基于系统动力学模型的塔里木河流域水资源承载力研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.05.21

干旱区地理 ›› 2021, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (5): 1407-1416.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.05.21

基于系统动力学模型的塔里木河流域水资源承载力研究

刘夏¹(),张曼²,徐建华³,郭英¹,段伟利⁴,沈彦军¹()

1.中国科学院遗传与发育生物学研究所农业资源研究中心,中国科学院农业水资源重点实验室,河北省节水农业重点实验室,河北石家庄 050021
2.河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院,河北石家庄 050024
3.华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海 200062
4.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐 830011

收稿日期:2020-08-18 修回日期:2020-11-27 出版日期:2021-09-25 发布日期:2021-09-22
通讯作者: 沈彦军
作者简介:刘夏（1990-）,男,助理研究员,主要从事流域水文过程模拟研究. E-mail: liuxia@ajziam.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金青年基金(41807177)

Water resources carrying capacity of Tarim River Basin based on system dynamics model

LIU Xia¹(),ZHANG Man²,XU Jianhua³,GUO Ying¹,DUAN Weili⁴,SHEN Yanjun¹()

1. Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050021, Hebei, China
2. College of Resources & Environmental Science, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, Hebei, China
3. School of Geographic Sciences, Huadong Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
4. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China

Received:2020-08-18 Revised:2020-11-27 Online:2021-09-25 Published:2021-09-22
Contact: Yanjun SHEN

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

水资源承载力的定量评估是确保干旱地区水资源可持续利用的关键前提。选取我国最大的内陆干旱区流域--塔里木河流域为研究区域,结合其特殊的地理环境和供水与需水特征,构建系统动力学模型,基于实地调研、统计年鉴与水资源公报数据,以水资源红线为约束,对塔里木河流域水资源承载力的历史状况与未来趋势进行了定量评估和预测。结果显示：塔里木河流域及其所属各地（州）历史期内（2008-2016年）水资源均呈现轻度超载状态,且在未来（2017-2030年）将进一步加剧。在当前的政策背景下,如使该区水资源于2030年达到可承载的状态,则需在该地区扩大农业节水设施建设规模并着力发展农业节水灌溉技术,并力争在2030年实现灌溉用水定额达到5.70×10³ m³·hm^-2以下,农业灌溉面积降低至2.60×10⁶ hm²以下。同时,农业节水与产业转型应是该地区未来社会经济发展的2个需要重点考虑的方向。

关键词: 水资源承载力, 系统动力学模型, 干旱区, 节水农业, 塔里木河流域

Abstract:

Assessing the carrying capacity of water resources is a central issue in water resources research. However, there is still debate about how to assess the carrying capacity of water resources. Most of the studies assessing the water resource carrying capacity of the Tarim Rvier Basin, Xinjiang, China have been based on empirical methods. However, few studies have used system dynamics models to assess the carrying capacity of water resources in the Tarim River Basin. This study constructed a systematic dynamic model for calculating the historical and future carrying capacity of the water resources in the Tarim River Basin. The dataset of this study is an authoritative dataset from the Statistical Yearbook and Bulletin on Water Resources in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The results indicate that the water resources of the Tarim River Basin exceeded carrying capacity during the historical period (2008-2016). From 2008 to 2016, the yield of water above the red line of water consumption was almost 10% of the red line of water consumption in the Tarim River Basin. According to socio-economic development trends, the water resources of the Tarim River Basin will remarkably exceed their water resource carrying capacity in the future (2020-2030). The yield of water above the red line of water consumption will be almost 32% of the red line of water consumption in the Tarim River Basin in 2030. In response to the needs of sustainable socio-economic development and water resource utilization, the water resources of the Tarim River Basin will gradually meet their water resource carrying capacity in the future (2020-2030). The water yield below the red line of water consumption will almost be 9% of the red line of water consumption in the Tarim River Basin in 2030. Given that the water resources of the Tarim River Basin do not exceed theirs water resource carrying capacity, the agricultural irrigation quota must be limited to less than 5.70×10³ m³·hm^-2 in 2030. The irrigated area should be limited to less than 2.60×10⁶ hm². The agricultural irrigation quota of 5.7×10³ m³·hm^-2 is slightly higher than the level of Israel, corresponding to the agricultural irrigation quota of 5.25×10³ m³·hm^-2. In the context of sustainable use of water resources in the Tarim River Basin, this study suggests that more agricultural water-saving facilities and irrigation technologies should be popularized. For example, drip irrigation technology should be used to irrigate farmlands in the Tarim River Basin. The water consumption of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the secondary and service industries is much lower than the GDP water consumption of industrial agriculture and water-saving agriculture. Structural adjustment of the planting industry needs to be pre-developed in the Tarim River Basin in the future. There is a need to accelerate the transformation of the Tarim River Basin industry and increase GDP, which accounts for the secondary and service industries. Therefore, the service and the secondary industries must be the pillar industries of the Tarim River Basin. This study also suggests that the Tarim River Basin should maintain a rapid growth trend in the industrial and service sector over the next decade. This can accelerate the development of the service industry, promote the economic development of the region, and reduce the dependence on water resources.

Key words: water resource carrying capacity, system dynamics model, arid region, water-saving agriculture, Tarim River Basin

刘夏,张曼,徐建华,郭英,段伟利,沈彦军. 基于系统动力学模型的塔里木河流域水资源承载力研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2021, 44(5): 1407-1416.

LIU Xia,ZHANG Man,XU Jianhua,GUO Ying,DUAN Weili,SHEN Yanjun. Water resources carrying capacity of Tarim River Basin based on system dynamics model[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(5): 1407-1416.

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年份	巴州	克州	阿克苏	喀什	和田	塔里木河流域
2020	46.92	4.30	93.07	106.09	41.10	291.48
2030	46.26	4.30	92.50	94.94	41.10	279.10

评估结果	巴州	克州	阿克苏	喀什	和田	塔里木河流域
承载系数	1.04	2.36	1.16	1.10	1.11	1.13
超标水量/10⁸m³	2.09	5.38	14.43	10.35	4.46	37.16

参数	巴州	克州	阿克苏	喀什	和田	塔里木河流域
灌溉用水定额/m³·hm^-2	640	681	698	604	880	/
单位二产用水量/m³·(10⁴元)^-1	42.70	50.40	50.84	26.15	37.10	40.48
单位三产用水量/m³·(10⁴元)^-1	6.41	3.88	4.91	2.09	54.77	5.06
人均用水量/m³·人^-1	67.51	53.08	25.52	41.20	24.90	37.68
一产GDP年均增长率/%	15.55	15.60	13.26	10.93	14.13	14.90
二产GDP年均增长率/%	10.87	11.62	18.02	23.73	4.88	8.86
三产GDP年均增长率/%	15.78	22.58	14.86	17.07	13.76	16.27
人口年均增长率/%	2.85	2.46	16.14	2.16	1.25	2.17

年份	生活用水	一产用水	二产用水	三产用水	生态用水
2008	2.60	303.17	2.83	0.66	6.04
2009	3.09	295.89	2.62	0.52	5.83
2010	2.42	306.63	3.05	0.48	3.81
2011	3.10	294.79	3.44	0.51	3.03
2012	3.44	321.41	3.92	0.60	2.48
2013	3.78	348.02	4.39	0.68	1.93
2014	3.83	332.75	4.02	0.86	1.64
2015	3.77	330.34	3.82	0.93	1.53
2016	4.26	327.53	4.26	0.43	2.01

方案	年份	巴州	克州	阿克苏	喀什	和田	塔里木河流域
现状方案	2020	0.96	3.04	1.45	0.97	1.25	1.20
	2025	0.90	3.76	1.64	0.88	1.49	1.25
	2030	0.86	5.11	1.90	0.82	1.83	1.34
可承载方案	2020	0.90	2.80	1.30	0.91	1.09	1.09
	2025	0.77	3.05	1.24	0.73	1.13	0.98
	2030	0.71	3.79	1.20	0.61	1.24	0.91

基于系统动力学模型的塔里木河流域水资源承载力研究

Water resources carrying capacity of Tarim River Basin based on system dynamics model

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