生态福利绩效时空演化及影响因素研究——以山西省为例

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.142

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

生态福利绩效统筹人类社会系统和自然环境系统，对于衡量资源型城市可持续发展能力具有重要意义。利用super-SBM模型对山西省2006—2021年生态福利绩效进行测度，利用标准差椭圆和GIS空间可视化分析了生态福利绩效时空演变规律，并通过熵权法和Dagum基尼系数识别生态福利绩效偏低的原因及区域差异来源，最后利用地理探测器探究其驱动因素。结果表明：（1）山西省各地市生态福利绩效均值为0.681；不同地市之间生态福利绩效水平及提升效果存在差异。（2）研究期内，生态福利绩效重心坐标呈现由北向南、转而向西南移动的态势；不同类型地区之间维持现状的概率较大。（3）综合指数解构方面，资源消耗的增长及人类发展指数较低是造成生态福利绩效水平低的主要原因；区域间差异是生态福利绩效地区差异的主要来源。（4）驱动因素方面，城镇化水平是关键的驱动因素；对外开放程度与其他因子的协同作用是形成生态福利绩效现状的主要驱动因素。研究结果对山西省提升生态福利绩效水平、实现转型跨越式新发展具有重要的现实意义。

关键词: 生态福利绩效, super-SBM模型, 时空演化, 地理探测器, 山西省

Abstract:

Ecological welfare performance integrates the human social system and the natural environmental system, serving as a critical metric for assessing the sustainable development capability of resource-oriented cities. This study employs the super-SBM model to evaluate the ecological welfare performance of Shanxi Province, China from 2006 to 2021. The spatial and temporal evolution of ecological welfare performance is analyzed using the standard deviation ellipse and GIS spatial visualization. In addition, the entropy weighting method and the Dagum Gini coefficient are applied to identify the causes of low ecological welfare performance and the sources of regional disparities. Finally, the Geodetector method is used to investigate the driving factors. The findings indicate that: (1) The mean ecological welfare performance across municipalities in Shanxi Province is 0.681, with significant variation in levels and enhancement effects among municipalities. (2) During the study period, the center of gravity of ecological welfare performance shifted from the north to the south and subsequently to the southwest, with a high likelihood of maintaining the status quo across different types of regions. (3) Regarding the composite index deconstruction, increased resource consumption and a low human development index are identified as primary contributors to the low levels of ecological welfare performance. Inter-regional differences constitute the main source of regional disparities. (4) Urbanization emerges as a key driving factor, while the degree of openness to external influences, in synergy with other factors, plays a pivotal role in shaping the current state of ecological welfare performance. These findings have significant practical implications for enhancing the ecological welfare performance in Shanxi Province and achieving transformative and leapfrog development.

Key words: ecological welfare performanc, super-SBM model, spatio-temporal evolution, geographic detectore, Shanxi Province

王紫彦, 牛莉芹, 程占红. 生态福利绩效时空演化及影响因素研究——以山西省为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(12): 2152-2163.

WANG Ziyan, NIU Liqin, CHENG Zhanhong. Temporal and spatial evolution of ecological welfare performance and its influencing factors: A case of Shanxi Province[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(12): 2152-2163.

图/表 8

表1

表2

图1

图2

表3

图3

表4

生态福利绩效的基尼系数分解"

年份	总体基尼系数	区域内差异				区域间差异
年份	总体基尼系数	晋北	晋中	晋南	晋东南	晋中-晋北		晋南-晋北	晋南-晋中
2006	0.437	0.345	0.450	0.017	0.048	0.423		0.595	0.541
2007	0.392	0.305	0.439	0.139	0.059	0.398		0.566	0.531
2008	0.440	0.410	0.437	0.070	0.251	0.436		0.565	0.546
2009	0.366	0.251	0.416	0.046	0.195	0.367		0.477	0.490
2010	0.307	0.228	0.340	0.120	0.153	0.319		0.336	0.413
2011	0.323	0.106	0.390	0.063	0.018	0.340		0.561	0.498
2012	0.311	0.143	0.379	0.130	0.103	0.312		0.423	0.458
2013	0.324	0.208	0.363	0.046	0.005	0.319		0.436	0.484
2014	0.321	0.247	0.336	0.010	0.015	0.326		0.392	0.447
2015	0.356	0.282	0.366	0.038	0.186	0.354		0.427	0.476
2016	0.387	0.261	0.370	0.027	0.258	0.350		0.440	0.507
2017	0.368	0.317	0.402	0.037	0.145	0.391		0.398	0.463
2018	0.340	0.253	0.408	0.024	0.046	0.371		0.382	0.464
2019	0.338	0.101	0.375	0.026	0.086	0.356		0.131	0.392
2020	0.269	0.131	0.334	0.025	0.002	0.302		0.381	0.350
2021	0.258	0.186	0.282	0.051	0.001	0.265		0.288	0.330
年份	区域间差异						贡献率/%
年份	晋东南-晋北		晋中-晋东南		晋南-晋东南		区域内差异	区域间差异	超变密度
2006	0.486		0.458		0.153		24.705	55.150	20.145
2007	0.286		0.361		0.431		24.702	43.444	31.853
2008	0.406		0.408		0.519		25.151	33.196	41.653
2009	0.253		0.368		0.481		24.199	34.935	40.865
2010	0.225		0.297		0.395		24.816	35.661	39.524
2011	0.090		0.354		0.615		18.678	58.346	22.975
2012	0.157		0.319		0.497		22.425	44.686	32.888
2013	0.207		0.325		0.573		20.339	50.618	29.043
2014	0.252		0.315		0.555		20.148	51.087	28.765
2015	0.303		0.324		0.559		22.793	44.108	33.099
2016	0.374		0.390		0.638		21.380	51.743	26.877
2017	0.315		0.345		0.467		24.428	33.239	42.332
2018	0.216		0.325		0.508		23.097	42.969	33.934
2019	0.450		0.347		0.548		18.593	67.294	14.113
2020	0.097		0.302		0.458		20.045	54.365	25.590
2021	0.202		0.258		0.459		20.540	54.926	24.534

表4

图4

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一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	具体指标
投入指标	资源消耗	土地资源消耗	人均城市建设面积
		能源资源消耗	人均用电量
		水资源消耗	人均用水量
产出指标	环境污染	废水排放量	人均工业废水排放量
		废气排放量	人均工业SO₂排放量
		固体废弃物排放量	人均工业烟粉尘排放量
	人类发展	经济发展水平	人均GDP
		教育发展水平	人均高等学校在校生数
		健康发展水平	人均城市医院病床数

地区		2006年	2008年	2010年	2012年	2014年	2016年	2018年	2020年	2021年	均值
晋北	大同市	0.362	0.408	0.458	0.578	0.395	0.313	0.301	0.545	0.473	0.431
	朔州市	1.818	1.673	1.208	1.086	1.152	1.077	0.665	1.055	1.064	1.191
	忻州市	0.632	0.244	0.530	0.710	0.496	0.561	1.074	1.000	0.578	0.611
	平均值	0.937	0.775	0.732	0.791	0.681	0.650	0.680	0.867	0.705	0.744
晋中	太原市	1.700	1.658	1.616	1.602	1.461	1.441	1.544	1.487	1.388	1.556
	阳泉市	0.582	0.471	0.837	0.699	0.577	0.417	0.293	0.358	0.445	0.507
	晋中市	0.334	0.367	0.481	0.468	0.556	0.752	0.817	0.756	0.804	0.572
	吕梁市	0.134	0.150	0.279	0.186	0.212	0.178	0.177	0.320	0.376	0.207
	平均值	0.687	0.661	0.803	0.739	0.701	0.697	0.708	0.730	0.753	0.711
晋南	运城市	0.246	0.185	0.452	0.238	0.291	0.239	0.295	0.408	0.429	0.293
	临汾市	0.230	0.245	0.277	0.404	0.303	0.266	0.324	0.369	0.350	0.302
	平均值	0.238	0.215	0.364	0.321	0.297	0.253	0.310	0.389	0.389	0.297
晋东南	长治市	0.356	0.339	0.583	1.154	1.007	0.554	0.862	1.051	1.053	0.767
	晋城市	0.293	1.023	1.098	0.759	1.069	1.734	1.038	1.041	1.047	1.051
	平均值	0.324	0.681	0.840	0.956	1.038	1.144	0.950	1.046	1.050	0.909
均值		0.608	0.615	0.711	0.717	0.684	0.685	0.672	0.763	0.728	0.681

空间滞后	效率类型	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	观测值
无	Ⅰ	0.7727	0.2045	0.0227	0.0000	44
	Ⅱ	0.1282	0.6154	0.2308	0.0256	39
	Ⅲ	0.0238	0.1667	0.6429	0.1667	42
	Ⅳ	0.0000	0.0250	0.1250	0.8500	40
Ⅰ	Ⅰ	0.6667	0.0000	0.3333	0.0000	3
	Ⅱ	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	1
	Ⅲ	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000	1
	Ⅳ	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000	2
Ⅱ	Ⅰ	1.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	4
	Ⅱ	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	1
	Ⅲ	0.0000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000	4
	Ⅳ	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.8750	24
Ⅲ	Ⅰ	0.7778	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	36
	Ⅱ	0.1471	0.6176	0.2059	0.0294	34
	Ⅲ	0.0270	0.1622	0.7027	0.1081	37
	Ⅳ	0.0000	0.0714	0.1429	0.7857	14
Ⅳ	Ⅰ	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.0000	1
	Ⅱ	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.0000	3
	Ⅲ	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0
	Ⅳ	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0