上游不同开发情景对阿克苏河径流变化影响分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.05.17

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

萨雷扎兹河发源于吉尔吉斯斯坦（以下称吉国）,入境水量约占阿克苏河水量的44.3%,对确保阿克苏地区经济社会的可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。近年来,吉国计划在萨雷扎兹河（阿克苏河上游）进行水资源开发,将会影响处于下游的我国境内阿克苏河流域的水资源量。基于阿克苏河流域的径流数据,定量分析了萨雷扎兹河的径流变化特征和不同开发情景对阿克苏河下游径流的影响。结果表明：在1958-2015年,萨雷扎兹河年径流整体呈显著上升趋势;径流的年内分配差异较大,主要集中在7、8月;春、冬两季径流呈显著增长趋势,夏、秋两季呈微弱增长趋势;从年代际变化看,除1958-1959年为偏枯水时段,1990-1999年为偏丰水时段外,剩下的时间段均为平水时段。吉国跨流域调水工程建设将对阿克苏河径流产生重大影响。从季节尺度分析,跨流域调水工程建设将导致阿克苏河下游径流呈减少状态,其中夏季敏感性最高;从年尺度分析,跨流域调水工程建设将导致阿克苏河下游径流呈减少状态,而且随着调水量的增多,阿克苏河下游径流不断减少。研究结果可以为我国政府在处理吉国跨流域调水工程建设对阿克苏河径流产生影响的问题上提供一定的参考。

关键词: 径流, 开发情景, 水利工程, 多元线性回归模型, 阿克苏河, 萨雷扎兹河

Abstract:

The Sary-Jaz River originates in Kyrgyzstan, and its water inflow accounts for about 44.3% of the total water resources of the Aksu River, which is very useful for sustainable economic and social development of the Aksu River Basin. In recent years, Kyrgyzstan has planned to build an interbasin water transfer project in the Sary-Jaz River Basin (upstream of the Aksu River), affecting the water resources of the Aksu River Basin. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis of the runoff trend of the Sary-Jaz River Basin based on the data from hydrological stations in the Aksu River Basin and investigate the impacts of water resources on the lower Aksu River under various development scenarios. Based on the results from 1958 to 2015, the annual runoff of the Sary-Jaz River exhibited a significant increase. There was also a big difference in the annual runoff, mainly concentrated in July and August. Seasonal runoff tended to increase significantly in spring and winter, with a slight increase in summer and autumn. Among the decades of change, 1958 to 1959 were relatively low water levels, 1990 to 1999 were relatively high water levels, and the rest were normal water periods. Therefore, the Kyrgyzstan interbasin water transfer project will significantly impact the Aksu River runoff in the future. Based on a seasonal analysis, the interbasin water transfer project will substantially impact the Aksu River runoff, directly reducing the lower Aksu River runoff. Based on an annual analysis, the interbasin water transfer project will directly reduce the lower Aksu River runoff. Also, as water transfer increases, the runoff of the Aksu River Basin will continue to decline. The results obtained from this study can provide a reference for the Chinese government to address the adverse impacts of the interbasin water transfer project on the Aksu River runoff.

Key words: runoff, the exploitation scenarios, hydraulic engineering, multiple linear regression model, Aksu River, Sary-Jaz River

陈硕,段伟利,李肖杨. 上游不同开发情景对阿克苏河径流变化影响分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2021, 44(5): 1365-1372.

CHEN Shuo,DUAN Weili,LI Xiaoyang. Runoff changes of the Aksu River under different exploitation scenarios in the upper river[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(5): 1365-1372.

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河流	长度/km	流域面积/km²	标准流量/m³∙s^-1	径流总量/10⁸ m³
奎柳河	50	2800	32.8	3.6
伊内尔切克河	50	1852	11.4	9.8
卡英德河	42	607	31.1	2.4
乌利乔利河	87	1467	7.5	5.5
阿克西牙克河	99	2290	12.3	3.9

水文站	河名	位置	集水面积/km²	多年平均流量/m³∙s^-1	资料年限
协合拉	库玛拉克河（萨雷扎兹河）	79°37′E,41°34′N	12887.30	153.44	1958—2015年
沙里桂兰克	托什干河（阿克塞河）	78°32′E,40°56′N	19335.51	89.04	1958—2015年
西大桥	阿克苏河	80°15′E,41°56′N	45025.29	199.82	1958—2015年

季节	时间序列	平均径流量/10⁸ m³	斜率	占年径流量的比例/%
春季（3—5月）	1958—2015年	4.37	0.014^*	9.01
夏季（6—8月）	1958—2015年	33.47	0.114	69.05
秋季（9—11月）	1958—2015年	8.55	0.020	17.43
冬季（12—2月）	1958—2015年	2.39	0.008^**	4.51

时段	平均径流 /10⁸m³	距平百分比/%	丰枯判别	径流最大年		径流最小年
时段	平均径流 /10⁸m³	距平百分比/%	丰枯判别	径流量/10⁸m³	年份	径流量/10⁸m³	年份
1958—1959年	41.59	-14	偏枯水	46.35	1959	36.84	1958
1960—1969年	45.47	-6	平水	53.08	1961	39.97	1964
1970—1979年	43.96	-9	平水	62.24	1978	36.37	1972
1980—1989年	47.52	-2	平水	51.95	1984	42.38	1989
1990—1999年	54.56	13	偏丰水	69.96	1997	41.83	1993
2000—2009年	52.46	8	平水	64.07	2002	36.98	2009
2010—2015年	47.61	-2	平水	55.38	2010	37.87	2014
多年平均径流	48.42	—	—	—	—	—	—

尺度	方程	R²	F值	P值
春季	Y=0.386+0.368X₁+0.882X₂	0.591	39.676	0.000
夏季	Y=-6.575+0.675X₁+0.990X₂	0.779	97.106	0.000
秋季	Y=1.004+0.897X₁+0.853X₂	0.654	51.882	0.000
冬季	Y=8.274-1.418X₁+0.222X₂	0.192	6.538	0.003
年	Y=-2.549+0.783X₁+0.897X₂	0.778	96.499	0.000