动电话交换机容量/10⁴户	正向
	融合基建	智能交通	轨道交通运营里程/km	正向
		智慧能源	特高压相关企业数/个	正向
		智慧能源	新能源汽车充电桩企业数/个	正向
	创新基建	重大科技	科技馆建筑面积/10⁴ m²	正向
		重大科技	国家级科技企业孵化器/个	正向
		科教	大学科技园场地面积/10⁴ m²	正向
		产业技术创新	火炬产业基地企业数/个	正向
		产业技术创新	科学研究和技术服务业固定资产投资/10⁸元	正向
区域韧性	经济韧性	经济水平	人均GDP/元	正向
			人均消费支出/元	正向
			货物进出口总额/10⁸元	正向
		产业结构多元化	第三产业产值占比/%	正向
		产业结构多元化	工业增加值/10⁸元	正向
	社会韧性	社会稳定性	城镇登记失业率/%	负向
		人口素质	本科学历人口占比/%	正向
		保障程度	城乡居民收入差距	负向
			每千人医疗卫生床位数/张	正向
			一般公共预算支出/10⁸元	正向
	生态韧性	适应性	建成区绿化覆盖率/%	正向
		适应性	人均公园绿地面积/m²	正向
		污染治理能力	生活垃圾无害化处理率/%	正向
			一般工业固体废物综合利用率/%	正向
			污水处理率/%	正向
		可持续性	环境基础设施建设投资/10⁸元	正向

D值区间	耦合协调程度	D值区间	耦合协调程度
（0.0~0.1）	极度失调	[0.5~0.6）	勉强协调
[0.1~0.2）	严重失调	[0.6~0.7）	初级协调
[0.2~0.3）	中度失调	[0.7~0.8）	中级协调
[0.3~0.4）	轻度失调	[0.8~0.9）	良好协调
[0.4~0.5）	濒临失调	[0.9~1.0）	优质协调

指标	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年	2017年	2018年	2019年	2020年
Moran’s I	0.335	0.312	0.325	0.312	0.325	0.313	0.326	0.370
z值	3.109	2.918	3.025	2.910	3.020	2.924	3.030	3.408
P值	0.001^***	0.002^***	0.001^***	0.002^***	0.001^***	0.002^***	0.001^***	0.000^***

空间滞后	t/t+1	L	ML	MH	H
无滞后	L	0.797	0.203	0.000	0.000
	ML	0.000	0.750	0.250	0.000
	MH	0.000	0.000	0.830	0.170
	H	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
L	L	0.846	0.154	0.000	0.000
	ML	0.000	0.857	0.143	0.000
	MH	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000
	H	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
ML	L	0.833	0.167	0.000	0.000
	ML	0.000	0.783	0.217	0.000
	MH	0.000	0.000	0.909	0.091
	H	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
MH	L	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
	ML	0.000	0.708	0.292	0.000
	MH	0.000	0.000	0.762	0.238
	H	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
H	L	0.833	0.167	0.000	0.000
	ML	0.000	0.500	0.500	0.000
	MH	0.000	0.000	0.833	0.167
	H	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000