基于PLUS-InVEST模型吐哈盆地陆地生态系统碳储量时空变化及多情景模拟

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2023.066

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

土地覆盖变化能够改变区域碳储存能力，从而引起全球气候变化。研究土地覆盖变化对碳储量的影响，预测未来不同土地覆盖情景下的碳储量，对实现区域“碳中和”战略目标具有重要意义，然而目前针对中国西部生态脆弱区的研究仍有待探究。以新疆吐哈盆地为研究区，基于土地覆盖产品数据，结合PLUS模型和InVEST模型，探讨了土地覆盖变化与区域碳储量的时空变化关系，预测和评估了2025、2030年可持续发展情景，维持现状发展情景，经济优先发展情景下土地覆盖和碳储量的时空动态特征。结果表明：（1）近20 a来，吐哈盆地耕地和裸土地面积增加最大，其次是建设用地，而草地表现出最大的减少趋势，草地转为耕地和建设用地是最主要的转移类型。（2） 2000、2010年和2020年吐哈盆地平均碳储量分别为26.01 t·hm^-2、25.68 t·hm^-2、25.73 t·hm^-2，呈现出先降低后增加的趋势，平均碳储量累计减少了0.28 t·hm^-2，其中土壤有机质碳储量占比最高，约占总碳储量的94%，裸土地、草地贡献了最多的碳储量。（3） 2030年3种情景下，森林、灌木林、湿地几乎无明显变化，裸土地呈现出减少的趋势，而建设用地呈现增加的趋势。（4）到2030年可持续发展情景下吐哈盆地总碳储量较2020年增加了0.18×10⁶ t，维持现状发展情景和经济优先发展情景下分别减少了0.30×10⁶t、1.01×10⁶t，经济优先发展情景下碳储量损失最大。研究结果可为吐哈盆地土地利用优化以及制定生态系统可持续发展措施提供依据。

关键词: 土地覆盖变化, 情景模拟, 碳储量, 吐哈盆地

Abstract:

Land cover variations can change regional carbon storage capacity, thereby affecting global climate change. Investigating the impact of land cover changes on carbon stocks and predicting the carbon stocks under different land cover scenarios are crucial in the future for achieving the regional strategic goal of “carbon neutrality”. However, ecologically fragile (such as land degradation and desertification) areas in western China remain to be explored. This study selected the Turpan-Hami Basin in Xinjiang as the study area based on the land cover product data, PLUS model, and InVEST model. Furthermore, this paper discusses the spatiotemporal relationship between land cover changes and regional carbon storage and predicts and evaluates their spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics under sustainable development scenarios, maintaining the status quo development scenario, and economic priority development scenarios in 2025 and 2030. The results showed that: (1) In the last 20 years, the Turpan-Hami Basin has the most significant increase in cultivated land and bare land areas among its various land use types, followed by construction land. Conversely, grasslands have exhibited the most notable decreasing trend. Additionally, the conversion of grassland to cultivated and construction lands was the main transfer type. (2) In 2000, 2010, and 2020, the average carbon storage in the Turpan-Hami Basin was 26.01 t·hm^-2, 25.68 t·hm^-2, and 25.73 t·hm^-2, respectively, indicating a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. The cumulative average carbon storage decreased by 0.28 t·hm^-2, of which the carbon storage of soil organic matter accounted for the highest proportion, approximately 94% of the total carbon storage. Bare land and grassland contributed the most to carbon storage. (3) Under the three scenarios in 2030, no noticeable change was observed in forests, shrubbery, and wetlands; moreover, bare land showed a decreasing trend, while construction land showed an increasing trend in land cover. (4) By 2030, the total carbon storage of Turpan-Hami Basin under the sustainable development scenario increased by 0.18×10⁶t than that in 2020 and decreased by 0.30×10⁶t and 1.01×10⁶t under the status quo development and economic development scenarios, respectively. Among the three scenarios, the carbon storage loss was highest under the economic development scenario. These results provide a basis for land use optimization and sustainable ecosystem development measures in the Turpan-Hami Basin.

Key words: land cover change, scenario simulation, carbon storage, Turpan-Hami Basin

韩楚翘, 郑江华, 王哲, 于雯婕. 基于PLUS-InVEST模型吐哈盆地陆地生态系统碳储量时空变化及多情景模拟[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(2): 260-269.

HAN Chuqiao, ZHENG Jianghua, WANG Zhe, YU Wenjie. Spatiotemporal variation and multiscenario simulation of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems in the Turpan-Hami Basin based on PLUS-InVEST model[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(2): 260-269.

图/表 9

图1

表1

表2

吐哈盆地不同土地覆盖类型碳库碳密度"

土地覆盖类型	$C a b o v e$	$C b e l o w$	$C s o i l$	$C t o t a l$
耕地	2.87	3.41	87.47	93.75
森林	30.58	9.03	123.11	162.71
灌木林	4.34	2.85	72.90	80.09
草地	0.48	4.24	86.25	90.98
水体	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
裸土地	0.45	0.44	15.55	16.44
建设用地	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
湿地	1.83	1.46	242.84	246.14

表2

图2

图3

表3

图4

表4

表5

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数据		类型	分辨率	来源
土地利用数据		栅格	30 m	中国年度土地覆盖数据集（https://zenodo.org/record/5210928#collapseCitations）
地形数据	DEM	栅格	30 m	地理空间数据云（http://www.gscloud.cn）
地形数据	坡度	栅格	30 m	基于DEM数据得到
气象数据	年平均气温	栅格	1 km	资源环境科学与数据中心（https://www.resdc.cn/）资源环境科学与数据中心（https://www.resdc.cn/）
气象数据	年平均降水量	栅格	1 km
路网数据	与道路的距离	栅格	30 m	OpenStreetMap（https://www.openstreetmap.org/），利用ArcGIS的欧氏距离计算得到
社会经济数据	GDP	栅格	1 km	资源环境科学与数据中心（https://www.resdc.cn/）资源环境科学与数据中心（https://www.resdc.cn/）
社会经济数据	人口	栅格	1 km

土地覆盖类型	2000年	2005年	2010年	2015年	2020年
耕地	17.7707	20.1326	22.4675	25.1001	23.7995
森林	5.8859	6.1228	6.3795	6.9071	7.1124
灌木林	0.0004	0.0003	0.0003	0.0003	0.0003
草地	222.0520	216.7252	208.6479	220.2085	207.8454
水体	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
裸土地	300.4230	300.8483	301.6903	298.9310	301.5034
建设用地	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
湿地	0.0054	0.0057	0.0055	0.0064	0.0068

土地覆盖类型	可持续发展情景		维持现状情景		经济优先发展情景
土地覆盖类型	2025年	2030年	2025年	2030年	2025年	2030年
耕地	253.948	230.648	261.920	272.906	233.382	224.268
森林	43.719	43.731	45.871	47.852	42.731	42.722
灌木林	0.004	0.004	0.004	0.003	0.004	0.004
草地	2284.593	2311.071	2273.929	2254.925	2304.613	2306.341
水体	39.761	39.761	39.750	38.381	39.744	39.726
裸土地	18332.667	18334.358	18332.667	18334.358	18332.667	18334.358
建设用地	45.281	40.398	45.831	51.545	46.835	52.575
湿地	0.028	0.028	0.028	0.030	0.028	0.028

土地覆盖类型	可持续发展情景		维持现状发展情景		经济优先发展情景
土地覆盖类型	2025年	2030年	2025年	2030年	2025年	2030年
耕地	23.8065	21.6222	24.5539	25.5837	21.8785	21.0241
森林	7.1137	7.1156	7.4638	7.7862	6.9529	6.9515
灌木林	0.0003	0.0003	0.0003	0.0002	0.0003	0.0003
草地	207.8500	210.2589	206.8798	205.1508	209.6714	209.8286
水体	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
裸土地	301.4156	301.4434	301.4156	301.4434	301.4156	301.4434
建设用地	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
湿地	0.0069	0.0069	0.0069	0.0074	0.0069	0.0069
总计	540.1930	540.4474	540.3203	539.9718	539.9257	539.2548