北方半干旱快速城镇化流域径流变化的驱动因素分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 通过社会经济发展对于流域水文过程产生的影响，分析城镇化流域的径流变化对于水资源管理保护和促进社会经济发展具有重要的作用。利用乌兰木伦河流域1997—2015年的水文气象、土地利用和社会经济等数据，以降水—径流双累积曲线、改进的Mann-Kendall检验和主成分分析等方法从不同时间尺度分析了流域径流、城镇化、气候和社会经济的变化趋势，揭示了气候、社会经济快速发展和城镇化过程对于流域径流的影响，发现了研究区年、季尺度下径流变化的主要驱动因素，并建立与不同时间尺度径流的映射函数关系。结果表明：在鄂尔多斯市快速城镇化影响下，研究区径流深呈现下降趋势，在2005年出现拐点变化； 2005年之后的平均径流深小于之前的平均径流深；降水、蒸发、气温等气候因素没有显著变化趋势，但城镇化面积、GDP和人口明显增加，城镇化为2005年后研究区径流减少的主要驱动因素；城镇化对于枯水季径流的影响更为显著。

关键词: 半干旱流域, 社会经济, 城镇化, 径流, 驱动因素

Abstract: The hydrological process of a watershed influences a lot on the local socioeconomic development.The analysis of runoff change caused by the rapid urbanization on the watershed is of important significance in the management and protection of the local water resource.In this study,based on the land use information from remotely sensed images,the hydrometeorological observation data and the social economy data from 1997 to 2015,the relationship between the influencing factors and the runoff trend in Wulanmulun River watershed was analyzed at different time scale using the improved Mann-Kendall Test and PCA (principal component analysis) method.The results shows as follows:(1) the runoff depth was dramatically decreased,and an inflection point occurred in 2005 which means the average runoff depth after 2005 was smaller than that before 2005 as the rapid urbanization started in 2006.(2) during the whole time period,there was not significant change for a few climate factors,such as the precipitation,evaporation and air temperature.But the urbanization area,the population and GDP had been increased remarkably as a result of the quick urbanization which was the main reason resulting in the decrease of the runoff in the watershed after 2005.(3) the effects of urbanization on the runoff in dry season was more outstanding.

Key words: semiarid watershed, social economy, urbanization, runoff, driving factor

中图分类号:

P333

白勇, 高瑞忠, 王喜喜, 刘廷玺, 王威娜. 北方半干旱快速城镇化流域径流变化的驱动因素分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(2): 282-289.

BAI Yong, GAO Rui-zhong, WANG Xi-xi, LIU Ting-xi, WANG Wei-na. Driving factors on runoff change in the north semiarid rapidly urbanization watershed[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(2): 282-289.

参考文献

[1] 胡珊珊,郑红星,刘昌明,等.气候变化和人类活动对白洋淀上游水源区径流的影响[J].地理学报,2012,67(1):62-69.[HU Shanshan,ZHENG Hongxing,LIU Changmin,et al.Assessing the impacts of climate variability and human activities on stream flow in the water source area of Baiyangdian Lake[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(1):62-69.]
[2] 代稳,吕殿青,李景保,等.气候变化和人类活动对长江中游径流量变化影响分析[J].冰川冻土,2016,38(2):488-497.[DAI Wen,LV Dianqing,LI Jingbao,et al.The effect of climate change and human activities on runoff in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2016,38(2):488-497.]
[3] 刘剑宇,张强,陈喜,等.气候变化和人类活动对中国地表水文过程影响定量研究[J].地理学报,2016,71(11):1875-1885.[LIU Jianyu,ZHANG Qiang,CHEN Xi,et al.Quantitative evaluations of human-and climate-induced impacts on hydrological processes of China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(11):1875-1885.]
[4] 刘春蓁,占车生,夏军,等.关于气候变化与人类活动对径流影响研究的评述[J].水利学报,2014,45(4):379-386.[LIU Chunzhen,ZHAN Chesheng,XIA Jun,et al.Review on the influences of climate change and human activities on runoff[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2014,45(4):379-386.]
[5] 马龙,刘廷玺,马丽,等.气候变化和人类活动对辽河中上游径流变化的贡献[J].冰川冻土,2015,37(2):470-479.[MA Long,LIU Tingxi,MA Li,et al.The effect of climate change and human activities on the runoff in the upper and middle reaches of the Liaohe River,Inner Mongolia[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2015,37(2):470-479.]
[6] 张调风,朱西德,王永剑,等.气候变化和人类活动对湟水河流域径流量影响的定量评估[J].资源科学,2014,36(11):2256- 2262.[ZHANG Tiaofeng,ZHU Xide,WANG Yongjian,et al.The impact of climate variability and human activity on runoff changes in the Huangshui River Basin[J].Resources Science,2014,36(11):2256-2262.]
[7] VERBEIREN B,VOORDE T V D,CANTERS F,et al.Assessing urbanisation effects on rainfall-runoff using a remote sensing supported modelling strategy[J].International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoin formation,2013,21:92-102.
[8] FRANCZYK J,CHANG H.The effects of climate change and urbanization on the runoff of the Rock Creek Basin in the Portland metropolitan area,Oregon,USA[J].Hydrol Process,2009,23:805-815.
[9] WANG S P,ZHANG Z Q,MC VICAR T R,et al.Isolating the impacts of climate change and land use change on decadal streamflow variation:Assessing three complementary approaches[J].Journal of Hydrology,2013,507:63-74.
[10] 王艳君,吕宏军,施雅风,等.城市化流域的土地利用变化对水文过程的影响——以秦淮河流域为例[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(1):30-36.[WANG Yanjun,LV Hongjun,SHI Yafeng,et al.Impacts of land use changes on hydrological processes in an urbanized basin[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2009,24(1):30-36.]
[11] 郑璟,方伟华,史培军,等.快速城市化地区土地利用变化对流域水文过程影响的模拟研究——以深圳市布吉河流域为例[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(9):1560-1572.[ZHENG Jing,FANG Weihua,SHI Peijun,et al.Modeling the impacts of land use change on hydrological processes in fast urbanizing region:A case study of the Buji Watershed in Shenzhen City China[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2009,24(9):1560-1572.]
[12] 史培军,袁艺,陈晋,等.深圳市土地利用变化对流域径流的影响[J].生态学报,2001,21(7):1041-1049.[SHI Peijun,YUAN Yi,CHEN Jin,et al.The effect of land use on runoff in Shenzhen City of China[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2001,21(7):1041-1049.]
[13] 秦莉俐,陈云霞,许有鹏,等.城镇化对径流的长期影响研究[J].南京大学学报(自然科学),2005,41(3):279-285.[QIN Lili,CHEN Yunxia,XU YouPeng,et al.A research of long-term impact on runoff in urbanized areas[J].Journal of Nanjing University(Natural Sciences),2005,41(3):279-285.]
[14] 袁艺,史培军,刘颖慧,等.土地利用变化对城市洪涝灾害的影响[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(3):6-13.[YUAN Yi,SHI Peijun,LIU Yinghui,et al.Impact of land use change on urban flood disaster[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2003,12(3):6-13.]
[15] 高晓薇,刘家宏.深圳河流域城市化对河流水文过程的影响[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2012,48(1):153-159.[GAO Xiaowei,LIU Jiahong.Effect of urbanization on river hydrological process in Shenzhen River Basin[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2012,48(1):153-159.]
[16] 许有鹏,丁瑾佳,陈莹.长江三角洲地区城市化的水文效应研究[J].水利水运工程学报,2009,(4):67-73.[XU Youpeng,DING Jinjia,CHEN Ying.Impacts of urbanization on hydrology in the Yangtze River Delta[J].Hydro-Science and Engineering,2009,(4):67-73.]
[17] 徐光来,许有鹏,徐宏亮.城市化水文效应研究进展[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(12):2171-2178.[XU Guanglai,XU Youpeng,XU Hongliang.Advance in hydrologic process response to urbanization[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2010,25(12):2171-2178.]
[18] XU J X.Sediment flux to the sea as influenced by changing human activities and precipitation:Example of the Yellow River,China[J].Environ Manag,2003,31(3):328-341.
[19] 孙宁,李秀彬,李子君,等.潮河上游土地利用/覆被变化对年径流影响模拟[J].北京林业大学学报,2008,30(2):22-30.[SUN Ning,LI Xiubin,LI Zijun,et al.Simulation of impacts of changes in land use and cover on annual stream flow in the upper reach of Chaohe River Basin[J].Journal of Beijing Forestry University,2008,30(2):22-30.]
[20] GAO P,MU X M,WANG F,et al.Changes in streamflow and sediment discharge and the response to human activities in the middle reaches of the Yellow River[J].Hydrol Earth Syst Sci,2011,15:1-10.
[21] HAMED K H,RAO A R.A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data[J].J Hydrol,1998,204:182-196.
[22] ZHANG Q,SINGH V P,PENG J,et al.Spatial-temporal changes of precipitation structure across the Pearl River Basin,China[J].J Hydrol,2012:440-441,113-122.
[23] 丁晶,邓育仁.随机水文学[M].成都:成都科技大学出版社,1988.[DING Jing,DENG Yuren.Random hydrology[M].Chengdu:Chengdu University of Science and Technology Press,1988.]
[24] 金菊良,丁晶.水资源系统工程[M].成都:四川科学技术出版社,2002.[JIN Juliang,DING Jing.Water resources system engineering[M].Chengdu:Sichuan Science and Technology Press,2002.]
[25] 唐启义.DPS数据处理系统——实验设计、统计分析及模型优化[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.[TANG Qiyi.DPS data processing system-experimental design:Statistical analysis and model optimization[M].Beijing:Science Press,2006.]
[26] DU J K,QIAN L,RUI H Y,et al.Assessing the effects of urbanization on annual runoff and flood events using an integrated hydrological modeling system for Qinhuai River Basin,China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2012,464-465:127-139.