昆仑山北坡高山流域洪水变化特征

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.175

干旱区地理 ›› 2024, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (11): 1816-1827.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.175

• 第三次新疆综合科学考察 • 上一篇下一篇

昆仑山北坡高山流域洪水变化特征

仇泽炜¹^,²(), 方功焕¹(), 陈亚宁¹, 朱成刚¹, 梁文婷¹^,², 邸彦峰¹^,², 吕浩东¹^,²

1.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室，干旱区生态安全与可持续发展重点实验室，新疆乌鲁木齐 830011
2.中国科学院大学，北京 100049

收稿日期:2024-03-18 修回日期:2024-06-11 出版日期:2024-11-25 发布日期:2024-12-03
通讯作者: 方功焕（1989-），女，博士，副研究员，主要从事干旱区高寒山区水文过程研究. E-mail: fanggh@ms.xjb.ac.cn
作者简介:仇泽炜（1998-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事干旱区水资源与生态水文研究. E-mail: qiuzewei22@mails.ucas.ac.cn
基金资助:
新疆维吾尔自治区面上项目(2022D01A348);第三次新疆科学考察-昆仑山北坡水资源开发潜力及利用途径科学考察项目(2021xjkk0100)

Characteristics of flood change in alpine watershed on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains

QIU Zewei¹^,²(), FANG Gonghuan¹(), CHEN Yaning¹, ZHU Chenggang¹, LIANG Wenting¹^,², DI Yanfeng¹^,², LYU Haodong¹^,²

1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2024-03-18 Revised:2024-06-11 Published:2024-11-25 Online:2024-12-03

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

洪水作为最具破坏力的自然灾害之一，在全球变暖背景下，高海拔山区洪水发生的强度和时间已经发生了显著变化，对人类社会和生态系统造成了深远的影响。因此，利用MissForest方法填补昆仑山北坡6大流域的出山口日流量序列，分析6条源流6个出山口站点1961—2022年的洪水强度、发生时间、起涨消退时间以及年最大洪水日平均流量的变化趋势。结果表明：（1）97%的年最大1日流量（AMF）事件发生在夏季，乌鲁瓦提和同古孜洛克站的AMF呈增加趋势，而皮山、策勒、努努买买提兰干和且末站呈减少趋势，除皮山和乌鲁瓦提站外，其余站点AMF变化均显著。所有站点的春季最大1日流量（AMFSp）均呈增加趋势，其中，乌鲁瓦提、同古孜洛克和努努买买提兰干站显著增加。洪水发生时间方面，除皮山站的年最大1日流量发生的日期（AMFD）呈现出显著延迟趋势外，其余5个站点的AMFD显示出不显著的提前趋势；对于春季最大1日流量发生的日期（AMFDSp），6个站点均呈现出不显著提前的趋势。（2）在洪水起涨时间上，同古孜洛克和且末站延长，皮山等4个站点缩短；洪水消退时间上，皮山和策勒站延长，其他站点缩短，整体变化趋势不显著。年最大洪水日平均流量方面，皮山站显著增加，努努买买提兰干和且末站显著减少，其他站点减少趋势不显著。研究成果对提升干旱区水文生态效益、防洪减灾及区域水管理和灾害风险评估具有重要意义。

关键词: MissForest, 最大1日流量, 洪水过程, 昆仑山北坡

Abstract:

Flooding is one of the most devastating natural disasters, and under the influence of global warming, the magnitude and timing of floods in high-altitude mountain regions have experienced notable changes, significantly affecting human societies and ecosystems. This study employs the MissForest algorithm to impute daily discharge data for six mountain passes on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains, Xinjiang, China, analyzing trends in flood magnitude, timing, rise and recede durations for six source streams and mountain passes from 1961 to 2022, as well as the daily average annual maximum flood discharge. The key findings are as follows: (1) 97% of the annual maximum 1-day flow (AMF) events occur during the summer season. The AMF at Wuluwati and Tongguziluoke stations shows an increasing trend, while Pishan, Qira, Nunumaimaitilangan, and Qiemo stations exhibit a decreasing trend. Changes in AMF are statistically significant at all stations except Pishan and Wuluwati. The spring maximum 1-day flow (AMFSp) at all stations shows an increasing trend, with the most pronounced increases at Wuluwati, Tongguziluoke, and Nunumaimaitilangan stations. Regarding flood timing, the annual maximum 1-day flow date (AMFD) at five stations (excluding Pishan) exhibits an insignificant trend toward earlier occurrences. For the spring maximum 1-day flow date (AMFDSp), none of the six stations show a significant trend toward earlier timing. (2) Concerning the rise time of flooding, Tongguziluoke and Qiemo stations experienced an extension, while the other four stations showed a reduction. For the recede time of floods, Pishan and Qira stations have extended durations, whereas the other stations have shorter recede times, with no significant overall trend. The average daily discharge during the maximum flood has significantly increased at Pishan Station, significantly decreased at Nunumaimaitilangan and Qiemo stations, and has shown no significant change at the other stations. These findings are crucial for improving hydrological and ecological management, flood mitigation, disaster reduction, regional water management, and disaster risk assessment in arid regions.

Key words: MissForest, maximum 1-day flow, flood process, northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains

仇泽炜, 方功焕, 陈亚宁, 朱成刚, 梁文婷, 邸彦峰, 吕浩东. 昆仑山北坡高山流域洪水变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(11): 1816-1827.

QIU Zewei, FANG Gonghuan, CHEN Yaning, ZHU Chenggang, LIANG Wenting, DI Yanfeng, LYU Haodong. Characteristics of flood change in alpine watershed on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(11): 1816-1827.

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河流	水文站	流域面积/km²	水文站高程/m
皮山河	皮山	2227	2300
喀拉喀什河	乌鲁瓦提	19983	1850
玉龙喀什河	同古孜洛克	14575	1650
策勒河	策勒	2032	1515
克里雅河	努努买买提兰干	7358	1880
车尔臣河	且末	26822	1250

水文站	缺失率	缺失年份
皮山	0.43	1990—2000，2003，2006，2012—2022
乌鲁瓦提	0.27	1999—2000，2004，2012—2022
同古孜洛克	0.20	1961，2012—2022
策勒	0.41	1990—2000，2004，2006，2012—2022
努努买买提兰干	0.40	1990—2000，2004，2006，2012—2022
且末	0.41	1975，1990—2000，2004，2006，2012—2022

水文站	训练数据样本量/d	验证数据样本量（随机重复实验20次）	RMSE	KGE	NSE	R²
皮山	12982	365	6.50	0.79	0.81	0.82
乌鲁瓦提	16562	365	27.41	0.83	0.71	0.80
同古孜洛克	18142	365	29.84	0.80	0.86	0.87
策勒	13360	365	2.39	0.78	0.70	0.74
努努买买提兰干	13574	365	11.14	0.84	0.77	0.77
且末	13276	365	7.63	0.70	0.68	0.68

水文站	指标	Zc值	趋势	显著性	水文站	指标	Zc值	趋势	显著性
皮山	AMF	-0.373	↓	不显著	策勒	AMF	-2.900^***	↓	99%
	AMFSp	0.541	↑	不显著		AMFSp	0.367	↑	不显著
	AMFD	1.476	→	90%		AMFD	-0.075	←	不显著
	AMFDSp	-1.085	←	不显著		AMFDSp	-1.073	←	不显著
乌鲁瓦提	AMF	0.560	↑	不显著	努努买买提兰干	AMF	-3.435^***	↓	99%
	AMFSp	2.352^***	↑	99%		AMFSp	1.817^**	↑	95%
	AMFD	-0.878	←	不显著		AMFD	-0.554	←	不显著
	AMFDSp	-0.306	←	不显著		AMFDSp	-1.136	←	不显著
同古孜洛克	AMF	2.172^**	↑	95%	且末	AMF	-2.489^***	↓	99%
	AMFSp	3.031^***	↑	99%		AMFSp	0.635	↑	不显著
	AMFD	-0.785	←	不显著		AMFD	-0.392	←	不显著
	AMFDSp	-0.630	←	不显著		AMFDSp	-0.891	←	不显著

水文站	1961—1992年			1993—2022年
水文站	平均起涨时间/d	平均消退时间/d	年最大洪水日平均流量/m³·s^-1	平均起涨时间/d	平均消退时间/d	年最大洪水日平均流量/m³·s^-1
皮山	8.09	7.19	38.37	7.47↓	9.43↑	44.23↑^**
乌鲁瓦提	9.90	8.38	303.59	9.70↓	7.93↓	288.62↓
同古孜洛克	10.72	10.00	366.99	10.80↑	8.60↓	364.45↓
策勒	7.25	7.03	18.06	6.53↓	7.50↑	14.70↓
努努买买提兰干	9.78	8.19	88.31	8.97↓	7.13↓	74.36↓^**
且末	9.34	9.87	43.22	10.22↑	8.00↓	40.31↓^***

昆仑山北坡高山流域洪水变化特征

Characteristics of flood change in alpine watershed on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains

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