新疆洪水预报预警中融雪径流模型应用进展

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.153

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对全球变化背景下极端升温、暴雪和暖湿化现象以及中国新疆地区融雪洪水灾害风险增大问题，概述了新疆不同类型洪水灾害特征，重点阐述了近年发生频率增加、致灾性强、灾害风险增大，但在新疆未引起重视的融雪洪水的研究进展，对比分析了不同类型融雪径流模型特点和研究现状。综合目前融雪径流模型已有进展和面临的挑战，提出新疆未来研究需考虑融雪径流模型的物理机制和融雪消融过程，以提高预报预警精度。回顾了融雪洪水在新疆的预报预警技术，指出构建高精度预报预警融雪洪水模型所面临的风吹雪、冻土表层雪和雪面雨等关键问题，并提出提升新疆洪水模拟、预报预警、应对突发洪水的综合能力的关键技术，为提升新疆融水洪水预报预警技术提供思路与建议。

关键词: 融雪洪水, 融雪模型, 洪水预报, 新疆

Abstract:

This study examines various flood disaster types in Xinjiang, China, encompassing extreme temperature fluctuations, snowstorms, and warm, humid conditions attributed to global climate change. This study focuses on the underexplored issue of snowmelt floods, addressing their escalating frequency, severity, and associated disaster risk in Xinjiang. Using VOSviewer software, this study analyzes the research keywords and collaboration networks among different authors investigating snowmelt floods in Xinjiang. In addition, it scrutinizes the research priorities of scholars at various stages. A comparative analysis of the characteristics and research status of diverse snowmelt runoff models is presented. The study advocates for future research in Xinjiang to delve into the physical mechanisms and snowmelt processes integral to snowmelt runoff models, aiming to enhance prediction and warning accuracy. An assessment of the technologies employed for predicting and warning snowmelt floods in Xinjiang is conducted, highlighting pertinent issues such as wind-blown snow, frozen ground surface snow, and rain-on-snow. Furthermore, the study recommends key technologies to augment the overall capability of flood simulation, prediction, warning, and response to abrupt floods. It also explores strategies for optimizing the use of flood resources. In conclusion, this study furnishes recommendations for refining the prediction and warning technology pertinent to snowmelt floods in Xinjiang.

Key words: snowmelt flood, snowmelt model, flood forecast, Xinjiang

余其鹰, 胡彩虹, 白云岗, 卢震林, 曹彪, 刘富余, 刘成帅. 新疆洪水预报预警中融雪径流模型应用进展[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(12): 1951-1962.

YU Qiying, HU Caihong, BAI Yungang, LU Zhenlin, CAO Biao, LIU Fuyu, LIU Chengshuai. Application of snowmelt runoff model in flood forecasting and warning in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(12): 1951-1962.

图/表 5

图1

表1

图2

图3

图4

参考文献 81

[1]	方建, 杜鹃, 徐伟, 等. 气候变化对洪水灾害影响研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(9): 1085-1093. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.09.1085
	[Fang Jian, Du Juan, Xu Wei, et al. Advances in the study of climate change impacts on flood disaster[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2014, 29(9): 1085-1093.] doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.09.1085
[2]	Chen A F, Giese M, Chen D L. Flood impact on mainland Southeast Asia between 1985 and 2018: The role of tropical cyclones[J]. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 2020, 13(2): e12598, doi: 10.1111/jfr3.12598.
[3]	Hallegatte S, Green C, Nicholls R J, et al. Future flood losses in major coastal cities[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2013, 3(9): 802-806. doi: 10.1038/nclimate1979
[4]	万新宇, 王光谦. 近60年中国典型洪水灾害与防洪减灾对策[J]. 人民黄河, 2011, 33(8): 1-4.
	[Wan Xinyu, Wang Guangqian. Typical flood disasters during last sixty years and strategies of flood control and disaster mitigation in China[J]. Yellow River, 2011, 33(8): 1-4.]
[5]	周莉荔. 塔里木河流域水资源市场配置研究[D]. 乌鲁木齐: 新疆农业大学, 2010.
	[Zhou Lili. Study on water resource market allocation in Tarim River Basin[D]. Urumqi: Xinjiang Agricultural University, 2010.]
[6]	陈亚宁, 李稚, 方功焕. 中亚天山地区关键水文要素变化与水循环研究进展[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(1): 1-8.
	[Chen Yaning, Li Zhi, Fang Gonghuan. Changes of key hydrological elements and research progress of water cycle in the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(1): 1-8.]
[7]	赵琴, 郝晓华, 和栋材, 等. 1980—2019年北疆积雪时空变化与气候和植被的关系[J]. 遥感技术与应用, 2021, 36(6): 1247-1258.
	[Zhao Qin, Hao Xiaohua, He Dongcai, et al. The relationship between the temporal and spatial changes of snow cover and climate and vegetation in northern Xinjiang from 1980 to 2019[J]. Remote Sensing Technology and Application, 2021, 36(6): 1247-1258.]
[8]	吴素芬, 刘志辉, 邱建华, 等. 北疆地区融雪洪水及其前期气候积雪特征分析[J]. 水文, 2006, 26(6): 90-93.
	[Wu Sufen, Liu Zhihui, Qiu Jianhua, et al. Analysis of snowmelt flood and its pre-climatic snow cover characteristics in northern Xinjiang[J]. Journal of China Hydrology, 2006, 26(6): 90-93.]
[9]	周刚, 崔曼仪, 李哲, 等. 新疆春季融雪洪水危险性动态评价研究[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(4): 950-960.
	[Zhou Gang, Cui Manyi, Li Zhe, et al. Dynamic evaluation of the risk of the spring snowmelt flood in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(4): 950-960.]
[10]	徐羹慧, 陆帼英. 21世纪前期新疆洪旱灾害防灾减灾对策研究[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2007, 1(5): 54-58.
	[Xu Genghui, Lu Guoying. Research on disaster prevention and mitigation countermeasures for flood and drought disasters in Xinjiang in the early 21^st century[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 2007, 1(5): 54-58.]
[11]	李燕. 近40 a来新疆河流洪水变化[J]. 冰川冻土, 2003, 25(3): 342-346.
	[Li Yan. Change of river flood and disaster in Xinjiang during past 40 years[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2003, 25(3): 342-346.]
[12]	杨金明, 李诚志, 房世峰, 等. 新疆地区季节性融雪洪水模拟与预报研究[J]. 新疆大学学报(自然科学版), 2019, 36(1): 80-88.
	[Yang Jinming, Li Chengzhi, Fang Shifeng, et al. A review of seasonal snow-melt flood simulation and forecast in Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Xinjiang University (Natural Science Edition), 2019, 36(1): 80-88.]
[13]	麻军. 2000年与1999年新疆特大混合型洪水的气象成因对比分析[J]. 新疆气象, 2004(6): 7-9.
	[Ma Jun. The Comparison and analysis of the meteorological factors contributed to two catastropic mixed floods in Xinjiang[J]. Xinjiang Meteorology, 2004(6): 7-9.]
[14]	张智超. 新疆头屯河流域洪水特性分析[J]. 水利科技与经济, 2015, 21(2): 92-94.
	[Zhang Zhichao. Study on flood characteristics of Toutun River Basin of Xinjiang[J]. Water Conservancy Science Technology and Economy, 2015, 21(2): 92-94.]
[15]	殷剑虹, 王翔. 伊犁河谷春夏季极端天气气候的变化分析[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2009, 3(6): 26-28.
	[Yin Jianhong, Wang Xiang. Extreme weather and climate over Yili Valley in spring and summer[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 2009, 3(6): 26-28.]
[16]	谢泽明, 周玉淑, 杨莲梅. 新疆降水研究进展综述[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2018, 37(3): 204-211.
	[Xie Zeming, Zhou Yushu, Yang Lianmei. Review of study on precipitation in Xinjiang[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2018, 37(3): 204-211.]
[17]	毛炜峄, 樊静, 沈永平, 等. 近50 a来新疆区域与天山典型流域极端洪水变化特征及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 34(5): 1037-1046.
	[Mao Weiyi, Fan Jing, Shen Yongping, et al. Variations of extreme flood of the rivers in Xinjiang region and some typical watersheds from Tianshan Mountains and their response to climate change in recent 50 years[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012, 34(5): 1037-1046.]
[18]	赵勇, 邓学良, 李秦, 等. 天山地区夏季极端降水特征及气候变化[J]. 冰川冻土, 2010, 32(5): 927-934.
	[Zhao Yong, Deng Xueliang, Li Qin, et al. Characteristics of the extreme precipitation events in the Tianshan Mountains in relation to climate change[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2010, 32(5): 927-934.]
[19]	温克刚. 中国气象灾害大典(新疆卷)[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2006: 26-100.
	[Wen Kegang. China meteorological disasters (Xinjiang Volume)[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2006: 26-100.]
[20]	马永红. 浅谈新疆主要河流洪水类型及变差系数C_v特征[J]. 地下水, 2018, 40(2): 171-173.
	[Ma Yonghong. Discussion on the flood types and characteristics of C_v of major rivers in Xinjiang[J]. Ground Water, 2018, 40(2): 171-173.]
[21]	陈亚宁, 王志超. 四棵树河突发性洪水预测预报初探[J]. 干旱区研究, 1999, 22(4): 14-21.
	[Chen Yaning, Wang Zhichao. A preliminary study on the prediction and forecasting of sudden floods in the Four Trees River[J]. Arid Zone Research, 1999, 22(4): 14-21.]
[22]	王润, 高前兆. 塔里木河流域突发性洪水初步研究[J]. 地理科学, 1996, 16(2): 144-149.
	[Wang Run, Gao Qianzhao. A preliminary study on the sudden flood in Tarim River Basin[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 1996, 16(2): 144-149.]
[23]	陈亚宁, 杨思全, 李卫红. 天山麦兹巴赫冰川湖突发性洪水分形特征研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 1999, 21(3): 253-256.
	[Chen Yaning, Yang Siquan, Li Weihong. Study on water pattern characteristics of sudden flood in Mezbach Glacier Lake, Tianshan Mountains[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 1999, 21(3): 253-256.]
[24]	串丽敏, 郑怀国, 赵同科, 等. 基于Web of Science数据库的土壤污染修复领域发展态势分析[J]. 农业环境科学学报, 2016, 35(1): 12-20.
	[Chuan Limin, Zheng Huaiguo, Zhao Tongke, et al. Trends in research on contaminated soil remediation based on Web of Science database[J]. Journal of Agro-Environment Science, 2016, 35(1): 12-20.]
[25]	谷爱莲. 石河子春季融雪型洪水的气候因素及其预报[J]. 新疆气象, 1987(8): 18-21.
	[Gu Ailian. Climatic factors and forecast of snowmelt flood in Shihezi in spring[J]. Xinjiang Meteorology, 1987(8): 18-21.]
[26]	梁春成, 杨乃康, 陈亚宁. 天山宁家河春季融雪洪水成因初探[J]. 干旱区地理, 1993, 16(3): 75-79.
	[Liang Chuncheng, Yang Naikang, Chen Yaning. A preliminary study on snow melt flood of Ningjia River, Tianshan Mountains[J]. Arid Land Geography, 1993, 16(3): 75-79.]
[27]	俞永旺, 徐冰, 白东明, 等. 天山北坡雀尔沟河春季融雪洪水的成因分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 1995, 18(3): 15-20.
	[Yu Yongwang, Xu Bing, Bai Dongming, et al. Analysis on the causes of spring melted flood in Quergou River[J]. Arid Zone Research, 1995, 18(3): 15-20.]
[28]	仇家琪, 徐俊荣, 陈亚宁, 等. 天山北坡春季雪洪形成的气候因子分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 1995, 18(1): 43-50.
	[Qiu Jiaqi, Xu Junrong, Chen Yaning, et al. Preliminary evaluation on climatic factors related to spring snowmelt floods[J]. Arid Land Geography, 1995, 18(1): 43-50.]
[29]	Aizen V B, Aizen E M, Melack J M. Precipitation, melt and runoff in the northern Tien Shan[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 1996, 186(1-4): 229-251. doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(96)03022-3
[30]	隗经斌. 新疆军塘湖河典型融雪洪水过程研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2006, 28(4): 530-534.
	[Wei Jingbin. Snowmelt floods of the Juntanghu River in Xinjiang region[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2006, 28(4): 530-534.]
[31]	王志杰, 迪里木拉提, 李从林. 天山北麓低山丘陵地区春季融雪洪水的研究——以三工河古河道为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2002, 25(4): 302-308.
	[Wang Zhijie, Dilimulat, Li Conglin. Study on the spring floods caused by snow melt water in low-mountain and hill regions of northern piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains: A case study in the paleochannels of Sangong River[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2002, 25(4): 302-308.]
[32]	董开发. 基于WebGIS的融雪洪水信息发布管理系统[D]. 乌鲁木齐: 新疆大学, 2005.
	[Dong Kaifa. Snowmelt flood information release management system based on WebGIS[D]. Urumqi: Xinjiang University, 2005.]
[33]	李根. 基于Web的融雪地区水库预报调度研究[D]. 乌鲁木齐: 新疆农业大学, 2006.
	[Li Gen. Web-based reservoir forecasting regulation system research in snowmelt area[D]. Urumqi: Xinjiang Agricultural University, 2006.]
[34]	覃新闻, 李智录, 李波. 基于偏最小二乘回归的融雪型洪水预报模型[J]. 水文, 2006, 26(5): 38-40.
	[Qin Xinwen, Li Zhilu, Li Bo. Snow melting flood forecast model based on partial least-squares regression[J]. Journal of China Hydrology, 2006, 26(5): 38-40.]
[35]	刘永强, 刘志辉. 新疆融雪洪水预警决策支持系统研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2007, 21(2): 110-113.
	[Liu Yongqiang, Liu Zhihui. Development about decision support system for snowmelt flood prediction of Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2007, 21(2): 110-113.]
[36]	刘永强. 新疆融雪洪水预警DSS关键技术及实现方式研究[D]. 乌鲁木齐: 新疆大学, 2007.
	[Liu Yongqiang. Research on key technologies and implementation methods of DSS for snowmelt flood warning in Xinjiang[D]. Urumqi: Xinjiang University, 2007.]
[37]	刘志辉. 基于“3S”技术的新疆融雪洪水预测预警及决策支持研究[D]. 徐州: 中国矿业大学, 2009.
	[Liu Zhihui. The prediction, early-warning for snowmelt flood and decision support based on “3S” technology in Xinjiang[D]. Xuzhou: China University of Mining and Technology, 2009.]
[38]	李智录, 高杰, 沈冰, 等. 基于神经网络的灌区融雪型河源来水预报模型[J]. 农业工程学报, 2006, 22(4): 66-69.
	[Li Zhilu, Gao Jie, Shen Bing, et al. Neural network model for predicting snow melting headwater inflow in irrigation areas[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2006, 22(4): 66-69.]
[39]	Xue H Z, Wang J D, Xiao Z Q, et al. Combining MODIS and AMSR-E observations to improve MCD43A3 short-time snow-covered Albedo estimation[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2014, 28(3): 570-580. doi: 10.1002/hyp.v28.3
[40]	赵求东, 刘志辉, 房世峰, 等. 基于EOS/MODIS遥感数据改进式融雪模型[J]. 干旱区地理, 2007, 30(6): 915-920.
	[Zhao Qiudong, Liu Zhihui, Fang Shifeng, et al. Improved snowmelt model based on EOS/MODIS remote sensing data[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2007, 30(6): 915-920.]
[41]	裴欢, 房世峰, 刘志辉, 等. 分布式融雪径流模型的设计及应用[J]. 资源科学, 2008, 30(3): 454-459.
	[Pei Huan, Fang Shifeng, Liu Zhihui, et al. Design and application of distributed snowmelt-runoff[J]. Resources Science, 2008, 30(3): 454-459.]
[42]	乔鹏, 秦艳, 刘志辉. 基于能量平衡的分布式融雪径流模型[J]. 水文, 2011, 31(3): 22-26.
	[Qiao Peng, Qin Yan, Liu Zhihui. A spatially distributed snowmelt model based on energy balance[J]. Journal of China Hydrology, 2011, 31(3): 22-26.]
[43]	房世峰, 裴欢, 刘志辉, 等. 遥感和GIS支持下的分布式融雪径流过程模拟研究[J]. 遥感学报, 2008, 12(4): 655-662.
	[Fang Shifeng, Pei Huan, Liu Zhihui, et al. Study on the distributed snowmelt runoff process based on RS and GIS[J]. National Remote Sensing Bulletin, 2008, 12(4): 655-662.]
[44]	孙铭悦, 吕海深, 朱永华, 等. 2套气象数据在资料缺乏地区的适用性评估——以呼图壁河流域为例[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(1): 94-103.
	[Sun Mingyue, Lü Haishen, Zhu Yonghua, et al. Applicability assessment of two meteorological datasets in areas lacking data with the Hutubi River Basin as an example[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(1): 94-103.]
[45]	李兰海, 尚明, 张敏生, 等. APHRODITE降水数据驱动的融雪径流模拟[J]. 水科学进展, 2014, 25(1): 53-59.
	[Li Lanhai, Shang Ming, Zhang Minsheng, et al. Snowmelt runoff simulation driven by APHRODITE precipitation dataset[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2014, 25(1): 53-59.]
[46]	王靖文, 唐志光, 邓刚, 等. 1991—2021年天山融雪末期雪线高度遥感监测研究[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(5): 1385-1397.
	[Wang Jingwen, Tang Zhigugang, Deng Gang, et al. Monitoring of snowline altitude at the end of melting season in Tianshan Mountains from 1991 to 2021[J] Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(5): 1385-1397.]
[47]	Leisenring M, Moradkhani H. Snow water equivalent prediction using Bayesian data assimilation methods[J]. Stochastic Enviormental Research and Risk Assessment, 2011, 25(2): 253-270.
[48]	Ring D R, Calcote V R, Cooper J N, et al. Generalization and application of a degree-day model predicting pecan nut casebearer (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) activity[J]. Environmental Entomology, 1983, 76(4): 831-835.
[49]	Oerlemans J, Anderson B, Hubbard A, et al. Modelling the response of glaciers to climate warming[J]. Climate Dynamics, 1998, 14(4): 267-274. doi: 10.1007/s003820050222
[50]	Fischer A. Glaciers and climate change: Interpretation of 50 years of direct mass balance of Hintereisferner[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2010, 71(2): 13-26. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.11.014
[51]	陈飞, 蔡强国, 孙莉英. 青藏高原纳木错流域冰雪融水径流量估算[J]. 中国水土保持科学, 2016, 14(2): 127-136.
	[Chen Fei, Cai Qiangguo, Sun Liying. Estimation of meltwater runoff from glaciers and snow cover in Nam Co Basin, Tibetan Plateau[J]. Science of Soil and Water Conservation, 2016, 14(2): 127-136.]
[52]	周峰, 覃姗, 岳春芳, 等. 基于SRM模型的金沟河流域融雪径流模拟[J]. 中国水利水电科学研究院学报, 2020, 18(5): 395-400.
	[Zhou Feng, Qin Shan, Yue Chunfang, et al. Simulation of snowmelt runoff in Jingou River Basin based on SRM model[J]. Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, 2020, 18(5): 395-400.]
[53]	李霖. HBV水文预报模型及与之集成的水文模型系统介绍[J]. 水利水文自动化, 2004(2): 39-42.
	[Li Lin. HBV hydrological forecast model and its integrative system[J]. Automation in Water Conservancy and Hydrology, 2004(2): 39-42.]
[54]	陈心池, 张利平, 陈少丹, 等. SRM融雪径流模型在奎屯河流域洪水预报的应用[J]. 南水北调与水利科技, 2018, 16(1): 50-56.
	[Chen Xinchi, Zhang Liping, Chen Shaodan, et al. Snowmelt runoff model applied in Kuitun River catchment for flood forecasting[J]. South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology, 2018, 16(1): 50-56.]
[55]	Richard B, Marcel P, Jean S, et al. Application of a snow cover energy and mass balance model in a balsam fir forest[J]. Water Resources Research, 1990, 26(5): 1079-1092. doi: 10.1029/WR026i005p01079
[56]	Mcmichael C E, Hope A S, Loaiciga H A. Distributed hydrological modelling in California semi-arid shrublands: MIKE SHE model calibration and uncertainty estimation[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2006, 317(3): 307-324. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.05.023
[57]	王中根, 刘昌明, 黄友波. SWAT模型的原理、结构及应用研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2003, 22(1): 79-86. doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2003.01.010
	[Wang Zhonggen, Liu Changming, Huang Youbo. The theory of SWAT model and its application in Heihe Basin[J]. Progress in Geography, 2003, 22(1): 79-86.] doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2003.01.010
[58]	Dang S Z, Liu C M. Modification of SNTHERM albedo algorithm and response from black carbon in snow[J]. Advanced Materials Research, 2011, 281: 147-150. doi: 10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.281
[59]	Bartelt P, Lehning M. A physical SNOWPACK model for the Swiss avalanche warning: Part I: Numerical model[J]. Cold Regions Science and Technology, 2002, 35(3): 123-145. doi: 10.1016/S0165-232X(02)00074-5
[60]	Vafakhah M, Sedighi F, Javadi M R. Modeling the rainfall-runoff data in snow-affected watershed[J]. International Journal of Computer and Electrical Engineering, 2014, 6(1): 40-43.
[61]	Thapa S. Snowmelt-driven streamflow prediction using machine learning techniques (LSTM, NARX, GPR, and SVR)[J]. Water, 2020, 12(6): 1734, doi: 10.3390/w12061734.
[62]	Sharma V, Yuden K. Imputing missing data in hydrology using machine learning models[J]. International Journal of Engineering and Technical Research, 2021, 10(1): 78-82.
[63]	Hou J, Huang C, Zhang Y, et al. Gap-filling of MODIS fractional snow cover products via non-local spatio-temporal filtering based on machine learning techniques[J]. Remote Sensing, 2019, 11(1): 90, doi: 10.3390/rs11010090.
[64]	Musselman K N, Flavio L, Kyoko I, et al. Projected increases and shifts in rain-on-snow flood risk over western North America[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2018, 8: 808-816. doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0236-4
[65]	Demeritt D, Nobert S, Cloke H L, et al. The European flood alert system and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2013, 27(1): 147-157. doi: 10.1002/hyp.v27.1
[66]	Mori N, Hirakuchi H. Skill and relative econmic value of ensemble ocean wave prediction[J]. Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshu, 2010(768): 167-177.
[67]	Gelfan A, Moreydo V, Motovilov Y, et al. Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2018, 22(4): 1-28.
[68]	Azam M, San H, Seung K, et al. Development of flood alert application in Mushim Stream Watershed Korea[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2017, 21: 11-26. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.11.008
[69]	刘志辉. 流域供水管理决策支持系统总体设计[J]. 干旱区地理, 2000, 23(3): 259-263.
	[Liu Zhihui. Desicion support system for water supply management in drainage basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2000, 23(3): 259-263.]
[70]	马俊英, 刘志辉. 新疆干旱区流域防洪决策支持系统规划设计[J]. 新疆大学学报(自然科学版), 2002(3): 354-357.
	[Ma Junying, Liu Zhihui. The plan of controlling flood decision support system in Xinjiang arid area[J]. Journal of Xinjiang University (Natural Science Edition), 2002(3): 354-357.]
[71]	闫彦, 刘志辉, 叶朝霞. 新疆北疆地区融雪洪水灾害预警模型的建立与验证[J]. 干旱区地理, 2009, 32(4): 554-557.
	[Yan Yan, Liu Zhihui, Ye Zhaoxia. Establishment and verification of early-warning model snowmelt flood in northern Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2009, 32(4): 554-557.]
[72]	Fang S F, Xu L D, Zhu Y Q, et al. An integrated information system for snowmelt flood early-warning based on internet of things[J]. Information Systems Frontiers, 2015, 17(2): 321-335. doi: 10.1007/s10796-013-9466-1
[73]	Liu D, Zhong S B, Huang Q Y. Study on risk assessment framework for snowmelt flood and hydro-network extraction from watersheds[C]//Bian F L, Xie Y C. Geo-Informatics In Resource Management and Sustainable Ecosystem:Third International Conference, GRMSE 2015. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer, 2016.
[74]	王大环, 刘洋, 刘志辉, 等. 基于熵权的模糊聚类模型在山区融雪洪水产流类型中的分类应用[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2017(5): 114-117.
	[Wang Dahuan, Liu Yang, Liu Zhihui, et al. Flood-type classification in mountainous catchments using fuzzy C-means algorithm classification based on entropy weight[J]. China Rural Water and Hydropower, 2017(5): 114-117, 123.]
[75]	陈伏龙, 张婷, 冯平, 等. 融雪洪水跳跃变异对其参数估计不确定性影响分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(5): 1004-1015.
	[Chen Fulong, Zhang Ting, Feng Ping, et al. Impact of jump up components on the uncertainties of parameters estimation in snowmelt flood sequences[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2018, 40(5): 1004-1015.]
[76]	Zhou J, Pomeroy J W, Zhang W, et al. Simulating cold regions hydrological processes using a modular model in the west of China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2014, 509: 13-24. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.11.013
[77]	Pomeroy J W, Gray D M, Landine P G. The prairie blowing snow model: Characteristics, validation, operation[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 1993, 144(1-4): 165-192. doi: 10.1016/0022-1694(93)90171-5
[78]	Lehning M, Voelksch I, Gustafsson D, et al. ALPINE3D: A detailed model of mountain surface processes and its application to snow hydrology[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2006, 20(10): 2111-2128. doi: 10.1002/hyp.v20:10
[79]	Luo L, Robock A, Vinnikov K Y, et al. Effects of frozen soil on soil temperature, spring infiltration, and runoff: Results from the PILPS 2(d) experiment at Valdai, Russia[J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2003, 4(2): 334-351. doi: 10.1175/1525-7541(2003)4<334:EOFSOS>2.0.CO;2
[80]	Yamazaki Y, Kubota J, Ohata T, et al. Seasonal changes in runoff characteristics on a permafrost watershed in the southern mountainous region of eastern Siberia[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2010, 20(3): 453-467. doi: 10.1002/hyp.v20:3
[81]	Li D, Lettenmaier D P, Margulis S A, et al. The role of rain-on-snow in flooding over the conterminous United States[J]. Water Resources Research, 2019, 55(11): 8492-8513. doi: 10.1029/2019WR024950

洪水类型	发生地区	洪水特征	典型洪水	损失情况
暴雨型洪水	伊犁河谷、塔里木河流域	来势凶猛、突发性强、陡涨陡落、年际变化大、携沙量大、破坏性大	1983年4月、 1989年7月、 2021年7月	民房倒塌，死亡3人；经济损失9×10⁶元；50辆勘探车辆、30000套设备被淹。
融雪型洪水	伊犁河谷、阿尔泰山、天山北坡玛纳斯河、塔里木河流域	变化缓慢、持续时间长、洪量大、洪峰低	2005年3月、 2011年5月、 2021年5月	11×10⁴人受灾，牲畜溺死3736头，农田被淹796 hm²；经济损失超10⁸元；房屋倒塌受损，洪水袭击致100余万人受灾；大量牲畜淹死。
混合型洪水	北疆奎屯市、塔城、天山、昆仑山、喀喇昆仑山	洪水迅猛、突发性强、洪水历时长^[13]，洪峰呈尖瘦，峰量巨大^[14]	1985年3月、 1987年7月、 2009年3月	死亡3人，冲毁农田57.73 hm²、渠道16 km、民房6154 m²；经济损失3×10⁷元；淹没尼勒克县冬小麦超过113.33 hm²。