南疆县域生态-经济协调性评估及可持续发展分区

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.738

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于当量因子法估算2000—2020年南疆地区生态系统服务价值（Ecosystem services value，ESV），应用生态-经济协调度（Ecological-economic harmony，EEH）模型从县域尺度分析南疆地区生态-经济发展协调水平及其空间分布特征，最后通过生态贡献率模型揭示各县域ESV变化主要贡献因子，并结合其ESV损益状况和生态-经济协调水平进行差异化的可持续发展分区。结果表明：（1）2000—2020年南疆地区ESV整体呈先上升后下降趋势，总量缩减167.99×10⁸元；草地和水体的ESV占总量的70%以上，单项ESV调节服务（57.1%）>支持服务（27.5%）>文化服务（10.0%）>供给服务（5.4%）；草地和农田是多数ESV实现增益（减损）县域的主导地类。（2）2000—2020年南疆地区37个县域ESV均有不同程度减损，ESV实现增益县域共计9个；约80%的县域为生态-经济初始恶化区，其余县域表现为生态-经济协调稳定状态。（3）南疆地区整体呈轻度生态-经济不协调状态，少数生态-经济协调稳定县域主要分布于南疆中、东部地区。综合分析将南疆县域划分为林草生态-经济不可持续区、农田生态-经济不可持续区、水体生态-经济不可持续区、林草生态-经济持续稳定区和农田生态-经济持续稳定区5种类型。

关键词: 生态系统服务价值, 生态-经济协调性, EEH模型, 可持续发展分区

Abstract:

This paper estimated the ecosystem service value (ESV) of the southern region of Xinjiang, China from 2000 to 2020 using the equivalent factor method. The ecological economic harmony model was applied to analyze the coordination level and spatial distribution characteristics of ecological economic development in the southern region of Xinjiang at the county level. Finally, the ecological contribution rate model was used to reveal the main contribution factors of ESV changes in each county and differentiate sustainable development zones on the basis of their ESV profit and loss status and ecological economic coordination level. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the overall ESV in the southern region of Xinjiang initially increased and then decreased, with a total reduction of 167.99×10⁸ Yuan. Grassland and water ESV accounted for over 70% of the total, with single ESV regulation services (57.1%)>support services (27.5%)>cultural services (10.0%)>supply services (5.4%). Grassland and farmland were the dominant land types for most ESV gains (losses) in counties. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the ESVs in 37 counties in southern Xinjiang decreased to varying degrees, with 9 counties achieving ESV gains. About 80% of these counties were areas with initial ecological economic deterioration, whereas the remaining counties exhibited a state of ecological economic coordination and stability. (3) The overall ecological and economic imbalance was mild in the southern region of Xinjiang, and a few counties with stable ecological and economic coordination were mainly distributed in the central and eastern regions of southern Xinjiang. Through comprehensive analysis, the counties of southern Xinjiang were divided into five types: forest and grass ecological, economic unsustainable zone; farmland ecological, economic unsustainable zone; water ecological, economic unsustainable zone; forest and grass ecological, economic sustainable, stable zone; and farmland ecological, economic sustainable, stable zone.

Key words: ecosystem service value, ecological-economic harmony, EEH model, sustainable development zoning

施金里, 徐丽萍, 李晓航, 高志玉, 席芸芸, 李智慧. 南疆县域生态-经济协调性评估及可持续发展分区[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(10): 1794-1804.

SHI Jinli, XU Liping, LI Xiaohang, GAO Zhiyu, XI Yunyun, LI Zhihui. Evaluation of ecological-economic harmony and sustainable development zoning in counties of southern Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(10): 1794-1804.

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年份	南疆综合发展系数	全国综合发展系数	社会发展修正系数
2000	0.33	0.32	1.03
2005	0.38	0.36	1.06
2010	0.39	0.41	0.97
2015	0.51	0.55	0.92
2020	0.54	0.57	0.94

类型	范围	说明
持续恶化区（-）	EEH<-1.0	区域生态环境恶化，经济发展与生境保护冲突，经济与生态环境发展严重不协调
初始恶化区（-）	-1.0≤EEH<0.0	区域经济发展对生态环境产生负面影响，经济发展与生态环境呈不协调状态
协调稳定区（+）	0.0≤EEH<0.6或EEH≥1.2	伴随经济增长区域生态环境可能正在承受越来越大的压力，或原本区域经济、生态环境都处于较低水平，经发展二者逐渐处于协调状态
初始稳定区（+）	0.6≤EEH<1.0	经济增速略高于区域生境质量发展水平，经济与生态环境处于协调状态
持续稳定区（+）	1.0≤EEH<1.2	ESV增速大于等于GDP增速，区域生态环境与经济发展间呈现出相互促进，高度协调发展状态

类型名称	类型组成	描述
林草生态-经济不可持续区	林地型（-）、草地型（-）、草湿型（-）、草水型（-）	以草地和林地为ESV减损主导地类的生态-经济恶化型县域
林草生态-经济稳定区	林水型（+）、草水型（+）	以草地和林地为ESV增益主导地类的生态-经济协调型县域
农田生态-经济不可持续区	农草型（-）、农水型（-）	以农田为ESV减损主导地类的生态-经济恶化型县域
农田生态-经济稳定区	农田型（+）、农草型（+）、农水型（+）	以农田为ESV增益主导地类的生态-经济协调型县域
水体生态-经济不可持续区	水体型（-）	以水体为ESV减损主导地类的生态-经济恶化型县域

年份	林地	草地	农田	湿地	水体	未利用地
2000	0.007	0.405	0.045	0.004	0.336	0.203
2005	0.007	0.431	0.048	0.003	0.304	0.206
2010	0.007	0.416	0.055	0.004	0.320	0.197
2015	0.008	0.417	0.062	0.004	0.313	0.194
2020	0.009	0.417	0.066	0.007	0.301	0.201

年份	2000—2005年	2005—2010年	2010—2015年	2015—2020年	2000—2020年
EEH	0.0119	-0.0477	-0.0445	-0.0184	-0.0095
协调类型	协调稳定	初始恶化	初始恶化	初始恶化	初始恶化