关键词: 甘肃天水, 气候变化, 桃产量, 形成, 影响分析

Abstract: To effectively defend the impact of climate change on fruit trees' growth and yield,based on peach yield in mountain area in Qin'an County and semi arid in Maiji District and meteorological data from 1981 to 2011,and by using statistical method,impact of climate change on fruit trees production and management department were analyzed in this paper. Results show that:the average temperature rose significantly at a rate of 0.34-0.45℃/10 a in cultivation area in Tianshui Prfecture,Gansu Province,China since 1990s. The rising rate of the average highest temperature was significantly higher than the average temperature,which reached up to 0.57℃·(10 a)^-1 and was the major performance of climate warming. The precipitation reduced 9%-10% in 1990s and the climate became drier. The precipitation rose from 2001 to 2010,though the average precipitation was closer to years' level,the uncertainty and instability increased and the amplitude became larger. Since the global warming in 1991-2010,the peach trees growth process became faster:the days from bud expansion to fruit ripe were 5-17 days ahead and growth process was shortened for 4-7 days. The temperature increase and precipitation decrease in early spring led to the ratio of precipitation/temperature in March decreased in linear at a rate of -0.039·a^-1. The warm and dry climate caused by abnormal allocation of hydrothermal resources led to worse effect on bud,flowering and fruit stage. The asynchronous increase between the highest and lowest temperature in middle spring caused the daily temperature range to increase in linear at a rate of 0.50·(10 a)^-1 in drought area in Weibei Region. The ratio of the product of the average temperature and atmospheric relative humidity and the highest temperature decreased in linear at a rate of 0.38·(10 a)^-1. The damage of high and low temperature became more serious in flowering and bearing fruit. The precipitation in July increased 0.19·(10 a)^-1 and 2.37·(10 a)^-1 in the 1990s and 2000s than that in 1980s,respectively;the daily temperature range decreased 4.96·(10 a)^-1 and 9.67·(10 a)^-1 in the 1990s and 2000s than that in 1980s,respectively. The increase of precipitation and decrease of daily temperature range did more harm to the accumulation of fruit dry matter,coloring and maturity. More precipitation could even cause abscission of fruits and reduction of yield. The precipitation in October increased at a rate of 0.045·(10 a)^-1,which was good for trees overwintering and easing the adverse effect of warm and dry climate in the coming year on fruit yield. This research considered not only single meteorological factor,but also analyzed the change of abnormal allocation of hydrothermal resources. The conclusion basically reflected the climate change feature and its effect on fruit trees normal growth and yield,the biological significance was obvious.

Key words: Tianshui Prefecture of Gansu Province, climate change, yield of peach, formation, impact analysis