暖湿化背景下中国天山气候风险动态评估和多情景预估

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.328

Abstract

Abstract:

Establishing a comprehensive climate risk assessment framework is essential for evaluating and predicting regional climate change. However, previous studies have primarily focused on climate disasters or climate change in isolation, with limited attention given to the comprehensive climate risk index (CRI). To address this gap, this study examines the Tianshan Mountains of China and develops a CRI based on four climate risk indicators: Drought, high temperature, low temperature, and temperature-humidity. This analysis utilizes observational data from 26 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2020, along with multi-model ensemble data from CMIP6, to conduct an integrated assessment and provide future projections of climate risks in the area. The results show that (1) Over the past 60 years, both temperature and precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains have steadily increased, demonstrating a significant warming and wetting trend. (2) The CRI has risen substantially, reflecting an increased climate risk in the Tianshan Mountains over the last six decades. Most areas in the Tianshan Mountains are categorized as having medium or lower climate risk, with the central and northern parts exhibiting relatively low risk levels, whereas the eastern and southwestern areas exhibit higher climate risks. (3) The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble data accurately simulate temperature and precipitation patterns in the Tianshan Mountains, making it suitable for future climate risk projection analysis. Under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the CRI is expected to continue to rise, indicating that climate risk in the Tianshan Mountains will increase, with the eastern part facing significantly greater risks than the western part.

Key words: CMIP6, warming and humidification, comprehensive climate risk index, Tianshan Mountains of China

PAN Yongyi, LI Xuemei, SUN Qinke, JIANG Xiaoxiao, GAO Hong, LIANG Xiaojian. Dynamic assessment and multi-scenario projection of climate risk in the Tianshan Mountains of China under the background of warming and humidification[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(6): 1135-1146.

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编号	模式名称	所属国家	分辨率/(°)
1	ACCESS-ESM1-5	澳大利亚	1.875×1.250
2	CanESM5	加拿大	2.8×2.8
3	NorESM2-MM	挪威	2.5×1.9
4	CNRM-CM5	法国	1.4×1.4
5	BCC_CSM1.1	中国	2.8×2.8

T_max/℃	T_g	T_min/℃	T_d
35≤T_max<37	等级1	25≤T_min<28	等级1
37≤T_max<40	等级2	28≤T_min<30	等级2
40≤T_max	等级3	30≤T_min	等级3

目标层	评价指标	权重
中国天山气候风险评估预测	干旱指数	0.42
	高温指数	0.30
	低温冻结指数	0.16
	温湿指数	0.12

Dynamic assessment and multi-scenario projection of climate risk in the Tianshan Mountains of China under the background of warming and humidification

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