基于SD模型的黄河流域生态环境与社会经济发展可持续性模拟

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2021.401

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

要实现黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展,需解决流域生态环境与社会经济发展的可持续问题。运用系统动力学方法,构建社会、经济、资源与环境4个子系统,设计维持现状、优先发展社会、优先发展经济、优先节约资源、优先保护环境以及协同发展6个情景,在对不同情景进行模拟仿真的基础上,探寻实现黄河流域生态环境与社会经济可持续发展的最优方案。结果表明：在协同发展情景中,黄河流域的社会经济得到较快发展,总人口和国内生产总值（GDP）于2030年将分别增长10.93%和499.05%;资源的使用效率得到提高,单位GDP水耗和能耗于2030将分别下降78.31%和68.16%;污染物的排放量可有效降低,工业化学需氧量（COD）排放量和工业二氧化硫（SO₂）排放量于2030将分别下降80.64%和80.17%。相较于其他情景,协同发展是黄河流域实现生态环境与社会经济可持续发展的最优方案。

关键词: 黄河流域, 生态环境, 社会经济, 可持续发展, 系统动力学模型

Abstract:

To realize ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin of China, it is necessary to solve the sustainability issues of ecological environment and socio-economic development. For sustainable development of the Yellow River Basin, most studies explain the system construction, path, and strategic design of the development from a theoretical perspective. Few scholars conduct numerical simulation on the sustainability of ecological environment and socio-economic development of the Yellow River Basin. However, the empirical research on their sustainable development is still weak. Using the method of system dynamics, this study constructs four subsystems of society, economy, resources, and environment and designs six scenarios maintaining the status quo: giving priority to developing society, developing economy, saving resources, protecting the environment, and collaborative development. Moreover, this study explores the best scheme to achieve the sustainable development of ecological environment and socio-economic in the Yellow River Basin based on the simulation of different scenarios. The results reveal the following: First, in the scenario of collaborative development, the total population, employed population, and gross domestic product (GDP) of the Yellow River Basin will increase by 10.93%, 19.62%, and 499.05%, respectively, the water consumption and energy consumption per unit GDP will decrease by 78.31% and 68.16%, respectively, and the industrial chemical oxygen demand (COD) emission and industrial sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emission will decrease by 80.64% and 80.17%, respectively, in 2030 compared with those in 2007. Second, the total population and GDP maintain an upward trend, wherein the total population growth rates of Scenarios 2 and 6 are higher and the economic growth rates of Scenarios 3 and 6 are higher than those of the other four scenarios. The water and energy consumption per unit GDP show decreasing trends, and the decline rates in Scenarios 4 and 6 are higher than those in the other four scenarios. Furthermore, pollutant emission shows a decreasing trend, wherein the decline rate of industrial COD and SO₂ emissions in Scenarios 5 and 6 are higher than those in the other scenarios. Third, the social economy of the Yellow River Basin has been developed rapidly, the efficiency of resource usage has been improved, and the pollutant emission can be effectively reduced in the scenario of collaborative development. Therefore, Scenario 6 (collaborative development) is the best way to achieve sustainable development of ecological environment and social economy in the Yellow River Basin compared with the other scenarios.

Key words: Yellow River Basin, ecological environment, socio-economic, sustainable development, system dynamics model

王奕淇,李国平. 基于SD模型的黄河流域生态环境与社会经济发展可持续性模拟[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(3): 901-911.

WANG Yiqi,LI Guoping. Sustainable simulation of ecological environment and socio-economic development in the Yellow River Basin based on the SD model[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(3): 901-911.

图/表 6

图1

表1

表2

表3

SD模型的有效性检验结果"

年份	总人口			GDP			总用水量
年份	真实值/10⁴人	仿真值/10⁴人	相对误差/%	真实值/10⁸元	仿真值/10⁸元	相对误差/%	真实值/10⁸ m³	仿真值/10⁸ m³	相对误差/%
2007	40094.0	40058.0	0.09	73977.1	73977.1	0.00	1192.9	1189.4	0.29
2008	40280.0	40094.1	0.46	90068.6	89652.8	0.46	1205.7	1193.2	1.04
2009	40491.0	40278.5	0.52	98618.9	98084.8	0.54	1224.3	1209.6	1.20
2010	40575.0	40487.9	0.21	117604.9	117363.0	0.21	1235.4	1225.5	0.80
2011	40664.0	40573.0	0.22	140222.3	139905.0	0.23	1264.4	1250.4	1.11
2012	40819.0	40662.2	0.38	155817.5	155221.0	0.38	1271.9	1277.1	0.41
2013	40959.0	40816.7	0.35	170631.2	170058.0	0.34	1269.6	1268.0	0.13
2014	41129.0	40955.5	0.42	183015.4	182243.0	0.42	1221.1	1212.7	0.69
2015	41355.0	41127.5	0.55	190796.6	189768.0	0.54	1267.9	1247.0	1.65
2016	41634.0	41353.7	0.67	204950.4	203562.0	0.68	1275.0	1250.9	1.89
2017	41839.0	41630.8	0.50	221218.9	220141.0	0.49	1275.2	1257.3	1.40
年份	能源消费总量			工业COD治理量			工业氨氮治理量
年份	真实值/10⁴ t	仿真值/10⁴ t	相对误差/%	真实值/10⁴ t	仿真值/10⁴ t	相对误差/%	真实值/10⁴ t	仿真值/10⁴ t	相对误差/%
2007	106663.2	96902.7	9.15	435.0	432.9	0.48	15.5	15.4	0.65
2008	112739.2	106662.0	5.39	468.7	465.2	0.75	18.3	18.2	0.55
2009	118673.6	112738.0	5.00	464.1	458.9	1.12	19.9	19.7	1.01
2010	128820.3	118671.0	7.88	476.8	470.5	1.32	31.3	30.9	1.28
2011	140704.0	128816.0	8.45	582.5	576.1	1.10	34.2	33.8	1.17
2012	147961.9	140698.0	4.91	655.9	620.6	5.38	41.4	39.2	5.31
2013	140367.0	147955.0	5.41	581.3	592.8	1.98	39.0	39.7	1.79
2014	145133.0	140358.0	3.29	579.8	572.6	1.24	34.2	33.7	1.46
2015	148083.0	145125.0	2.00	517.3	499.7	3.40	36.5	35.3	3.29
2016	150217.0	148074.0	1.43	419.5	418.8	0.17	43.5	43.4	0.23
2017	153238.0	150209.0	1.98	395.4	381.6	3.49	42.3	40.8	3.55
年份	工业SO₂治理量			工业NO_x治理量			污染治理投资完成
年份	真实值/10⁴ t	仿真值/10⁴ t	相对误差/%	真实值/10⁴ t	仿真值/10⁴ t	相对误差/%	真实值/10⁸元	仿真值/10⁸元	相对误差/%
2007	625.8	627.2	0.22	16.9	17.0	0.59	870.8	872.9	0.24
2008	858.2	855.5	0.31	15.1	15.1	0.00	1074.4	1066.9	0.70
2009	1102.1	1100.5	0.15	20.1	20.1	0.00	1201.9	1196.6	0.44
2010	1237.2	1235.9	0.11	19.8	19.8	0.00	1445.5	1443.6	0.13
2011	1540.2	1552.6	0.81	34.1	34.4	0.88	1858.5	1860.7	0.12
2012	1651.2	1581.0	4.25	38.9	37.3	4.11	2281.8	2181.5	4.40
2013	1822.3	1818.5	0.21	135.4	135.2	0.15	2592.3	2584.9	0.29
2014	1980.7	1965.4	0.77	189.6	188.2	0.74	2799.9	2788.3	0.41
2015	2123.6	2100.8	1.07	263.7	260.8	1.10	2483.9	2467.0	0.68
2016	1101.5	1099.4	0.19	428.7	428.0	0.16	3005.2	2992.4	0.43
2017	1076.9	1068.5	0.78	438.4	435.1	0.75	3125.4	3104.0	0.68

表3

表4

图2

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变量	情景1	情景2	情景3	情景4	情景5	情景6
人口净增长率	-	上升10%	-	-	-	上升5%
就业人口占总人口比重	-	上升10%	-	-	-	上升5%
第一产业增加值增长率	-	-	上升10%	-	-	上升5%
第二产业增加值增长率	-	-	上升10%	-	-	上升5%
第三产业增加值增长率	-	-	上升10%	-	-	上升5%
农业用水增长率	-	-	-	下降10%	-	下降5%
工业用水增长率	-	-	-	下降10%	-	下降5%
生活用水增长率	-	-	-	下降10%	-	下降5%
生态用水增长率	-	-	-	下降10%	-	下降5%
能源消费弹性系数	-	-	-	下降10%	-	下降5%
工业废水治理投资	-	-	-	-	上升10%	上升5%
工业废气治理投资	-	-	-	-	上升10%	上升5%
工业固体废弃物治理投资	-	-	-	-	上升10%	上升5%

子系统	变量	年份	情景1	情景2	情景3	情景4	情景5	情景6
社会	总人口/10⁴人	2007	40058.00	40058.00	40058.00	40058.00	40058.00	40058.00
		2020	42207.90	42710.92	42007.60	42407.80	42207.90	42623.20
		2030	43927.00	44655.78	43711.29	44131.90	43927.00	44436.48
		增长率/%	9.66	11.48	9.12	10.17	9.66	10.93
	就业人口/ 10⁴人	2007	23253.70	25581.00	23253.70	23253.70	23253.70	24416.60
		2020	26168.90	29340.80	26015.20	26362.60	26168.90	27552.40
		2030	27278.70	30729.34	27054.29	27491.86	27278.70	29207.84
		增长率/%	17.31	20.13	16.34	18.23	17.31	19.62
经济	GDP/10⁸元	2007	73977.10	73977.10	73977.10	73977.10	73977.10	73977.10
		2020	240532.00	258585.00	346011.00	282235.00	242627.00	325910.00
		2030	358819.00	374550.00	466998.00	405823.00	363266.00	443161.00
		增长率/%	385.04	406.31	531.27	448.58	391.05	499.05
资源	单位GDP水耗/t·（10⁴元）^-1	2007	160.77	160.77	160.77	160.77	160.77	160.77
		2020	56.24	58.97	44.72	41.10	53.67	39.49
		2030	47.18	48.23	40.68	37.03	44.26	34.87
		增长率/%	-70.65	-70.00	-74.70	-76.97	-72.47	-78.31
	单位GDP能耗/t·（10⁴元）^-1	2007	1.31	1.31	1.31	1.31	1.31	1.31
		2020	0.66	0.70	0.53	0.51	0.62	0.46
		2030	0.55	0.57	0.45	0.43	0.52	0.42
		增长率/%	-57.72	-56.32	-65.31	-67.02	-60.07	-68.16
环境	工业COD排放量/10⁴ t	2007	157.10	164.95	164.95	157.10	132.68	150.46
		2020	81.18	87.78	96.30	72.81	53.74	66.39
		2030	45.50	50.52	60.05	35.21	16.36	29.13
		增长率/%	-71.04	-69.37	-63.60	-77.59	-87.67	-80.64
	工业SO₂排放量/10⁴ t	2007	812.50	853.09	853.13	812.50	781.37	837.51
		2020	349.85	381.91	439.83	319.85	238.26	270.29
		2030	240.31	266.83	324.34	210.52	110.69	166.10
		增长率/%	-70.42	-68.72	-61.98	-74.09	-85.83	-80.17