基于PSR模型的新疆水资源经济生态韧性时空差异及影响因素分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.155

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以新疆干旱区14个地州为例，基于压力-状态-响应（PSR）模型构建评价指标体系，运用熵权法计算指标权重，采用综合评价法和核密度分析14个地州压力-状态-响应韧性的时空分布特征，借助地理探测器对新疆水资源经济生态韧性的主要影响因子及因子交互作用进行探测。结果表明：（1） 2010—2020年新疆各地州压力韧性评价指数多数呈现下降的趋势，其中克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州的压力韧性水平由高度韧性降为中等韧性。状态韧性、响应韧性、综合韧性均呈现不断增强的趋势，韧性水平也有所提升。（2） 2010—2020年新疆各地州压力-状态-响应韧性核密度空间上呈现高低交错分布的格局，且西南部高于东北部。从3个维度来看，压力韧性核密度高值区由西南部向中部蔓延，分布较集聚；状态韧性和响应韧性核密度高值区由北部向南部蔓延，分布较分散。2020年，区域内综合韧性、状态韧性、响应韧性核密度差异呈不断缩小的趋势，压力韧性核密度空间差异较显著。（3）产业结构、人均GDP、生态自净能力影响因子对水资源经济生态韧性的影响力有所增强，人为灾害等因素有所减弱。产业结构、生态自净能力、社会消费品零售额等影响因子的交互作用强于单因素对系统韧性的影响力，各影响因子两两之间的交互作用中非线性增强关系数量大于双因子增强数量。

关键词: PSR模型, 核密度, 地理探测法, 新疆

Abstract:

This study employs the entropy weight method to determine index weights, utilizing the comprehensive evaluation method and kernel density to assess the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of pressure-state-response resilience in 14 prefectures within the Xinjiang arid zone of China. In addition, geographic detectors are used to analyze the main influencing factors and factor interactions affecting the economic and ecological resilience of water. The findings reveal the following trends: (1) Stress resilience evaluation indices for Xinjiang prefectures generally decline from 2010 to 2020. Specifically, Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture experiences a shift from high resilience to moderate resilience. Conversely, state resilience, response resilience, and comprehensive resilience exhibit an increasing trend, reflecting an overall improvement in resilience levels. (2) The spatial distribution of pressure-state-response resilience kernel density across all Xinjiang prefectures from 2010 to 2020 displays a staggered pattern, with higher values concentrated in the southwest compared to the northeast. Analyzing the three dimensions reveals a concentrated distribution of high-pressure resilience kernel density moving from the southwest to the central region. Meanwhile, high state resilience and response resilience kernel densities progress from the northeast to the southwest, displaying a more dispersed distribution. Toward the end of the study period, comprehensive resilience, state resilience, and response resilience kernel densities exhibit a decreasing trend, while spatial differences in pressure resilience kernel densities become more pronounced. (3) The influence of industrial structure, GDP per capita, and ecological self-purification capacity on water resources’ economic and ecological resilience has intensified, while the impact of man-made disasters and other factors has weakened. Interactions among industrial structure, ecological self-cleaning capacity, and retail sales of social consumer goods are more influential than individual factors in shaping system resilience. Notably, the number of nonlinear enhancement relationships in factor pairs surpasses the number of two-factor enhancements.

Key words: PSR model, kernel density, geographic exploration method, Xinjiang

孙宇, 刘维忠, 盛洋. 基于PSR模型的新疆水资源经济生态韧性时空差异及影响因素分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(12): 2017-2028.

SUN Yu, LIU Weizhong, SHENG Yang. Spatiotemporal differences and influencing factors of economic and ecological resilience of water resources in Xinjiang based on the PSR model[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(12): 2017-2028.

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目标层	准则层	要素层	指标层	权重
水资源经济生态系统韧性	压力韧性	自然灾害	降水量/mm	0.086
		自然灾害	城市近源地震等效等级	0.237
		人为灾害	工业废水排放量/10⁸ t	0.072
			生活污水排放量/10⁸ t	0.166
			工业SO₂排放量/mg·m^-3	0.131
			工业NO₂排放量/mg·m^-3	0.051
			工业固体废弃物生产量/10⁴ t	0.122
			化肥施用强度/kg·hm^-2	0.136
	状态韧性	水资源状态	地表水/10⁸ m³	0.031
			地下水/10⁸ m³	0.026
			水资源总量/10⁸ m³	0.031
			产水模数/10⁴ m³·km^-2	0.029
			人均水资源量/m³·人^-1	0.035
			农业用水占比/%	0.018
			工业用水占比/%	0.031
			人均用水量/m³·人^-1	0.076
			供水量/10⁸ m³	0.040
		经济状态	第一产业占比/%	0.031
			第二产业占比/%	0.034
			第三产业占比/%	0.041
			人均GDP/10⁴元·人^-1	0.024
			社会消费品零售额/10⁴元	0.034
			进出口贸易总额/10⁴ USD	0.086
			固定资产投资额/10⁴元	0.051
		生态状态	湿地面积占比/%	0.126
			人均公园绿地面积/m²·人^-1	0.069
			建成区绿化覆盖率/%	0.019
			森林覆盖率/%	0.021
			水土流失治理面积/km²	0.076
			旱地面积占比/%	0.070
	响应韧性	恢复能力	万元GDP废水排放量/m³·(10⁴元)^-1	0.045
			环境治理投资/10⁴元	0.062
			生态用水占比/%	0.103
			城市生活垃圾处理率/%	0.053
			城市污水处理率/%	0.076
			GDP增长率/%	0.108
			财政收入/10⁴元	0.041
		适应能力	R&D经费支出占比/10⁴元	0.077
		适应能力	万人发明专利占有量/件	0.434

判断依据	交互作用
q(X1∩X2)<min[q(X1), q(X2)]	非线性减弱
min[q(X1), q(X2)]<q(X1∩X2)<max[q(X1), q(X2)]	单因子非线性减弱
q(X1∩X2)>max[q(X1), q(X2)]	双因子增强
q(X1∩X2)=q(X1)+q(X2)	独立
q(X1∩X2)>q(X1)+q(X2)	非线性增强

研究区域	压力韧性			状态韧性			响应韧性			压力-状态-响应综合韧性
研究区域	2010年	2015年	2020年	2010年	2015年	2020年	2010年	2015年	2020年	2010年	2015年	2020年
乌鲁木齐市	0.123	0.338	0.242	0.224	0.512	0.579	0.270	0.658	0.946	0.205	0.502	0.589
克拉玛依市	0.212	0.248	0.842	0.381	0.363	0.274	0.432	0.476	0.406	0.342	0.362	0.507
吐鲁番市	0.369	0.753	0.185	0.309	0.429	0.378	0.132	0.385	0.754	0.270	0.523	0.439
哈密市	0.358	0.346	0.225	0.372	0.356	0.301	0.255	0.313	0.835	0.328	0.338	0.454
昌吉回族自治州	0.276	0.313	0.306	0.445	0.456	0.463	0.242	0.397	0.663	0.321	0.388	0.477
博尔塔拉蒙古自治州	0.393	0.248	0.188	0.305	0.288	0.506	0.290	0.512	0.659	0.329	0.349	0.451
巴音郭楞蒙古自治州	0.480	0.274	0.174	0.327	0.336	0.437	0.345	0.244	0.482	0.384	0.285	0.364
阿克苏地区	0.496	0.337	0.636	0.314	0.278	0.673	0.492	0.169	0.701	0.434	0.261	0.670
克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州	0.851	0.491	0.486	0.365	0.269	0.648	0.256	0.355	0.790	0.490	0.372	0.641
喀什地区	0.643	0.302	0.505	0.277	0.244	0.676	0.123	0.625	0.786	0.347	0.391	0.656
和田地区	0.472	0.658	0.795	0.352	0.335	0.655	0.189	0.407	0.918	0.337	0.467	0.789
伊犁哈萨克自治州直属县市	0.428	0.314	0.746	0.322	0.351	0.576	0.099	0.423	0.751	0.283	0.362	0.691
塔城地区	0.376	0.772	0.228	0.517	0.422	0.493	0.288	0.350	0.713	0.394	0.514	0.478
阿勒泰地区	0.459	0.116	0.200	0.374	0.550	0.575	0.326	0.316	0.536	0.386	0.327	0.437