关键词: 历史变迁, 驱动因素, 未来变化, 塔里木河

Abstract: The paper reviewed the development track of Tarim River during the past 2000 years by searching ancient classics, finding that Tarim River channel has been continually moving to the north and shrinking gradually. Before the Northern Wei Dynasty (about AD 386), Tarim River was consist of two rivers, the north river and the south river, with a distance of at least 240 kilometers. From the Northern Wei Dynasty to middle Tang Dynasty (about AD 755), the south river moved northward for about 160-180 kilometers, making it lose two water sources and begin to collapse;meanwhile downstream of the north river moved northward for 60-85 kilometers. From middle Tang Dynasty to the eve of Yuan Dynasty (AD 1225), the south river further collapsed and only one water source remained. From Yuan Dynasty to early days of Qing Dynasty (AD 1670), the only water source of the south river moved northward for about 70 kilometers, flowing into the north river, and then dried up and disappeared. From the early days of Qing Dynasty to the Republic, Tarim River repeatedly swung north and south for 40-50 kilometers, and eventually back to the initial position of early Qing Dynasty. Nearly 60 years, the middle reaches of Tarim River moved northward for 50-100 kilometers. Research and analysis show that the historical changes of Tarim River channel were the results of many interacted factors including regional tectonic movement and terrain features, prevailing wind and dune movement in the Tarim Basin, and also the hydrology climate change and human activities.

Key words: Historical changes, Driving Factors, Future changes, Tarim River