干旱区文化旅游地社会-生态系统恢复力年际变化及影响因素——以甘肃省敦煌市为例

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2021.354

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

文旅融合背景下,分析文化旅游地社会-生态系统恢复力年际变化及影响因素,能够为文化旅游地可持续发展提供较好的理论和实践指导。以敦煌市为典型案例地,从社会、经济、文化和生态环境4个方面构建文化旅游地社会-生态系统恢复力评价指标体系,运用灰色关联TOPSIS、耦合协调度模型、BP神经网络等方法,探究了2007—2018年案例区社会-生态系统恢复力时序变化及影响因素。结果表明：（1） 2007—2018年敦煌市社会-生态系统恢复力处于较良好的状态且可划分为波动-缓慢增长-快速上升阶段。（2）文化和生态环境子系统在决定敦煌市社会-生态系统恢复力程度方面起到主导作用。（3）社会-生态系统及各子系统间的耦合度和协调度均呈上升趋势,子系统间对系统总体的协调度普遍起正向推动作用且作用强度随时间推移不断增大。（4）各因子的贡献率大小为敦煌百度指数>敦煌研究院研究生数量>各类文物保护单位>旅游业碳总排放量>文化产业经营单位。

关键词: 干旱区, 文化旅游地, 社会-生态系统, 敦煌市

Abstract:

This paper mainly studies the interannual changes and influential factors of social-ecological system resilience of cultural tourism destinations in arid areas. Existing studies on social-ecological systems have not paid much attention to cultural tourism destinations in the arid regions of western China. Therefore, taking Dunhuang City as a typical case, in this paper, we constructed an indicator system to evaluate the resilience of the social-ecological system of cultural tourism destinations from four aspects: social, economic, cultural, and ecological environment. We also conducted research using gray correlation TOPSIS, coupling coordination degree model, and BP neural network. As a result, the following were found. (1) Compared with endogenous variables, the social-ecological system of cultural tourism destinations in arid regions strongly reflects exogenous variables. The social-ecological system resilience of Dunhuang City has been good from 2007 to 2018 and can be divided into fluctuating, slow-growth, and rapid-rise stages. (2) Various subsystems have different impacts on the resilience of the social-ecological system of cultural tourism destinations in arid regions. Cultural and ecological environment subsystems play a leading role in determining the degree of social-ecological system resilience in Dunhuang City. (3) The degree of coupling and coordination between the social-ecological system and its subsystems shows an upward trend. The subsystems generally play a positive role in promoting the overall degree of coordination of the system, and the action intensity increases with time. (4) The contribution rate of the factors is as follows: Dunhuang Baidu index>Dunhuang Research Institute graduate students>various protection units of cultural relics>total carbon emission of tourism>cultural industry operation units.

Key words: arid area, cultural tourism destination, social-ecological system, Dunhuang City

李观凤,焦华富,王群. 干旱区文化旅游地社会-生态系统恢复力年际变化及影响因素——以甘肃省敦煌市为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(3): 935-945.

LI Guanfeng,JIAO Huafu,WANG Qun. Interannual variation and influencing factors of social-ecological system resilience of cultural tourism destination in arid area: A case of Dunhuang City, Gansu Province[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(3): 935-945.

图/表 10

图1

图2

表1

干旱区文化旅游地社会-生态系统恢复力测度指标体系"

子系统层	准则层	指标层	指标含义（性质）	权重
社会	脆弱性	人口自然增长率/‰	反映人口自然增长情况（-）	0.0218
		旅游者与当地居民比/%	反映系统承受外界压力（-）	0.0144
		敦煌百度指数	反映旅游网络关注度（-）	0.0196
		刑事案件立案数/起	反映社会稳定性（-）	0.0293
	应对能力	教育支出与财政支出比/%	反映教育投入力度（+）	0.0154
		各类专业科学技术人员与全市从业人员比/%	反映科学技术水平（+）	0.0306
		社会保障与就业占财政支出比/%	反映社会保障能力（+）	0.0298
		公路、铁路和航空的客运量/10⁴人次	反映交通可达性（+）	0.0260
经济	脆弱性	旅游收入增加值与GDP比/%	反映旅游业的依赖度（-）	0.0121
		旅游人数增长率/%	反映旅游规模（+）	0.0070
		旅游业拉动率/%	反映旅游业对相关产业的带动作用（+）	0.0208
		文化产业经营单位数量/家	反映文化产业规模（+）	0.0335
		文化产业增长速度/%	反映文化产业发展速度（+）	0.0333
		第三产业从业人员与全市总从业人员比/%	反映旅游发展所形成的就业能力（+）	0.0238
	应对能力	人均GDP/元	反映经济总体发展水平（+）	0.0193
		城镇居民人均可支配收入/元	反映居民经济能力（+）	0.0177
		财政自给率/%	反映政府应对风险能力（+）	0.0301
		产业结构多样化指数	反映产业结构平衡程度（+）	0.0212
		人均固定投资资产金额/元	反映文化产业投资强度（+）	0.0320
文化	脆弱性	修复文物病虫害面积占壁画比重/%	反映文物承受微生物的影响（-）	0.0094
		各类文物保护单位数量/处	反映文物资源禀赋（+）	0.0687
		文物对外艺术展览活动/项	反映文物价值及知名度（+）	0.0235
		“文化遗产日”系列教育推广活动/项	反映文物的社会教育活动（+）	0.0319
	应对能力	敦煌研究院从业人员数量/人	反映文化博物馆管理规模（+）	0.0321
		敦煌研究院研究生数量/人	反映文化博物馆管理质量（+）	0.0161
		国内外文物进修学习的人员费用/元	反映文物保护的资金力度（+）	0.0302
		国内外文物学术交流和合作项目/场·项^-1	反映文物学习及信息交流（+）	0.0343
		获批省级以上文物保护科研项目/项	反映文物科研力度（+）	0.0203
		文物、档案和图像资料信息数字化/件·张^-1	反映技术对文物保护程度（+）	0.0329
		中国敦煌石窟保护研究基金会的公益活动金额/10⁴元	反映非正式制度对文物的保护力度（+）	0.0348
生态环境	脆弱性	干旱指数	反映系统干旱状况（*）	0.0179
		径流变率/%	反映河流径流量稳定性（*）	0.0198
		平均相对湿度/%	反映文物受空气水分侵蚀程度（-）	0.0255
		年温差/℃	反映文物受物理风化侵蚀程度（-）	0.0318
		旅游业碳总排放量/t	反映文物受氧化程度（-）	0.0176
		年均植被指数	反映植被状况（+）	0.0176
		年日照时数/h	反映气候环境（+）	0.0121
		自然灾害数量/件	反映系统受灾害干扰（-）	0.0151
	应对能力	生态防护林造林面积/10⁴ hm²	反映系统抗风沙干扰（+）	0.0453
		环保支出占财政支出比/%	反映环保支持程度（+）	0.0172
		人均园林绿地面积/m²	反映生态环境保育水平（+）	0.0080

表1

表2

图3

表3

图4

图5

图6

表4

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等级	评价等级	恢复力指数的取值范围
1级	恢复力较低	[0.00, 0.33)
2级	恢复力中等	[0.33, 0.66)
3级	恢复力较高	[0.66, 1.00)

变量	回归系数	标准误差	t	P	R²	调整R²	F
常数	-0.012	0.013	-0.901	0.368	0.999	0.999	F=5157.520,P=0.000
社会	0.118	0.022	5.276	0.000^**
经济	0.229	0.012	19.930	0.000^**
文化	0.429	0.017	25.558	0.000^**
生态环境	0.279	0.029	9.647	0.000^**

变量	t值
变量	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4
敦煌百度指数	11.013^**
文化产业经营单位		17.260^**
各类文物保护单位			6.304^**
敦煌研究院研究生数量			3.183^*
旅游业碳总排放量				6.572^**
R²	0.961	0.984	0.979	0.901
D-W值	2.128	3.003	2.729	1.376
F	121.289	297.917	103.588	43.188