黄河流域新型城镇化与农业现代化耦合协调的时空格局及驱动机制

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.052

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

探究黄河流域新型城镇化与农业现代化（“两化”）耦合协调关系，对落实黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展战略，推动城乡融合和区域协调发展具有重要意义。构建指标体系，运用熵值法、耦合协调度、地理探测器等方法，定量分析2010—2022年黄河流域67个地级市“两化”水平及其耦合协调的时空格局，探讨驱动机制。结果表明：（1）研究期内黄河流域“两化”水平显著上升，均呈东高西低的空间分布格局。（2） “两化”耦合协调类型由濒临失调主导向勉强协调为主演化，初级和中级协调范围稳步扩大。（3） “两化”耦合协调水平空间集聚特征显著，在山东形成极热点核心及山西、甘肃、宁夏（甘宁）形成2个冷点聚集区。（4）耦合协调发展空间分异格局是多因子协同作用、交互影响的结果。经济、市场、数字金融是核心驱动因子，农业科技、收入是次级驱动因子，交通与其他因子交互作用显著增强。研究结果有助于加强“两化”耦合理论认知，为流域推进“两化”战略、促进城乡融合发展提供政策参考。

关键词: 新型城镇化, 农业现代化, 耦合协调, 时空格局, 地理探测器, 黄河流域

Abstract:

Understanding the coupled coordination of new urbanization and agricultural modernization (the “two modernizations”) in China's Yellow River Basin is important for promoting ecological protection, high-quality development, urban-rural integration, and coordinated regional development in the region. This study quantitatively analyzes the levels and spatiotemporal patterns of the “two modernizations” in 67 prefectures of the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2022 and examines the related mechanisms. To this end, an index system is constructed, and the entropy method, coupling coordination degree, and geographic detector method are employed for analysis. The results show the following: (1) During the study period, the level of the “two modernizations” in the Yellow River Basin increased significantly, showing a spatial distribution pattern of high in the east and low in the west. (2) The type of coupled coordination of the “two modernizations” has evolved from being mostly disorderly to being dominated by reluctant coordination, with the scope of primary and secondary coordination steadily expanding. (3) There is considerable spatial agglomeration in the coupled coordination of the “two modernizations”. For instance, a core area of extreme hotspots has formed in Shandong Province, while two cold-spot agglomeration areas have emerged in Shanxi Province and Gansu-Ningxia Provinces. (4) The spatial differentiation pattern of coupled coordinated development is the result of synergies and interactions among multiple factors. Core drivers include the economy, the market, and digital finance. Agri-tech and income are secondary drivers, while transportation significantly interacts with other factors. This study strengthens our theoretical understanding of the coupled coordination of the “two modernizations” and provides a policy reference for promoting new urbanization, agricultural modernization, and integrated urban-rural development in the region.

Key words: new urbanization, agricultural modernization, coupling coordination, spatio-temporal pattern, geographic detector, Yellow River Basin

李占稳, 吴文恒, 姚涵刚, 朱昱泽, 李钰萱. 黄河流域新型城镇化与农业现代化耦合协调的时空格局及驱动机制[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(10): 1878-1891.

LI Zhanwen, WU Wenheng, YAO Hangang, ZHU Yuze, LI Yuxuan. Spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanism of coupling coordination between new urbanization and agricultural modernization in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(10): 1878-1891.

图/表 12

图1

图2

表1

黄河流域“两化”耦合协调指标体系"

目标层	一级指标	二级指标	指标含义	指标属性
新型城镇化	人口城镇化	常住人口城镇化率/%	城镇常住人口/年末常住人口	+
		城镇人口密度/人·km^-2	城镇常住人口/建成区面积	+
		第二产业从业人员比例/%	第二产业从业人员/总就业人员	+
		第三产业从业人员比例/%	第三产业从业人员/总就业人员	+
	经济城镇化	第二、三产业产值占比/%	第二、三产业产值/地区生产总值	+
		人均GDP/元	地区生产总值/年末总人口	+
		城镇居民人均可支配收入/元	直接获取	+
		城镇居民人均生活消费支出/元	直接获取	+
	社会城镇化	人均社会消费品零售额/元	社会消费品零售总额/年末常住人口	+
		互联网接入用户/户	互联网接入用户	+
		卫生技术人员数/人	卫生技术人员数	+
		卫生机构床位数/张·10^-4人	卫生机构床位数/年末常住人口	+
		城镇登记失业率/%	直接获取	-
	空间城镇化	建成区面积/km²	建成区面积	+
		建成区经济密度/10⁸元·km^-2	第二、三产业产值/建成区面积	+
		人均城市道路面积/m²	城区道路总面积/城区总人口	+
	生态城镇化	人均公园绿地面积/m²	直接获取	+
		建成区绿化率/%	直接获取	+
		污水处理厂集中处理率/%	达到排放标准的城市生活污水数量/城市生活污水排放总量	+
		生活垃圾无害化处理率/%	无害化处理的城镇垃圾数量/生活垃圾产生总量	+
农业现代化	农业投入水平	中间投入/10⁴元	农林牧渔总产值-农林牧渔增加值	-
		农村用电量/10⁴ kW·h	农村用电量	+
		单位耕地面积农机总动力/kW·hm^-2	农机总动力/耕地面积	+
		粮食播种面积占比/%	粮食播种面积/农作物播种面积	+
	农业产出水平	土地生产率/10⁴元·hm^-2	农林牧渔总产值/耕地面积	+
		农业产出率/%	农林牧渔增加值/农林牧渔总产值	+
		农耕生产率/10⁴元·kW^-1	农林牧渔增加值/农机总动力	+
		粮食作物单产/t·hm^-2	粮食产量/粮食播种面积	+
	农村社会发展水平	农村人均用电量/kW·h	农村用电量/农村常住人口	+
		农村居民收入水平/元	农民人均可支配收入	+
		农村居民消费水平/元	农村居民人均消费支出	+
	农业经营产业化	农业社会化服务发展程度/%	农林牧渔服务业产值/农林牧渔业总产值	+
		地理标志农产品数量/个	直接获取	+
		国家农业科技园区数量/个	直接获取	+
		农业产业化国家重点龙头企业数量/个	直接获取	+
	农业可持续发展	人均耕地面积/hm²	耕地面积/农村常住人口	+
		中间消耗产出率/%	中间消耗/农林牧渔增加值	-
		单位耕地面积化肥施用量/t·hm^-2	化肥施用量/耕地面积	-
		植被覆盖率	归一化植被指数	+

表1

表2

图3

图4

表3

图5

表4

表5

图6

图7

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耦合协调度	协调等级	耦合协调度	协调等级
[0.0~0.2]	严重失调	(0.6~0.7]	初级协调
(0.2~0.3]	中度失调	(0.7~0.8]	中级协调
(0.3~0.4]	轻度失调	(0.8~0.9]	良好协调
(0.4~0.5]	濒临失调	(0.9~1.0]	优质协调
(0.5~0.6]	勉强协调

年份	全局Moran's I	P值
2010	0.306^***	0.000
2016	0.310^***	0.000
2022	0.339^***	0.000

变量类型	驱动因素	符号	解释说明
被解释变量	耦合协调度	D	耦合协调度模型计算结果
	经济	eco	第二、三产业增加值
	市场	mar	社会消费品零售总额
	数字金融	dfin	数字普惠金融指数
	收入	inco	城镇居民可支配收入/农村居民可支配收入
	人口	pop	第二、三产业从业人员/从业人员总数
解释变量	农业科技	atech	农业机械总动力
	交通	tra	公路里程/行政区面积
	开放	open	进出口总额/GDP
	政府	gov	财政支出/GDP
	创新	inno	科学技术支出/财政支出

序号		2010年			2016年			2022年
序号	因子排序	q值	P值	因子排序	q值	P值	因子排序	q值	P值
1	eco	0.761^***	0.000	eco	0.807^***	0.000	eco	0.831^***	0.000
2	mar	0.751^***	0.000	mar	0.795^***	0.000	mar	0.818^***	0.000
3	dfin	0.664^***	0.000	inno	0.650^***	0.000	dfin	0.728^***	0.000
4	inno	0.624^***	0.000	open	0.612^***	0.000	open	0.644^***	0.000
5	gov	0.555^***	0.000	dfin	0.588^***	0.000	gov	0.637^***	0.000
6	open	0.531^**	0.019	gov	0.574^***	0.005	tra	0.530^***	0.004
7	inco	0.515^***	0.000	tra	0.535^***	0.002	atech	0.503^**	0.025
8	pop	0.510^***	0.002	atech	0.484^**	0.016	inno	0.388^**	0.022
9	atech	0.394^*	0.045	inco	0.409^**	0.012	pop	0.331^*	0.069
10	tra	0.302^*	0.087	pop	0.239^*	0.056	inco	0.202^*	0.083