基于Google Earth Engine的干旱区水资源承载现状精准核算--以新疆生产建设兵团为例

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.05.22

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近年来,水资源利用超载导致新疆生产建设兵团（下称“兵团”）生产生态问题频发,科学精准评估水资源承载现状能够为兵团社会经济发展和生态环境治理提供重要参考。兵团社会经济用水中绝大部分为灌溉用水,因此耕地面积数据精度显著影响水资源承载现状评价结果,然而现实中耕地面积统计数据存在一定偏差,增加了水资源承载现状评估的不确定性。基于此,通过引入Google Earth Engine（GEE）大数据平台和净耕地系数,精确修订耕地面积;并模拟常规灌溉、膜上灌溉和混合灌溉3种灌溉用水情景,构建三生用水核算体系,对兵团及各师水资源承载现状进行精准评估。结果表明：兵团耕地校正系数为1.27,说明兵团耕地面积有约27%的偏差;在与实际用水相近的混合灌溉情景中,基于耕地面积统计数据的兵团总需水量为106.45×10⁸ m³,相对兵团总引水量尚有9.20%余量;通过GEE校正耕地面积后,兵团总需水量为125.64×10⁸ m³,超载7.16%,且13个师中仅四师和十师2个师用水量不超载,表明灌溉用水过度占用有限的水资源量、挤占大量生态用水,是导致兵团水资源超载和生产生态问题频发的关键。本研究实现了对兵团水资源承载现状的科学精准评估,能够为兵团水资源利用及优化配置、区域可持续发展提供参考。

关键词: 水资源承载现状, 精准核算, Google Earth Engine, 新疆生产建设兵团, 灌溉用水, 超载程度

Abstract:

In recent years, a series of production and ecological environmental problems have occurred frequently because of the overloading of water resources utilized by the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XJPCC) in China. Assessing the water carrying capacity of an area can precisely provide reference to socioeconomic development and ecological environment management of the XJPCC. Considering that irrigation water accounts for most of the total socioeconomic water consumption of the XJPCC, the precise level of cultivated land area significantly influences the accurate assessment of the water carrying status. However, the statistics of cultivated land area shows inaccuracies, which increase the uncertainty in the water carrying status assessment. For these reasons, the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform and net cultivated land coefficient were used to precisely obtain the proportion of cultivated land in this research. In this study, three scenarios were simulated on the basis of different irrigation quotas; these scenarios were the conventional irrigation, irrigation on a plastic film, and mixed standard irrigation scenarios. The total water requirement under the three scenarios could be regarded as the maximum, minimum, and middle values of the XJPCC theoretically. Besides the estimation of the irrigation water requirement for planting, a “living-production-ecology” water resources utilization accounting system was constructed for the accurate assessment of the water resource carrying status of the total XJPCC and of each division. The results show that the correction coefficient of cultivated land of the XJPCC is 1.27, which indicates that the inaccuracy in statistics is approximately 27%. In the mixed standard irrigation scenario, the scenario closest to the existing situation, the total water demand of the XJPCC was 106.45×10 ⁸ m³ before the correction of the inaccuracy in the actual cultivated land use value; in this scenario, a 9.20% surplus in the total water diversion of the XJPCC was calculated. However, considering the revised cultivated land area, the total water demand was 125.64×10⁸ m³, and it was found that the water resource utilization overloading rate was 7.16%, and only 2 of 13 divisions’ water resource utilization were within the carrying capacity. Irrigation water use required more than the existing water resources and therefore used ecological water, which became the critical factor in the overload of water resources utilization. Our study realizes the accurate and scientific assessment of the water resource carrying capacity of the XJPCC and provides a reference for utilizing and optimizing water resources and the sustainable development of agriculture.

Key words: water resources carrying status, accurate calculation, Google Earth Engine, Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, irrigation water, overload rate

李婧昕,许尔琪,张红旗. 基于Google Earth Engine的干旱区水资源承载现状精准核算--以新疆生产建设兵团为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2021, 44(5): 1417-1426.

LI Jingxin,XU Erqi,ZHANG Hongqi. Accurate calculation of water resources carrying status in arid areas based on Google Earth Engine: A case study of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(5): 1417-1426.

图/表 9

表1

表2

表3

兵团各项需水（除种植业外）计算方法及说明"

非种植业需水	需水项	计算方法	灌溉定额参考来源
生活需水	城镇居民生活需水	$W S i = QS × i P i × 365 / 1011$ 式中：WS_i代表第i师生产需水量（10⁸ m³）;QS_i为第i师人均生产用水定额[L·(d·人)^-1];P_i为第i师人口数量（人）。	结合中国工程院对新疆水资源供需情况调研分析^[25]和地区水资源公报,将北疆、南疆和东疆（下文分别以N、S和E表示）人均生活用水定额分别设定为155 L·d^-1、130 L·d^-1和140 L·d^-1,各师人员均按照城镇居民计。
生产需水	农业-林草地灌溉需水	$W D i = QD × i A D i × R i / 108$ 式中：WD_i代表第i师林地/草地灌溉需水量（10⁸ m³）;QD_i、AD_i为第i师林地/草地灌溉定额（m³·hm^-2）和灌溉面积（hm²）;R_i为第i师林地/草地灌溉面积比例,最终林地灌溉需水与草地灌溉需水之和为林草地灌溉总需水。	根据中国工程院已有研究^[25]和项目组实地考察结果,林草地综合灌溉定额分别为4950 m³·hm^-2（N）、7050 m³·hm^-2（S）和6000 m³·hm^-2（E）;将3个地区林草地灌溉用水总量分别与林草地总面积作比可知,灌溉的林草地面积占总林草地面积平均比例分别约为8%、4%和4%。
	农业-牲畜需水	$W L i = ∑ Q ai × M ai + ∑ Q bi × M bi × 365 / 1011$ 式中：WL_i为第i师牲畜需水量（10⁸ m³）;Q_ai和Q_bi分别为第i师大牲畜（牛、马和驴）和小牲畜（羊和猪）需水定额[L·(d·头)^-1];M_ai和M_bi分别为第i师大牲畜和小牲畜数量（头）。	根据中国工程院已有研究^[25]和项目组实地调研结果,大牲畜需水量分别为50 L·(d·头)^-1（N）、40 L·(d·头)^-1（S）、50 L·(d·头)^-1（E）;小牲畜需水量均为10 L·(d·头)^-1。
	工业需水	$W G i = IAV × i I G i × 1 - D i = IA V i × Q G i$ 式中：WG_i代表第i师工业需水量（10⁸ m³）;IAV_i为第i师当年工业增加值（10⁴元）;IG_i和D_i分别为前一年份万元工业增加值用水量[10⁸ m³·(10⁴元)^-1]和近10 a来平均万元工业增加值用水量降幅（%）;QC_i为当前年份万元工业增加值用水量[10⁸ m³·(10⁴元)^-1]。	根据《新疆生产建设兵团年鉴》和《兵团年鉴》中可获取的数据,2017年各师工业用水量平均值分别为0.08×10⁸ m³（N）、0.22×10⁸ m³（S）和0.24×10⁸ m³（E）,工业增加值分别为18.00×10⁸元（N）、30.80×10⁸元（S）和55.90×10⁸元（E）,由此可得万元工业增加值用水量分别为39.43×10⁸ m³·(10⁴元)^-1（N）、71.43 ×10⁸ m³·(10⁴元)^-1（S）和42.84×10⁸ m³·(10⁴元)^-1（E）。
	城镇公共需水	$W C i = QC × i P i × 365 / 1011$ 式中：WC_i代表第i师生产需水量（10⁸ m³）;QC_i为第i师人均生产用水定额[L·(d·人)^-1];P_i为第i师人口数量（人）。	根据已有研究结论^[25]并结合兵团实际情况,人均城镇公共用水定额分别为19 L·d^-1（N）、18 L·d^-1（S）和23 L·d^-1（E）。
生态需水	河道外生态需水	$WR O i = QE × i P i × 365 / 1011$ 式中：WRO_i为第i师河道外生态需水量（10⁸ m³）;QE_i为第i师河道外人均生态需水定额[L·(d·人)^-1];P_i为第i师人口数量（人）。	结合已有研究^[25]和课题组实地考察结果,城镇人均生态需水定额分别设置为14 L·d^-1（N）、13 L·d^-1（S）、12 L·d^-1（E）。

表3

图1

图2

表4

表5

图3

表6

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作物	北疆			南疆			东疆
作物	常规灌溉	膜上灌溉	混合灌溉	常规灌溉	膜上灌溉	混合灌溉	常规灌溉	膜上灌溉	混合灌溉
小麦	4725	3660	5160	5115	3945	5580	5220	4050	5700
玉米	4800	3720	5235	5310	4110	5805	6480	5025	7050
水稻	12405	9420	13530	13980	10800	15255	-	-	-
薯类	4725	4035	4725	5265	4500	5265	5400	4650	5400
油菜	4815	3915	4815	5325	4095	5325	5175	4050	5175
葵花	4845	3855	4845	5565	4260	5565	5775	4470	5775
豆类	4260	3285	4260	5070	3900	5070	5445	4230	5445
棉花	5835	4515	4515	6600	5625	5625	7650	5895	5895
甜菜	5325	4125	5325	5715	4425	5715	-	-	-
苜蓿	4575	3540	4575	5115	3975	5115	5295	4125	5295
蔬菜	5520	4260	5520	6435	4950	6435	6255	4845	6255
葡萄	5970	4620	5970	6510	5025	6510	9225	7170	9225
瓜类	4695	3615	4695	5370	4170	5370	5580	4305	5580
果树	6195	4980	6195	7275	5640	7275	8295	6375	8295

师名	农业需水合计	农业需水类别			生活需水	工业需水	城镇公共需水	河道外生态需水	总需水量
师名	农业需水合计	农作物	牲畜	林草地	生活需水	工业需水	城镇公共需水	河道外生态需水	总需水量
一师	27.89	27.77	0.10	0.02	0.18	0.43	0.03	0.02	28.54
二师	10.34	9.78	0.54	0.02	0.11	0.24	0.02	0.01	10.71
三师	12.63	12.36	0.25	0.02	0.12	0.18	0.02	0.01	12.97
四师	9.53	8.65	0.83	0.05	0.14	0.29	0.02	0.01	9.99
五师	5.94	5.39	0.53	0.01	0.07	0.04	0.01	0.01	6.07
六师	11.03	9.79	1.20	0.04	0.21	0.40	0.03	0.02	11.68
七师	10.17	9.61	0.53	0.03	0.14	0.14	0.02	0.01	10.47
八师	17.23	16.92	0.27	0.05	0.37	0.63	0.05	0.03	18.32
九师	4.45	3.66	0.75	0.04	0.05	0.03	0.01	0.00	4.54
十师	2.88	2.67	0.20	0.02	0.06	0.09	0.01	0.01	3.04
十二师	1.93	1.01	0.91	0.01	0.08	0.25	0.01	0.01	2.27
十三师	4.15	3.04	1.10	0.01	0.06	0.30	0.01	0.00	4.53
十四师	2.46	2.21	0.24	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.01	0.00	2.50
合计	120.64	112.86	7.45	0.32	1.61	3.03	0.22	0.15	125.64

师名	总供水量/10⁸ m³	总需水量/10⁸ m³	超载程度/%	不超载	临界状态	一般超载	中度超载	严重超载
一师	23.08	24.16	4.70			√
二师	10.84	9.42	-13.10	√
三师	12.71	11.02	-13.26	√
四师	12.80	8.01	-37.40	√
五师	5.00	4.54	-9.19		√
六师	12.90	10.79	-16.34	√
七师	9.39	7.85	-16.45	√
八师	13.38	15.36	14.77			√
九师	2.33	3.99	70.87					√
十师	6.86	2.50	-63.47	√
十二	2.31	2.20	-4.91		√
十三	3.25	4.14	27.34				√
十四	2.39	2.47	3.25			√

师名	总供水量/10⁸ m³	总需水量/10⁸ m³	超载程度/%	不超载	临界状态	一般超载	中度超载	严重超载
一师	23.08	28.54	23.67				√
二师	10.84	10.71	-1.18		√
三师	12.71	12.97	2.01			√
四师	12.80	9.99	-21.92	√
五师	5.00	6.07	21.42				√
六师	12.90	11.68	-9.45		√
七师	9.39	10.47	11.55			√
八师	13.38	18.32	36.92				√
九师	2.33	4.54	94.60					√
十师	6.86	3.04	-55.63	√
十二师	2.31	2.27	-1.96		√
十三师	3.25	4.53	39.18				√
十四师	2.39	2.50	4.70			√