陕西省固碳服务供需关系时空演变特征及影响因素

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.761

Abstract

Abstract:

Understanding the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing mechanisms of the supply and demand of ecosystem carbon sequestration services is critical for solving carbon governance problems and achieving dual carbon goals. Taking Shaanxi Province of China as an example, this study measured carbon sequestration supply via sequestration capacity and demand via revised energy consumption. It also analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and the transformation process of the supply-demand relationship of carbon sequestration services in Shaanxi Province from 2015 to 2023 and identified the dominant factors and interactive effects affecting the supply-demand relationship with the help of the geodetector method, filling the gaps on influencing factors of carbon sequestration service supply and demand. The results reveal that (1) From 2015 to 2023, the carbon sequestration supply in Shaanxi Province exhibited a fluctuating and slow growth trend, with significant differences among different regions, with only slight changes in spatial characteristics. The low- and high-value areas were distributed alternately from north to south. (2) From 2015 to 2023, the carbon sequestration demand in Shaanxi Province continued to increase rapidly. In 2023, the scope of high-value areas further expanded, whereas the scope of low- and sub-low-value areas decreased. (3) The supply-demand status of carbon sequestration in Shaanxi Province shifted from mild surplus to mild deficit from 2015 to 2023, with a tendency of deficit expansion. The supply-demand status of most districts and counties shifted in a “declining” direction. Regarding spatial characteristics, a high in the north and south and low in the middle pattern was observed, with surplus districts/counties and deficit districts/counties distributed in clusters and their boundaries being distinct. (4) The impact of carbon sequestration demand on the supply-demand relationship was stronger than that of supply, with energy factors having the greatest impact, followed by socioeconomic factors, and natural factors having the smallest effect. The annual average precipitation, private car ownership, civil car ownership, population size, and industrial waste gas emissions were dominant factors affecting the supply-demand relationship. The interactive effects of the dominant factors were all higher than those before the interaction; however, the interaction between industrial waste gas emissions and other factors showed a nonlinear enhancement effect. Therefore, the interaction effects of other factors were all characterized by bivariate enhancement.

Key words: carbon sequestration services, supply and demand characteristics, influencing factors, Shaanxi Province

GENG Tianwei, HAN Wanxing, LIN Fei, LI Zhenhuan. Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the supply and demand relationship of carbon sequestration services in Shaanxi Province[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(5): 939-948.

Figures/Tables 11

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References 23

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区域	2015年	2020年	2023年
关中	28.18	27.04	26.05
陕北	32.36	31.45	32.48
陕南	39.12	40.79	42.26
全省	99.66	99.28	100.79

供需指标	2015年	2020年	2023年
供需差值/10⁶t	29.46	10.58	-5.81
供需指数	0.17	0.05	-0.03
供需状态	轻度盈余	轻度盈余	轻度赤字

影响因素	初选因子	编号	q值	影响因素	初选因子	编号	q值
自然因素	地形起伏度	N₁	0.67	社会经济因素	人均居民可支配收入	S₅	0.21^*
	年均气温	N₂	0.07		社会消费品零售总额	S₆	0.28^*
	年均降水量	N₃	0.65^**		人口数量	S₇	0.32^*
	日照数	N₄	0.24		城镇人口数量	S₈	0.14
	草地面积	N₅	0.11	能源因素	民用汽车拥有量	E₁	0.38^**
	耕地面积	N₆	0.05		城市公共交通运营量	E₂	0.16^*
	林地面积	N₇	0.11^*		私人汽车拥有量	E₃	0.39^**
	园林绿化覆盖面积	N₈	0.20^*		工业企业能源消耗量	E₄	0.31
社会经济因素	GDP总量	S₁	0.15^*		工业废气排放量	E₅	0.31^*
	人均GDP	S₂	0.05		工业固体废弃物排放量	E₆	0.29^*
	工业企业产值	S₃	0.08		天然气销售量	E₇	0.17^*
	第二产业产值	S₄	0.08		液化石油销售量	E₈	0.13

交互因子	解释力	解释力排名	交互类型
N₃∩E₃	0.86	2	双因子增强
N₃∩E₁	0.81	4	双因子增强
N₃∩S₇	0.84	3	双因子增强
N₃∩E₅	0.97	1	非线性增强
E₃∩E₁	0.43	9	双因子增强
E₃∩S₇	0.44	8	双因子增强
E₃∩E₅	0.72	6	非线性增强
E₁∩S₇	0.43	10	双因子增强
E₁∩E₅	0.79	5	非线性增强
S₇∩E₅	0.66	7	非线性增强

Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the supply and demand relationship of carbon sequestration services in Shaanxi Province

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